EP 476-Vlad Ghita: Is the Rating System Still Broken? A Data-Driven Investigation
Perpetual Chess PodcastShow Notes
It has been over two years since FIDE implemented major changes to its rating system aimed at combating rating deflation. But are those changes actually working?
My guest, Vlad Ghita, joins me to dig into the data. Vlad is a Romanian arbiter, instructor, and chess enthusiast with a master’s degree in physics. In his new e-book, The Rating Revolution, he takes a rigorous, data-driven look at how the global rating system is functioning—and where it may still be falling short.
We discuss:
What Vlad calls the “participation paradox”
Which countries may be the most underrated
How age impacts rating expectations
Why some players feel stuck despite improving
Is the US rating system functioning more effectively than FIDE?
As discussed in the episode, many of these issues stem from structural imbalances in the rating pool—something Vlad illustrates through extensive analysis of nearly one million games .
In our conversation (and in his book), Vlad not only identifies problems but also proposes thoughtful solutions. As a dedicated coach and adult improver himself, he also shares practical advice for chess improvement.
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0:00- Intro
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0:02- Vlad’s joins the show, we being by diving into his chess background
Mentioned: Michael Franco/NoseKnowsAll’s free Lichess materials-
https://lichess.org/study/by/NoseKnowsAll
0:10- How Vlad’s curiosity about ratings was piqued around the pandemic, what he learned about ratings
0:11- What is the cause of FIDE rating deflation?
Mentioned: Jeff Sonas, Dr. Mark Glickman
0:16-What is “the participation paradox?”
0:21- Is the US rating system working better than FIDE’s?
29:00- Should FIDE institute adjustable rating floors?
31:00- What solutions does Vlad propose to improve the rating system?
42:00- Chess improvement lessons from Vlad’s playing and training experience
Mentioned: Chess Structures, How to Study Chess on Your Own, Chessbook
50:00- The pros and cons of working full time in chess
52:00- Thanks to Vlad for coming on the pod and writing an insightful book. Vlad has offered a discount to Perpetual Chess Listeners if you use the code “perpetual” at checkout.
https://vladchess.com/rating-revolution
If you are interested in getting coaching from Vlad, you can reach him via his website:
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