Show Notes
Let’s start with a quick market update after Friday’s brutal action The last few days have not been pleasant for owners of gold, silver, miners or indeed bitcoin. Friday saw on 8% fall in silver. How January’s euphoria has reversed. That’s silver for you. My ongoing thesis that gold, silver et al go nowhere for a year remains in place. The structural backdrop for gold’s bull market also remains: growing government debt, huge fiscal deficits, ongoing central bank accumulation, de-dollarisation. But the heat needed to come out of the market, and now it is doing just that. Silver I’m less certain about, as per usual. Its monetary role is largely gone, but if/when gold gets going again, silver will get pulled higher. Industrial demand remains robust. A year ago if you’d said silver will be $68 yet silver investors will be despairing, you’d have been laughed at. That said, I think it probably needs to go back and retest $50 before this correction is done. Miners will follow the metal. But it’s important to remember they are effectively leveraged financing vehicles. When risk appetite disappears, they get destroyed almost regardless of geology, though the good ones will come back. In commodity bull markets, investors usually lose money by selling the bottom, sometimes through despair, sometimes because too much leverage forces them to. I still lean toward “structural bull market, cyclical correction”. Though correction is perhaps to light a term when 50-80% of junior mining market caps get wiped out. The sector is not for the faint hearted, though we all love it when it goes up. Remember the great Shelby Davis quote, “You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time”. I need to conduct a proper bear market portfolio review, which I shall do very soon. As for bitcoin, its correction looks dramatic, but in percentage terms it remains fairly normal by bitcoin standards. I covered it in this week’s commentary: A quick housekeeping note I’ve decided to withdraw Lifetime Membership to The Flying Frisby at the end of June. The current price is £550 until 15 June. It then rises to £650 before being withdrawn permanently on 30 June. To be clear, despite what the sign-up process says, this is a genuine ONE-OFF payment for lifetime access. I manually convert memberships myself. If you’ve been considering Lifetime Membership, this is the final opportunity. Any problems, please message me on Substack or reply to this email. Finally, this week I appeared on the Grant Williams podcast, talking about the book. Feedback has been really good. Grant is one of the best interviewers out there and I really enjoyed it. Thank you for being a subscriber to the Flying Frisby. Until next time, Dominic
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More from The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more
Something a little different this week. On Monday I gave a talk for UK Finance called Making Sense of It All, about the multiple contradictions at work int he economy: rising bond yields yet equity markets grinding higher, huge investment in AI despite limited profit, and the growing squeeze on the materials needed to build AI infrastructure. (Many thanks to Duncan and Rhiannon for inviting me to speak). I’ve taken the deck and put together an online version - the first time I’ve ever attempted such a thing - I hope you will find it useful. The transcript is available above. Until next time, Dominic If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
After an extraordinary run which started in 2022 below US$20/oz and ended in January this year at US$122, silver has been working its way downwards. We have had a correction of almost 50%. Today we’re at $58/oz having been as low as $55 in July. We are almost certainly going to go back and retest that low, I would say, and silver is very much in a downtrend. $50 has been a huge line in the sand that goes all the way back to 1980 and for decades silver could not get above that number. Then, late last year, it cut through it like butter. What was resistance becomes support is one of the technical analysts’ guiding mantras, and there is every chance $50 will do just that. However, if there is one thing I have learnt about silver over the years it is that has an unrivalled propensity to let you down, which is I suppose my way of saying it could quite easily go a lot lower. It’s silver after all. However, the fundamentals favour silver. The market remains in deficit. The Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey forecasts a 46.3 million ounce deficit in 2026, which would be the sixth consecutive annual deficit. Never mind jewellery and investment demand, silver finds an enormous amount of industrial demand (~60% of annual demand), especially in electronics, because it is such a good conductor of electricity. The sudden increase from solar panel demand a few years back is thought to have triggered the recent run, although manufacturers are reducing the amount of silver used in each panel. Bear markets are a time to build. As an investor, you research the companies you might want to buy - there is no need necessarily to rush out and buy them - start building positions when nobody else wants them, make the purchases on your own terms. There is no need to rush. With that in mind, I am going to tell you about my largest silver position today. I even have an interview with the boss. It was a big winner for readers in the last cycle going from below 30c north of C$3, rising more than 1,000%. With the falls in the silver price it has now come back more than 50%, and I think it is worth taking a look. Its CEO is both young and competent and he is growing the company in an admirable way so that in 3 to 5 years time you are going to see something much bigger.
It’s my pleasure to sit down with with the man who “gold pilled” me back in the day with his book, The Collapse of the Dollar. James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, has spent five decades working in banking, finance and investments, making the case that gold is not an investment or another commodity, but money in its purest form. We discuss why he believes the US can no longer repeat the Volcker rescue of the 1980s, the relationship between sound money and liberty, and why he expects gold eventually to return to the centre of global commerce as technology changes the way money moves. James’ latest book is Money and Liberty and you can find his IEA paper here. This interview was brought to you by The Pure Gold Company If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
Good Sunday to you, We have a fantastic interview for you today. I sit down with legendary Canadian investor Frank Giustra to discuss gold, government debt and why he believes the world is entering the most dangerous geopolitical period of our lifetime. You can either watch the video or listen as a podcast via Spotify et al.Frank made his fortune in mining and natural resources, before founding Lionsgate Films, the world’s biggest independent film studio. His track record as a businessman and investor is superlative. We discuss why he believes this is no ordinary metals bull market, the accelerating shift by central banks from government debt into physical gold, the risk that another round of quantitative easing could trigger a dollar crisis, and whether gold may ultimately need to be revalued higher, dramaticically higher. We also touch on China, financial repression, critical minerals and why, of everything Frank owns today, gold remains the asset he is most excited about. Money Markets & More is the interview series from Dominic Frisby, exploring money, markets, gold, economics and the ideas shaping the world.🥇 The programme is brought to you by The Pure Gold Company If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
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