TIP824: Copa Holdings (CPA): Is Buffett Right About Airline Stocks? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast NetworkShow Notes
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into Copa Holdings — the Panama-based hub-and-spoke airline whose investment case now turns on two of the most debated questions in the stock today: whether Copa is a structural exception to the airline curse — protected by a geography no rival can copy and a cost base only a handful of carriers in the world can match — or whether even the best airline in the Americas eventually gets pulled into the same gravity that has destroyed value for nearly every other carrier.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: (00:00:00) Intro (00:01:35) Why airlines are such a tough business to be in (00:03:55) What Buffett and other superinvestors think (00:16:47) Why Copa is different than other airlines (00:35:58) How being the best-in-class business can change the investors’ outcome (00:38:38) How Copa built its moat (01:01:14) How Copa can defend its moat (01:22:37) Valuation discussion of Copa (01:24:36) Whether Copa is valued attractively (01:27:30) Whether Shawn and Daniel add CPA to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community.
Track The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.
Try out our Portfolio Review Submit Tool.
Check out the Value Investor Club Article.
Read the Asymmetric Edge Substack Article.
Warren Buffett on the Airline Industry in his Annual Letters.
Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Transdigm, Berkshire Hathaway, FICO.
Follow Shawn on X and Linkedin.
Follow Daniel on X and Linkedin.
Related books mentioned in the podcast.
Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
Get smarter about valuing businesses through The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
Check out The Investor’s Podcast Starter Packs.
Follow our official social media accounts: X | LinkedIn | Facebook.
Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.
Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Plus500
Netsuite
Shopif
More from The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley follow up last year’s TransDigm pitch with the biggest monopoly in aviation: GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE), the engine maker behind nearly three out of every four commercial flights in the world. With roughly 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines in service, GE has the largest installed engine base worldwide. That’s the reason Chris Hohn bets about 30% of his $50+ billion portfolio on it.
In this episode, William Green speaks with Matt Ludmer, the founder & CEO of Aligned Wealth Management. Matt is a financial adviser to wealthy individuals & families, including clients who have entrusted him with tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. After decades working on Wall Street, he came to realize he’d misunderstood the meaning of wealth. That revelation led him to write a new book, “The Right Mountain: Practical Wisdom for Achieving True Wealth.” Here, he explores how to build a fulfilling life that includes—& transcends—financial success.
In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss Aritzia, the everyday luxury fashion brand that has become one of retail's most impressive compounders. They explore how a small boutique in the corner of a department store grew into a brand with exceptional store-based economics, a spotless balance sheet, and a huge untapped opportunity across America. With the stock falling even as the business posts some of its best growth ever, they debate whether this is a rare chance to own a durable compounder or a hot brand nearing its peak.
In this episode, William Green speaks with multibillionaire Sir Michael Moritz, arguably the most successful venture capitalist ever. He spent nearly four decades at Sequoia Capital, which invested in early-stage companies like Nvidia, Google, YouTube, PayPal, Airbnb, LinkedIn & Stripe. Here, he talks about his unconventional path to success, the role of temperament in investing, & what he learned from observing Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Jensen Huang & Elon Musk.
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley revisit the two luxury houses they passed on last time — Hermès (EPA: RMS), the 189-year-old maker of the Birkin bag, and LVMH (EPA: MC), the 75-brand conglomerate behind Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany, and Hennessy. Both stocks now sit near their lows: Hermès is down more than 50% from its February 2025 peak and trades at 32 times earnings for the first time in a decade, while LVMH has fallen to a five-year low after two straight years of declining sales — something that didn’t even happen in 2009. The luxury industry has lost roughly 70 million customers since 2022, the Chinese market that tripled between 2017 and 2021 has been shrinking ever since, and a war in the Gulf emptied the stores on the Champs-Élysées of their best-spending tourists.