Show Notes
Trend following has long promised and delivered diversification, crisis protection and uncorrelated returns. Yet many investors still struggle to hold it through difficult periods. In this conversation, Andrew Beer and Eric Crittenden explore why that gap exists and how combining trend following with equities may create a more durable portfolio. Together with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen discuss the rise of managed futures ETFs, the debate between simplicity and complexity in systematic investing, and why algorithmic discipline allows investors to act when intuition fails. The episode also examines portfolio construction, product design and the evolving role of alternatives in a changing investment landscape. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Follow Eric on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series and the week's guests 02:19 - Eric reflects on recent market trends and challenging periods for trend followers 03:15 - Andrew shares optimism about AI, innovation and technological progress 06:25 - Elon Musk, SpaceX and the future of technological disruption 09:22 - The evolution of managed futures ETFs and the growing demand for alternative strategies 15:58 - How ETF liquidity works and why portfolio construction matters 19:40 - The case for combining equities and trend following into one portfolio 21:37 - Eric explains the philosophy behind his multi asset approach 31:15 - Product design, allocator behavior and why diversification often fails in practice 40:44 - Simplicity versus complexity in systematic investing 46:58 - Why elegant models often fail in real world markets 57:05 - Sharpe ratios, diversification and combining multiple return streams 59:52 - Andrew introduces the idea of Contrarian Tactical Alpha 01:02:55 - Eric on algorithmic discipline and why trends are uncomfortable to follow 01:05:26 - Final thoughts on trend following, risk management and portfolio construction Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski explore why the changing structure of global markets may be creating a very different environment for trend followers. They discuss why today’s bond selloff may represent a return to normal rather than an anomaly, how declining safe-haven benefits could reshape government debt, and why geopolitical fragmentation may increase divergence across markets. Mark also examines commodity shortages and the conditions that can produce explosive price moves. Finally, they turn to AI and machine learning, asking whether increasingly similar quantitative models are shortening the life of alpha and why trend following may prove unusually durable in an increasingly crowded investment landscape. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----
Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are less threatening than many investors assume, and how labor scarcity, rising wages and corporate reform are reshaping the economy from within. They discuss the return of domestic capital, Bank of Japan normalization and the government’s push into semiconductors, defense and energy. Jesper also makes the case that Japan’s broad economic expansion, industrial strength and accelerating corporate consolidation could make it unusually resilient in a world increasingly dominated by the AI cycle. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----
Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----
How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----