Is the Housing Market About to Crash? What the Data (Actually) Shows
BiggerPockets Real Estate PodcastSummary
Concerns about a potential crash in the real estate market have been prevalent, with many headlines suggesting an imminent downturn. However, analysts argue that while there are indicators to monitor, the current data does not support a crash in the near future. Dave Meyer, a seasoned real estate investor and analyst, emphasizes the importance of understanding the mechanics of market fluctuations, particularly the balance of supply and demand.
Meyer explains that a housing market crash typically occurs when there is a significant increase in supply or a decrease in demand. Recent data shows a decline in pending sales, suggesting a decrease in buyer interest, but this is not unprecedented and does not indicate a free fall. Additionally, while mortgage rates have fluctuated, recent decreases have encouraged some buyers to re-enter the market. On the supply side, new listings are expected to decline due to sellers' reluctance to part with low-rate mortgages, which could stabilize prices despite a modest increase in overall inventory.
Looking at historical data, Meyer notes that current mortgage delinquency rates are significantly lower than during the 2008 crisis, suggesting that forced selling is not a pressing concern. He highlights that the quality of borrowers has improved, with a majority of new mortgages being issued to individuals with strong credit scores. While risks remain, particularly related to potential job losses and rising mortgage rates, the overall evidence points to a stable market rather than an impending crash. Meyer concludes that the likelihood of a significant downturn remains low, and investors should focus on the data to make informed decisions.
Show Notes
Is the housing market going to crash? Everywhere you turn, there seems to be another headline forecasting the next housing market meltdown. But what’s behind all the noise? Actual data? Or just fearmongering?
If the housing market is going to collapse, real estate investors want to know, which is why we’re giving you the “crash math” on today’s show—the data that can help predict the likelihood of a housing crash.
There are a few key indicators that can tell us the direction of the housing market, and if we had all of them in 2008, we would have seen the writing on the wall. So today, we’ll comb through multiple data sets, show you which figures matter most, and share our own predictions about a potential crash.
We’ll even revisit the 2008 Financial Crisis, the warning signs most people missed, and the aftermath. Then, we’ll compare the numbers, trends, and patterns to what we’re seeing in 2026.
Most people agree that this real estate market feels “stuck.” But is this “Great Stall” the calm before the storm or simply a lull we have to ride out before things improve?
In This Episode We Cover
Six key indicators that can help predict a housing market crash
What would need to happen before the housing market is in (real) danger
Why the 2026 housing market isn’t anything like the 2008 housing crash
The “canary in the coal mine” all investors should be watching out for
The actual mechanics of a housing crash explained (“crash math”)
And So Much More!
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1350.
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