Ama Amo-Agyei with Rory Sutherland and Elfried Samba on founders and the cost of success

Caroline Orange-Northey, ex-Managing Director of Pinterest UK & Ireland, joins Rory and Elfried to talk about why marketing has been optimising for the wrong things, and why the best thing you can find online is a reason to go offline.She covers clicks versus decisions, why slow, considered platforms get undervalued, and what a maths degree brings to media.Caroline traces her route into the industry. She studied maths, wrote a thesis on Fermat’s Last Theorem, and fell into Talksport radio. She then spent seven years at News International before moving to the FT, Amazon and Pinterest. Her dad was a private investigator, which she says explains her nosiness.What we coverDesigning the exit: Caroline argues that brands want people to do something in the real world, yet the industry optimises for what’s easiest to capture online. Her point: “attention is fragmented, intention is usually whole.”Slow scrolling and considered purchases: Rory notes that scroll speed on Pinterest is about three times slower than elsewhere. Caroline explains why that matters for returns, not just sales. Ten tops bought on impulse and nine sent back isn’t the same as two bought and kept.FOBO: The fear of better options, and why around 70% of carts are abandoned. Caroline and Rory discuss how confidence in a decision drives action, and why a distinctive USP helped people feel sure.Pinterest Predicts: The annual trends report, with about 88% accuracy over six years. Caroline says trends on Pinterest last twice as long as elsewhere, and Rory explains why through the Lindy effect.Gen Z and the analogue turn: Pen pals, direct mail, vinyl and nostalgia for things they never lived through. Elfried and Caroline discuss why a generation raised on AI and feeds is reaching for the physical.AI raises the average but dilutes the premium: Why distinctiveness is back at a premium, why the CMO may be returning to the boardroom, and why Caroline wants AI to be an “and” conversation rather than an “instead of” one.Taste, choice and the toaster problem: Pinterest’s taste graph, and the line between personalisation and creepiness. Rory brings in Paul Eastwick’s Bonded by Evolution on first impressions in dating, and an experiment for Boots that made a catalogue “less irrelevant” for men.Life moments: Richard Shotton’s work on how major life events change brand choices, from broadband providers to bank accounts.Time well spent versus time spent: Why Pinterest doesn’t see itself as social media, plus the case for play, joy and manifesting your future self.Why you should never buy anything in an airport: Rory and Caroline disagree, with side trips into oven chips, EV range anxiety and Qantas’s non-stop Perth flight.

Les Binet, one of the best-known names in marketing effectiveness, joins Rory Sutherland and Elfried Samba for a wide-ranging conversation. He covers 38 years in advertising, why measurement can mislead you, and what a theoretical physicist brings to marketing.Les traces his unlikely route into the industry. He left a PhD in solid state physics for AI research in Edinburgh, then worked in a publishing start-up that Robert Maxwell squeezed out of existence. He ended up in BMP, the agency that pioneered account planning, after a three-day job transcribing TV ratings.What we coverPhysics versus logic: Les argues that physics is about the mathematics of change, with feedback loops and dynamics, rather than static logic. He says this is why he sees marketing as "pipework" and circuits.BMP's planning culture: At BMP you needed A-level maths to be a planner and an IPA effectiveness award to reach the board. Les covers how that rigour faded and what it cost the industry.Emotion beats rational persuasion: Marketing in the Era of Accountability (2007) surprised even its authors. Pure emotional campaigns outperformed rational ones on nearly every business metric, with short-term direct response the main exception.Short term and long term: The Long and the Short of It shows that short-term success doesn't predict long-term success. The key word, as Les says, is "and".How Rory influenced Les: A question at an IPA seminar led Les to prospect theory, Kahneman and System 1/System 2. That in turn led to BrainLab at the agency and, indirectly, to the company System1 taking its name.Additive versus multiplicative effects: The Cravendale test grid found TV alone gave about 5%, direct mail about 10%, and both together 32%. Why layer-cake charts mislead, and how ergodicity changes how you think about risk.Tight versus loose fitness functions: Rory and Les on why narrow ROI metrics create a "sparse monoculture". The carpet store flywheel, Wolfram on evolution, and "what you measure is what you do".Fat tails: Is marketing's value concentrated in a few outlier ideas, or in solid work that's merely "good enough"? Les and Rory disagree.Share of search: Using Google Trends as a free proxy for mental availability, plus a look at Rory's own share of search.Interests beyond your field: Brian Eno and generative music, why cheddar is the honesty test, and why music, beer and cheese rank above advertising for Les.Follow RoryInstagram: @rorysutherland_clipsTikTok: @RorysutherlandclipsX: @rorysutherlandLinkedIn: in/rorysutherland/Follow ElfriedInstagram: @elfriedsambaLinkedIn: in/elfriedsamba/https://www.butterflyeffect.xyz/Follow Les BinetX: @BinetLesLinkedIn: in/les-binet

Rita McGrath has spent her career on a question most companies would rather not answer: can a large organisation genuinely innovate from the inside, or does it only ever buy in what threatens it?In this episode she joins Rory to explain why big companies are so bad at handling uncertainty. Rita's argument is that firms run new ventures by the same rules they use for the business they already understand, and it kills them. No advantage lasts, so the replacement has to be in development long before you need it.This is a conversation about the gap between what companies say they want from innovation and what they actually reward, and about where the fixes are to be found.Follow RoryInstagram: @rorysutherland_clipsTikTok: @RorysutherlandclipsX: @rorysutherlandLinkedIn: in/rorysutherland/Follow ElfriedInstagram: @elfriedsambaLinkedIn: in/elfriedsamba/https://www.butterflyeffect.xyz/A @Sassy+ original podcast series

Sir Richard Harpin started with £50,000 and turned it into HomeServe, a business he sold for £4.1 billion. In this episode, he joins Rory and Elfried to break down the nine steps behind that journey, from copying the right ideas to knowing when to say no.

Joe Martin founded Tickle, a platform that lets people save an ad into their phone wallet instead of buying right now. Live at MAD//Fest, he joins Rory and Elfried to ask a blunt question: why do so many companies chase the same metrics as their competitors, and end up looking exactly like them?