Show Notes
Last week we touched on three things you should do when markets drop. This week is the flip side: the one mistake that does more damage than all the rest put together. If you get this wrong, it can quietly undo years of good planning in a single scared afternoon. Joe is recording this while things are calm, on purpose, so it is ready for you when markets eventually get bumpy. The flight to safety - getting scared and abandoning your plan to run to cash the moment things look bad - is completely natural. It is wired right into us. And it never feels like a mistake when you are doing it. It feels smart, responsible, and prudent. Joe walks through three true stories from COVID, the years after 2008, and 2022, to show how the same mistake shows up in different "clothing" every time, and what it actually costs the people who make it.
In This Episode On any single day, the stock market is roughly a coin flip. But historically there has never been a 20-year period where it finished negative. The longer you stay invested, the more the odds climb in your favour. History has been very kind to the people who simply stayed in their seat.
Down markets are not a maybe. They are a certainty. And if downturns are coming no matter what, the answer was never to dodge them. The answer is to have a plan you can actually stick with through ugly stretches, so that when the fear shows up, you do not have to make a decision at all. You just follow the plan.
In COVID, people who pulled everything out in March 2020 waiting for good news were sitting in cash by June while the market had already fully recovered. The vaccine announcement did not come until December. The market did not wait for better news, and neither did the loss for anyone who bailed.
After 2008, some advisors started shifting client money to cash whenever they calculated another bear market was statistically due. The logic sounded reasonable. But from 2009 onward, clients who followed that approach missed one of the longest market runs on record, sitting in cash waiting for a crash that took years to arrive.
In 2022, people sold portfolios that were down 10 to 20% and locked in a guaranteed investment certificate (GIC) rate of around 5%. That locked in the loss, made it permanent, and left them on the sidelines while global stocks returned more than 24% in 2023, over 19% in 2024, and more than 21% in 2025. The guaranteed rate felt like a smart deal. The opportunity cost was enormous.
About: Your Retirement Planning Simplified is a weekly Canadian retirement planning podcast hosted by Joe Curry, CFP, CEPA, of Matthews and Associates, an independent wealth management firm. Each week, Joe breaks down retirement income, tax, and estate decisions in plain language for Canadians who are near or in retirement.
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are those of Joseph Curry, a registrant of Aligned Capital Partners Inc. (ACPI), and may not necessarily be those of ACPI. This podcast is for informational purposes only and not intended to be personalized investment advice. The views expressed are opinions of Joseph Curry and may not necessarily be those of ACPI. Content is prepared for general circulation and information contained does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any investment fund, security or other product or service.
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