Show Notes
Thursday, October 22: The Fed is poised to sit on its hands days before the midterms, and every economist in the Reuters poll expects a December hike anyway.
Rush and Reagan start by grading their own misses. They called a September cut, and the Fed hiked to 3.75-4%. Then they dig in.
The data. September payrolls came in at 29,000 against an 84,000 forecast. Unemployment is 4.2%, wage growth is the slowest since May 2021, and gas is back at $4. GDP and PCE land next Thursday, Oct. 29.
Warsh. Is his no-guidance style discipline or a communications problem? The hosts disagree, and CME FedWatch puts the odds of a hold at 72%.
The committee. Williams, Jefferson and Bowman want more data, Kashkari wants another hike, and Goldman's Hatzius expects a pause followed by a December move.
The verdict. They grade each other's December calls, and one host wins by a hair. A look at the Senate and House ratings follows.
Does a silent Fed build credibility or just confuse people? Tell us which side you're on.
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