Kerre Woodham: Just how big is Labour's fiscal hole?

We may be at a turning point when it comes to property investment. Cotality data shows residential property is worth $1.66 trillion and still accounts for more than 50% of all household assets. But it also shows property sales and values are largely subdued. Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson told Kerre Woodham over the last couple of decades, strong capital gains and low interest rates were a big driver for the housing market. He says mortgage costs went down and selling provided capital gains as well, but this potentially won't last into the future. Davidson says property investment will probably need to be done a little bit differently, focusing on active management and cash flow rather than relying on capital gains. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation is still much higher than it should be, largely because of high global oil prices. Stats NZ data shows the rate's now on 3.7%, down from 4.1% three months ago. Domestic non-tradeable inflation —for things like housing, electricity, and healthcare— has been trending down. Internationally-driven tradeable inflation —for things we import and export— has dipped, after trending up. But NZ Herald Business Editor at Large Liam Dann told Kerre Woodham economists are forecasting anywhere up to 4.7% inflation for the December quarter, which is pretty ugly. He says even if the Reserve Bank were to look through the impact of oil prices, the Consumer Price Index would still rise around 3.2%, which they can't ignore. Dann says it's one of the reasons economists expect them to hike interest rates. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's an old saying, "there's money in muck". And that still holds true – waste recovery contributed $3.3 billion to the economy last year. But another old saying, "safe as houses", doesn't ring quite so true. There were just over 6,500 property transactions across New Zealand in September, according to the latest CoreLogic report. And that's around 14% fewer than the same month last year. It's the ninth consecutive year on year decline. New Zealand house values are falling overall, down 1.3% nationally over the year to September 2026, again according to the CoreLogic data. But it should be noted that it's a two-speed market – the South Island's going gangbusters and without that region holding up, the national average would be a lot worse. In Auckland, average property values are down about 3.2% annually. In Wellington, it's a dumpster fire. They're down 28% from the 2021 peak, which is pretty tough. Property used to be seen as a safe investment, people saw it as a way to make money. That's only relatively recently though, probably in the last 25 years. Before that, it was a place to live. It was a home. It was a roof over your head. It wasn't seen as a great big ATM that you could dip into and have enormous fun spending up once your equity got to a certain point or the mortgage was paid off. Unless you are a true professional and that's your job, you know houses, you know what to do with them, you can spot good bones, you can make a lot of a rundown property using your own skill and vision and abilities. I don't think anyone sees property as a safe investment now, do they? And even once you'd paid off your mortgage on the property, in the olden days, you had so much money. You had so much money left over, you had so much money in the property, you could upsize, you could downsize, you could buy a bach, you could use the house as an ATM again. But I'm not sure that that still stands true either. Even if you've paid off your mortgage, if you want to sell, you've got to find a buyer, and in a market like this, it's pretty tricky. If you want to downsize, if you want to go into a retirement village, if you want to move to be closer to grandchildren, it can be pretty tricky even with everything signed off. And that's kind of the contract we enter into, that you pay off your mortgage and then you have choices, then you have options. I'm not entirely sure those choices and options are there now. And I don't know how long it will be before the good old days return, if they ever do. I'd love to hear from those of you who have either bought a rental property, do you believe the good old days will return? Is that what you're doing it for, to make money from it, or do you just want a steady little 3% return on your investment and you're good at fixing things up, you don't need to employ a property manager, you're good. If you're a young person who's bought into their first home, and thank heavens for you because you are the ones holding up the market, would you or do you see your property as a home or as an investment? Something that's going to grow in value over time that you can then turn to your advantage. If you've paid off the mortgage, do you want to downsize or relocate and are you stuck? Are you looking to buy another property like a bach or a rental, or are you going to put your money into managed funds? That being said, the housing market is not what it was, we still have $1.66 trillion in housing assets, and it accounts for about 50% of household assets. That is a lot of money. Houses still cost a lot, we still need a place to live, you still want a place to raise the family. But are we back to the days of seeing it as a home and not an investment, or do you still believe that there's gold in the foundations of where you're living right now? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a text here, "talk about a beat up by ZB on politicians and threats. If you raise the possibility and keep flagging potential problems, you may get what you predict. So stupid to highlight this on your news at this time," says Paul. I don't think that's true. I think there are very, very, very few people worldwide, even with all the problems that abound, that would act in the way that this 43 year old Australian has done. Very few. But what people need to understand is that violent words, violent rhetoric can breed violent actions, and it may help temper the kind of madness that you see online. And the attack on the Australian independent MP Helen Haines is absolutely horrific, and it will make the news. It is newsworthy. The 43 year old man has been charged with a number of serious offences in relation to the attack, which was brutal and premeditated. Haines was unloading her car outside her electoral office when the man did a U turn and ran into her a number of times with his Land Cruiser, crushing her between the two vehicles. It wasn't a one off, it wasn't a moment of madness, it was several moments of madness. She has lost one leg, doctors are fighting to save the other, and in a cruel irony, it appears the man was a family friend. His father and stepmother have been friends with Haines for more than 20 years. She certainly sounds like one of the good guys, one of the very people you want to attract to Parliament. She had a life before entering Parliament, she was a nurse, a mother, an advocate for the rural community, and then once elected she led an anti corruption campaign within Parliament. It was a senseless, cruel attack on a good woman. And our MPs must have had a shiver go down their spines because many of them have been on the receiving end of personal attacks and death threats. My own MP, Dan Bidois, had to bring in the police when he received death threats that were deemed credible. Dan is a hardworking MP, a dad of two little ones, he's always at the local community events, does an amazing job for his constituents, but for whatever reason, probably because he had the temerity to stand for National, he received death threats. Speaker of the House Gerry Brownlee says they are well aware of the threats to MPs and even to candidates, and they take it very seriously. "Massive increase in threats to members of Parliament, particularly to women members of Parliament. And I think it's also the nature of those threats has changed from, you know, it might have been a bit of personal abuse about how someone presented themselves or other such, right down to now increasingly threats of physical violence as well. We've had to respond, we've set up a unit called the Security Intelligence Research Advisory Service, SIRAS, and they've got a team that will go out and be with MPs, they've deployed quite considerably during this period. But it's also candidates out there, and I think the work we've been able to do with the New Zealand Police, and I've got to take my hat off to them, I think they've done a great job in contacting all candidates and giving them personal numbers to be able to call should they feel threatened. Because, you know, you just don't know, you can't blanket everybody all the time, but you certainly need to have something that makes it very clear that if people are out of line, they're going to get prosecuted or at least deterred." And they do need to be prosecuted and deterred because that angry, angry rhetoric, that violent rhetoric can lead to physical assaults. I mean, look at James Shaw, he's one of the more reasonable, hardworking, lovely MPs, whatever you think of his politics, assaulted by a man in the street and needed hospital attention when he was in Parliament. And a lot of people throw off at the fact that Jacinda Ardern lives offshore with her family, well, in large part that's because of the truly horrific threats that were made not just against her, but her daughter, her lit

The Greens co-leader says she's not taking anything for granted as the party surges in the polls. The latest 1News-Verian poll has the Greens up one point to 16% — retaining a record high result— with National on top, rising a huge four points to 32% and Labour dropping one to 27%. Chlöe Swarbrick told Kerre Woodham people have felt disillusioned by legacy parties, and it's a global trend. "They have failed to reach the challenges of our time and tackle the big structural economic issues, in particular wealth inequality, which means regular hard working people are struggling to get by day-to-day." Swarbrick said whether you're on the left or the right, when you look at the current theatre —"or circus"— on Parliament TV, it is clearly not fit for purpose or working. "I think that's part of the reason we're starting to see a convergence from New Zealanders on all sides of the aisle, all sides of the political spectrum, on the need to just agree on some really big long-term plans to address the issues that we are facing. And that has really changed the tone quite a lot this election. "There are a lot of people sick of the tit-for-tat and just want genuine solutions." Swarbrick said it is really important for future governments to collaborate and work together on the big issues. She said the last few weeks since Parliament has risen have been "amazing", describing the last three years as "challenging" because of the amount of legislation that has been rushed through under urgency. WATCH ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.