Show Notes
Today we break down why the US-Iran war reignited over the Strait of Hormuz, why the June ceasefire collapsed, and what a waterway a single drone can shut means for oil prices, escalation, and how this conflict actually ends.
Mike "FLASH" McVay sits down with Dr. Michael Bosack, founder of the Parley Policy Initiative and former Deputy Secretary of the UN Command Military Armistice Commission, to make sense of the current escalation. The conversation covers the five ways wars actually end, the difference between a negative and a positive peace, the good, bad, and ugly of the memorandum of understanding that was supposed to stop the fighting, why the Strait of Hormuz was the flaw nobody was talking about, and why negotiation at this level is a game of poker, not chess.
Dr. Mike Bosack: https://www.parleypolicy.com/
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00:00 Intro
01:40 Bosack's path: maintenance, MQ-9s, and the Korean Armistice
06:36 What the Parley Policy Initiative actually does
10:10 Phases 4 and 5: the "now what" nobody plans for
14:39 The five ways every war ends
19:57 Negative peace vs positive peace
22:45 Inside the negotiating room: the war stories
31:09 The US-Iran ceasefire deal: good, bad, ugly
36:40 Why the Strait of Hormuz is the real crux
44:26 Why it's not really about the nukes
48:56 How allies complicate the deal
55:26 Negotiation is poker, not chess
01:05:41 How this ends: the range of outcomes
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