Bill Nygren: The Art of Value Investing, AI Valuations & Finding Overlooked Opportunities

Louis-Vincent Gave, Co-Founder and CEO of Gavekal, joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on artificial intelligence, China's economic rise, global capital allocation, geopolitics, and the structural challenges facing Western economies.In this conversation, Louis examines the mounting fiscal pressures facing Western governments, rising borrowing costs, and the shifting balance of economic power between China and the West.We explore the massive capital expenditures surrounding artificial intelligence, the risk of historic capital misallocation, China's growing technological competitiveness, and the implications for corporate profitability and global markets.Finally, Louis discusses how technological advances are transforming modern warfare and geopolitics, where investors can find opportunities, and the challenges of navigating an increasingly fragmented global economy.FOLLOW CAPITAL THESISSpotify: [https://open.spotify.com/show/033WreqkyC5riEkudo1KxT](https://open.spotify.com/show/033WreqkyC5riEkudo1KxT)Instagram: [https://www.instagram.com/capitalthesispodcast/](https://www.instagram.com/capitalthesispodcast/)X: https://x.com/francobauerle0FOLLOW LOUISX: https://x.com/gave_vincentGavekal: https://web.gavekal.comLouis' Book Recommendations: https://research.gavekal.com/content/essential-reading/**DISCLAIMER**The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Carson Block, Founder and CEO of Muddy Waters Capital, joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on activist short selling, corporate fraud, quantitative strategies, passive investing, and the risks facing financial markets.Carson is one of the most influential figures in activist short selling. Through Muddy Waters, he has built a reputation for investigating corporate fraud, accounting irregularities, and financial misconduct across the U.S., China, and Europe. Over time, the firm has expanded beyond activist short selling into quantitative momentum strategies, junior mining investments, and other approaches to capital allocation.In this conversation, Carson discusses his career, from his early experience in investment banking and China to the investigation of Orient Paper that led to the founding of Muddy Waters.We explore how activist short selling works, how investors can identify corporate misconduct, and why distinguishing outright fraud from aggressive financial engineering matters when evaluating companies and structuring short positions.Carson also explains how Muddy Waters has evolved beyond its original strategy, including its quantitative momentum approach, junior mining investments, and the challenges of traditional fundamental investing in markets increasingly shaped by passive flows.Beyond individual companies, we examine how passive investing affects price discovery, why market structure may be becoming increasingly fragile, and how AI-driven labor disruption could affect retirement contributions, equity flows, and broader market stability.Finally, Carson reflects on what he has learned throughout his career, the challenges of generating returns through active investing, and what he would tell his younger self about how financial markets really operate.FOLLOW CAPITAL THESISSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033WreqkyC5riEkudo1KxTInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/capitalthesispodcast/X: https://x.com/francobauerle0CHAPTERS00:00 Intro00:48 Carson Block Introduction01:21 Early Career & Why He Moved to China05:35 The Reality of China's Stock Market07:36 Investment Banking & Corporate Fraud13:58 Why Carson Went to Law School15:48 Building a Business in China21:01 Discovering Orient Paper28:12 The Report That Launched Muddy Waters30:49 Why Corporate Fraud Persists32:21 Outright Fraud vs. Financial Engineering35:06 The Challenges of Activist Short Selling39:49 Why Muddy Waters Expanded Beyond Short Selling43:29 Quantitative Momentum Strategies44:48 Passive Investing & Price Discovery47:29 Junior Mining Investments48:55 Lessons From Investing in Vietnam50:00 Why Fundamental Investing Has Changed50:55 AI, Job Displacement & Passive Flows53:06 What Could Trigger a Market Sell-Off?53:53 Carson's Biggest Lesson From Investing55:42 Closing—Capital Thesis features conversations with leading investors, economists, and capital allocators on markets, investing, and the forces shaping the global economy.Hosted by Franco Bauerle.DISCLAIMERThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Paul Kedrosky, Partner at SK Ventures and MIT Fellow, joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on the AI investment boom, data centers, debt, the U.S.–China race, and what could ultimately break the current cycle.Paul is a longtime technology investor and entrepreneur, a Partner at SK Ventures, an MIT Fellow, and co-host of The Dick and Paul Show. His work focuses on the intersection of technology, capital markets, infrastructure, and economic systems.In this conversation, Paul explains why he believes the current AI cycle is unusually fragile, sitting at the intersection of technology, real estate, credit, and government policy.We discuss the massive buildout of AI data centers, rapidly depreciating computing infrastructure, falling token prices, rising debt obligations, and whether demand can grow fast enough to justify the capital being deployed.Paul also examines model commoditization, refinancing risk, and where value may ultimately accrue across the AI ecosystem.Beyond infrastructure, we explore the U.S.–China AI race, national security, and why a technology can be transformative without necessarily being a good investment.Finally, Paul discusses what could break first, where investors may find opportunities, and what investors should watch as the cycle develops.FOLLOW PAUL KEDROSKY:The Dick and Paul Show: http://www.youtube.com/@UC6mtvBoze8zQDxP3o-Ne7yA Paul Kedrosky: https://paulkedrosky.comFOLLOW CAPITAL THESISSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033WreqkyC5riEkudo1KxTInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/capitalthesispodcast/X: https://x.com/francobauerle0CHAPTERS00:00 Intro01:00 Paul Kedrosky Introduction01:28 The Four Forces Behind the AI Bubble07:23 What Breaks First?10:00 Cracks in Data Center Debt & Treasuries12:25 Falling Token Prices, Debt & Refinancing15:06 China, Token Commoditization & Pricing Pressure16:17 Transformative Technology ≠ Good Investment17:23 Why AI Infrastructure Depreciates Differently21:03 The U.S.–China AI Race25:13 AI Risk & What Could Force the Race to Slow29:25 Anthropic, OpenAI & the IPO Capital Crunch34:17 Why Investors Ignore the Risks36:03 Where Paul Sees Investment Opportunities40:15 Which Hyperscalers Could Benefit From AI?43:22 Where to Follow Paul44:05 Closing—Capital Thesis features conversations with leading investors, economists, and capital allocators on markets, investing, and the forces shaping the global economy.Hosted by Franco Bauerle.DISCLAIMERThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

David Woo joins Capital Thesis for a wide-ranging conversation on global markets, artificial intelligence, monetary policy, and geopolitics.David is a Columbia PhD economist and former Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist, where he led research across global interest rates, foreign exchange, emerging markets, fixed income strategy, and economics.In this episode, David explains why he believes the surge in AI-related capital spending and debt issuance is playing a major role in pushing long-term bond yields higher. He discusses the Federal Reserve’s reaction function, the divergence between core CPI and core PCE, tight credit spreads, and what could happen to the U.S. economy if the AI investment boom begins to unwind.We then turn to the U.S.-China AI race. David argues that Chinese AI models have closed the technological gap with the United States much faster than expected and explains why that could have major implications for U.S. technology valuations, AI profitability, trade policy, and the broader economy.The conversation also moves into geopolitics, including Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Russia and Ukraine, Taiwan, and how David is thinking about hedging major tail risks across markets.CHAPTERS00:00 Intro01:00 David Woo Introduction01:36 What Is the Bond Market Telling Us?06:55 AI CapEx, Debt Issuance & Higher Yields10:03 Kevin Warsh & the Fed Reaction Function13:10 Why Core CPI and Core PCE Are Diverging18:12 Credit Spreads, Recession Risk & Market Complacency21:56 China’s AI Challenge to the U.S.25:37 Is the U.S. Losing the AI Race?26:10 Could the U.S. Ban Chinese AI Models?31:20 Gold, Oil, Options & Hedging Tail Risks32:55 Iran, Oil & the Strait of Hormuz40:30 Taiwan, Russia & Ukraine44:11 David Woo’s Advice for InvestorsCapital Thesis features conversations with leading investors, economists, strategists, and capital allocators on markets, macroeconomics, investing, and global affairs.Subscribe for future episodes.DISCLAIMERThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Peter Berezin, Chief Economist at BCA Research, joins Capital Thesis for a wide-ranging conversation on the risks facing the AI cycle, the outlook for global equity markets, interest rates, commodities, and the global economy.Before joining BCA Research, Peter was a Senior Economist at Goldman Sachs and worked at the International Monetary Fund.In this conversation, Peter explains why record-high corporate profit margins could come under pressure as bottlenecks in the AI infrastructure buildout begin to ease. He breaks down the economics behind the enormous capital expenditures being committed to AI, including his estimate that the broader AI ecosystem could ultimately need to generate roughly $10 trillion in annual revenue to justify current levels of investment.We also discuss whether falling token prices and greater AI adoption can generate enough demand to offset declining prices, whether AI is producing the productivity gains markets expect, and which areas of the market could benefit even if the current AI trade becomes overextended.Beyond AI, Peter shares his perspective on Federal Reserve policy under Kevin Warsh, the implications of greater uncertainty around the Fed’s reaction function, oil prices and inflation, Japan and the yen, U.S. Treasury yields, private credit, Europe’s structural challenges, the outlook for U.S. markets, and why inflation-protected Treasuries are beginning to look increasingly attractive.Finally, Peter discusses one of the recurring mistakes investors make during market booms: believing they will be able to recognize the top and exit before everyone else.CHAPTERS00:00 Intro01:01 Peter Berezin Introduction01:24 Why the Long-Term Outlook for Equities Could Be Unfavorable04:03 When the AI Supply Bottlenecks Begin to Ease06:52 Falling Token Prices, Demand Elasticity & Jevons Paradox08:38 The $10 Trillion AI Revenue Problem11:06 Is AI Actually Raising Productivity?13:22 Where Peter Sees Value: Healthcare & Metals15:21 Gold, Silver & Scarcity16:19 Kevin Warsh, Fed Guidance & the Term Premium18:49 Will the Fed Raise Rates?19:55 Iran, Oil Prices & Inflation21:35 Japan, the Yen & U.S. Treasuries23:21 How Higher Yields Could Pressure Stocks24:45 Why Investors Never Get Out in Time27:33 Stress in Private Credit29:26 What Would Make Peter Bullish on AI?32:25 The Long-Term Outlook for Europe34:20 U.S. Politics, Taxes & Tech Regulation37:05 Why TIPS Are Becoming Attractive38:36 Peter’s Advice to Young Investors39:27 Closing—Capital Thesis features conversations with leading investors, economists, and capital allocators on markets, investing, and the forces shaping the global economy.Hosted by Franco Bauerle.DISCLAIMERThe views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the participants and are provided solely for informational and educational purposes. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.Capital Thesis and its host are not registered investment advisers. Guests may hold positions in securities, assets, or investments discussed during the conversation. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Listeners should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.