Show Notes
Greg Fuzesi, Allan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss another week with rising sovereign bond spreads, higher energy prices and resilient growth.
This podcast was recorded on 23 October 2026. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan, it is prohibited to (A) use or share any material, commentary, information or other data received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party ("J.P. Morgan Data") in any artificial intelligence ("AI") systems or models, or (B) use automated means, including robots, crawlers, web-scrapers or other automated tools or scripts, to access, collect, extract or harvest any J.P. Morgan Data, including scraping of user data, content, metadata, pricing information or other information.
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A strong two quarters of growth comes with geo-divergence and some mixed signals on momentum, raising questions not about the strong past but about the future. A global rotation is projected, with the US downshifting from a boomy pace and growth in the rest of the world strengthening. Against this backdrop, both headline and underlying inflation are firming.
Greg Fuzesi, Allan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre continue to discuss the region’s fiscal challenges and energy price drags on growth.
Greg Fuzesi, Allan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the region’s fiscal challenges.
Despite the mixed messages from the sweep of global data on employment and spending, the PMIs are booming. The breadth of the rise across sectors and countries, along with a surge in the employment PMI, keeps us comfortable with our call for a cyclical lift that is joined by firming labor markets. For now, central banks remain in the New Testament and that’s a good thing.
A week of conflicting signals leaves us with more questions. We stand by our PMIs, which point to broad-based accelerating global strength at the start of 4Q. We also are impressed by the extra dose of US income, which was revised up alongside a stronger 2Q GDP outturn. However, the disappointing September payrolls number challenges a key feature of our outlook: the need for jobs to provide more support in extending the expansion. If nothing else, the tension in the data pushes off the need for immediate October rate hikes.