Show Notes
Steve, Tom and Jacob are back (with working microphones this time) to unpack a week where the cracks got harder to ignore. The Iran ceasefire has collapsed, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running at a third of normal, and shipping insurance costs have jumped sevenfold. The lads explain why "oil" isn't one thing, why China's demand drop saved us last time, and why a genuine supply shock may still be creeping up on us. Then it's over to Korea, where the stock market swung wildly all week and the CAPE ratio has bolted from 17 to 44 in twelve months. Compare that with Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey sitting near 10, and the case for emerging markets and commodities starts to write itself. Plus: the AI earnings problem nobody wants to talk about, semiconductors now making up 20% of the S&P 500, what Buffett's IBM exit really tells us, and why margin debt at $1.5 trillion should have your attention. The title says it all: every country holds a chokepoint, and everybody's knackered. Watch Your Edge: markets can go sideways for 15 years or more. The era of quick capital gains is over, and the game is shifting to income and yield. Subscribe to the free Signals & Noise newsletter: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/ Want to go deeper? Join Signals & Noise Premium for weekly analysis, Stock Thoughts, and our monthly live coaching call. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.
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Steve and Tom are flying without Jacob this week, covering the week ending 16 October 2026. They open with the French supermarket chain whose freezers went from minus five to fifty degrees, blamed on a cyber attack and actually caused by software nobody bothered to update, then the Norwegian army’s Hertz hire cars and what the data trail says about how little of modern life we actually control. From there: French borrowing costs at their highest since 2002 with debt near 300 percent of GDP and no eurozone bailout coming, why Australia’s government debt is among the lowest in the developed world and what that means for an economy leaning on private borrowing, unemployment ticking up to 4.6 percent, and an ASX that has gone precisely nowhere all year. The second half is the one to stay for. Steve walks through John Templeton’s dynamic allocation framework: more in stocks when markets are cheap, less as they get expensive, and what that implies with the CAPE sitting at 42. Plus why ugly and cheap usually beats comfortable and expensive, why rebalancing needs a cash buffer, and the Brazil trade that took four years to go nowhere. There are charts this week, so grab the document in the show notes. Signals & Noise Premium: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/UoT6mohZ/checkout Find your investor personality: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types Everything else: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/ Questions: [email protected] This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.
Reports of a plague in Russia, Europe and China in a trade standoff, and the Middle East pulling in more players. Then the question we get most: how do you invest when the CAPE is 42? Steve, Tom and Jacob look at Australia's recession risk, government deficits and falling Gold Coast rents. They finish on timeframe, volatility and action, and why buy and hold is not the only way to be long term.In this episode:Reports of a pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia, and France in the headlines againEurope asking China to cut car exports, and what comes nextThe Saudi, Turkey and Pakistan pact and the HouthisWhy Steve thinks Australia is heading toward a recessionProperty, investor equity and falling rents on the Gold CoastHow to think about investing when the CAPE is 42Using simple rules, like the 200-day moving average, to think about drawdownsNext week: Templeton's market-cycle diagram and a deeper dive into short, medium and long-term strategiesWork with us:The Three Wells framework: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/The-Three-Wells-CCThe TMM Wealth Journey, 12 months of portfolio building: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Direct-Landing-PageSignals & Noise Premium, the full weekly issue and Weekly Video Review, $9.99 per week: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkoutFree investor personality test: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-typesLeave a review to help us grow.This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Views expressed are opinions on current events, not recommendations. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.
The RBA has raised rates again, property owners are weighing whether to sell, and a listener is rebalancing heifers. Against that backdrop, Jacob and Steve go through a risk hierarchy special. They start with how the industry defines risk (volatility and age-based risk tolerance) and ask whether that definition holds up. From there they work through Bessembinder's research: a tiny share of US stocks has created most of the wealth since 1926, and the odds of consistently picking those winners are very low. They also cover ergodicity and Nassim Taleb's casino example, why a 50% loss needs a 100% gain to recover, how the CAPE ratio and valuations shape how much you put into any market, and why defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and energy have historically been steadier than growth. The theme throughout: building knowledge around not losing money, rather than chasing the win. In this episode: The RBA rate rise and what it means for property How the industry defines risk, and why it is questionable Bessembinder's studies on stock picking Ergodicity and why the path matters Sector rotation and defensive sectors The barbell approach to speculation
Is Australia exposed to a diesel supply shock? Why does Greenland matter to the US military? And are AI companies actually making money? In this week's Signals & Noise (week ending 25 September), we cover the Donroe Doctrine, oil price swings and Strait of Hormuz rumours, rising memory chip costs, and why the AI business model faces a compute problem. We also look at why markets spend roughly 75% of the time in a drawdown, what that means for cash and rebalancing, and why the S&P 500 is close to setting the longest secular bull market on record on 20 October. 👉 FREE MASTERCLASS: How to Build an Antifragile Portfolio | Wednesday 30 September, 7pm Brisbane time Register here: https://totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile This podcast is general information and education only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.
Gold Coast broker Joel from Sunshine Finance joins Steve and Jacob to talk about the risks he sees on the lending front line, from property developments to private credit offers promising big returns. Joel comes from a construction background and says no before he says yes. He explains why commercial and asset finance rates move differently to home loans, why property development is riskier than it looks, and why any promised return needs a hard look at where it actually comes from. He also covers inflated loan applications, dealer finance where the repayments don't match the advertised rate, and what brokers without the right accreditations can mean for clients. We finish on what it all says about the cycle: rising fuel and living costs, stressed builders, and why cash flow and value matter more when markets get harder. Find Joel on Instagram: Joel.sunshinefinancebrokers This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.