The Erick Erickson Show

S15 EP196: Hour 1 - Where Things Stand in the Final Days and Why Undecided Voters Break for the Incumbent

The Erick Erickson Show

Show Notes

Erick Erickson opens Open Line Friday with the state of play in the U.S. Senate, explaining why late undecided voters tend to break for the incumbent party and why he still thinks Republicans hold the Senate even as early voting in Georgia, Texas, and Kansas looks grim for the GOP. He breaks down the polling averages for James Talarico, Abdul El-Sayed, Mike Rogers, Roger Marshall, Ossoff, and Keisha Lance Bottoms, takes Brooke's call from Atlanta, pays tribute to Sir Patrick Stewart, and argues that voters take away your power to fight the culture war once you break their economy. Senate races 2026: why undecided voters break for the incumbent party, Cook Political Report's call for a 25 seat Democratic House gain, and Erick's prediction that Republicans keep the Senate The Washington Post and George Mason University Kansas poll, Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton, and why Democrats answer pollsters at twice the rate of Republicans Georgia early voting, Rick Jackson, Keisha Lance Bottoms, Ossoff, and the case for leaving one line blank but still voting for every other Republican James Talarico, Abdul El-Sayed, Mike Rogers, and the Democrats' new "smiling warriors" message, plus Nancy Pelosi pushing back on El-Sayed Tributes to Patrick Stewart and Captain Picard, tariffs and Georgia farmers (Vidalia onions), and the Obama "love your neighbor" pivot

More from The Erick Erickson Show

Oct 30, 2026

Erick Erickson explains why he will vote the whole Republican ballot but leave the Georgia Senate line blank over Mike Collins, takes pushback from caller Joy, and argues that Republicans cannot win the culture war while tariffs and diesel prices wreck the economy. He also covers the fake Dan Sullivan fallout in the Alaska Senate race, Chinese farmland purchases in Texas, Florida Amendment 3 on property taxes, and his case for expanding the House and paying members of Congress $500,000. Georgia Senate race: Mike Collins, Derek Dooley, Herschel Walker, and why Erick will not vote for the lesser of two evils, plus Joy's call defending the hold your nose vote and more than a dozen pastors who texted support The economy and the midterm elections: tariffs, diesel prices, Georgia soybean farmers, truck drivers, and why Erick says voters grant a license to fight the culture war only if the economy works Alaska Senate race: reporters cannot find the second Dan Sullivan, Mary Peltola, the New York Times text messages, and the Alaska governor's warning about certifying the election Chinese land purchases in Texas, drought, diesel and grain costs, the slaughterhouse oligopoly, shrinking cattle herds, and Argentine beef imports Congress salary: Erick wants the House expanded to 1,000 members and pay raised to $500,000, with Orlando police salaries as proof, plus Vivek Ramaswamy's Ohio ad and Mar-a-Lago endorsements Florida Amendment 3: homestead exemption, property tax reform, and employee retirement benefits, with Erick saying he would vote yes

Oct 30, 2026

Erick Erickson uses Open Line Friday to go after AI hiring tools, from the Workday class action lawsuit over alleged age and race discrimination to the New York Times report on Gen Z job seekers rejected by chatbots, and he calls on Congress to ban AI from vetting job applicants. He also takes caller Vince on the Workday rejection loop, then turns to the collapse of SAT vocabulary rigor, his son's classical Christian education and senior thesis, Common Core and Singapore math, and the new data on toddler screen time. Workday lawsuit and AI hiring: the federal class action over AI screening bias, why rejection at one Workday company means rejection everywhere, the New York Times story on Gen Z applicants (511 applications, chatbot interviewers), and Erick's proposal to ban AI vetting of job candidates Why young people turn to socialism: no rejection letters, no human contact, minimum wage hikes pushing out entry level teens in favor of retirees, HR departments under fire, and a White House General Counsel hire stalled for four and a half months by AI resume filters Caller Vince on Workday rejections within minutes, vibe coded software replacing the Adobe suite, and Erick's gripe about monthly software subscriptions for Microsoft Office and Adobe The new SAT versus the 1980s SAT: Thomas Aquinas College study, Jeremy Tate and the Classical Learning Test, collapsing vocabulary and shorter reading passages, plus Erick's son's classical Christian senior thesis, Latin, Common Core renamed Singapore math, and Samford University Toddler screen time and slower speech from the National Survey of Children's Health, the Ukrainian bear with a landmine, the Pope on holy war, Dan Orlovsky and percent on the Pat McAfee Show, and TSMC in Arizona

Oct 29, 2026

Erick Erickson digs into the New York Times report that Mary Peltola's campaign, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee aides, and the Elias Law Group ran a "Ballot Composition Project" to put a second Dan Sullivan on Alaska's ranked choice ballot, and why he thinks the press is shrugging it off. He also covers Troy Jackson's Maine logging company that turns out to be a union consulting firm and the laundromat owner misled into his ad against Susan Collins, Abdul El-Sayed and Peggy Flanagan donor ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, and why he is leaving the Georgia Senate line blank. Plus a salute to the Milwaukee Brewers' World Series win. Alaska Senate race: Mary Peltola, the Ballot Composition Project, two Dan Sullivans, Jared Kurtz, Mark Elias, the DSCC, Dana Bash on CNN, and the Justice Department's weak certification case Why ranked choice voting invites ballot stacking, from Alaska to New York City, and why Erick says it confuses voters and erodes trust in elections Maine Senate race: Troy Jackson's logging company that is really a consulting firm paid by the International Association of Machinists, and the Scarborough laundromat owner misled into a Troy Jackson ad against Susan Collins Michigan and Minnesota Democrats: Abdul El-Sayed, Peggy Flanagan, Muslim Brotherhood donor ties, Haley Stevens on CNN, plus Dave Jolly and James Talarico on transgender athletes in girls sports Why Erick is not voting in the Georgia Senate race, rising antisemitism and extremism on both sides, and a congratulations to the Milwaukee Brewers on a small market World Series win over the big spending Dodgers and Mets model

Oct 29, 2026

Erick Erickson sounds the alarm on early voting data in Georgia, where Keisha Lance Bottoms could beat Rick Jackson for governor if Republicans stay home, and where the same weak GOP turnout shows up in Iowa, Ohio, Texas and North Carolina. He weighs Patrick Ruffini's numbers against a 3.4 percent third quarter GDP report, a likely December interest rate hike from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, and why tariffs, grocery prices and wages trailing inflation hurt Republicans heading into the midterm elections. Plus data center spending, the college work ethic problem, and a possible Canada trade deal. Georgia early voting: Keisha Lance Bottoms vs. Rick Jackson, Secretary of State turnout data, Fulton, Clayton and Liberty counties, weak rural and exurban Republican turnout, and absentee ballot requests Patrick Ruffini's national early vote tracker: 33 million ballots cast, Democratic surge in North Carolina and Georgia, and why Erick still thinks Republicans can narrowly hold the Senate (Ken Paxton, Mike Collins, Michael Whatley) Third quarter GDP at 3.4 percent, the data center building boom driving concrete prices, Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve on a December rate hike, Scott Bessent, and tariffs hurting the GOP Grocery price tracking in swing counties by Liz Mayer, wages six months behind inflation, and the affordability problem for Republicans College graduates and work ethic, the return of the Blue Book exam, Microsoft layoffs, and why Chick-fil-A alumni and classical education produce better workers Canada, the European Union and a possible Trump trade deal, plus a surge in Republican turnout in northern border states for Susan Collins and Mike Rogers

Oct 29, 2026

Erick Erickson breaks down the New York Times report that Obama-era FBI and Homeland Security investigators found evidence Rep. Ilhan Omar's 2009 marriage was fraudulent, why the statute of limitations stalled the case, and how Chief Judge James Boasberg is handling the sealed search warrant fight. He also takes listener calls on the border wall, munitions production, and Anduril founder Palmer Luckey's case that America should build weapons with the factories it already has, plus China, the power grid, and Taiwan. Ilhan Omar investigation: the New York Times report on an Obama-era FBI and Department of Homeland Security probe of her marriage to Ahmed Nur Said Elmi, the five-year statute of limitations, the Chris Hayes interview, and Erick's pattern-of-fraud theory involving her father's immigration status and her passport renewals Judge James Boasberg and the Justice Department: the sealed search warrant for Omar's home, 14 news organizations and Judicial Watch seeking access, the October 30 response deadline, and why a judge hostile to the Trump administration is still letting the investigation slow roll Anduril and Palmer Luckey: why American defense manufacturing should build weapons from existing factories like World War Two Jeeps and John Deere rockets, how Ukraine builds millions of cheap drones, and General Motors turning around munitions in six weeks Listener calls: border wall progress under the Trump administration, Rick Perry on surveillance and drones, the canceled migrant caravan, and a Dayton, Ohio caller on hypersonic missiles and what the United States does not advertise Power grid and Taiwan: the military preparing every installation to run off grid for 90 days, Chinese infiltration of the power grid, water supply and telecom, Europe's warnings about Russia, and Erick's case for being prepared without fear, plus Matt Gaetz and the Cheesecake Factory

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