Christopher Whalen: The Fed Has Lost Control of Interest Rates

Christopher Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors, LLC and publisher of The Institutional Risk Analyst argues that investors may be overlooking one of gold’s most important signals: credit default swaps on U.S. government debt. He explains why rising concern over America’s creditworthiness can strengthen the case for gold, why long-term interest rates may remain elevated even if short-term rates fall, and why inflation is likely to remain a persistent problem. Whalen also discusses the dollar’s changing role in global reserves, the risk of inflating away U.S. debt, and why he expects a significant reset in housing and parts of the stock market.

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0:00 The overlooked indicator driving gold

1:02 Why the Fed may keep rates unchanged

3:22 Short-term rates down, long-term rates higher

5:37 Why mortgage rates could stay elevated

8:38 Whalen’s outlook for gold and silver

11:03 What credit default swaps reveal about U.S. debt

14:14 Why U.S. credit risk can lead gold

16:06 How the dollar’s global role is changing

18:21 Why countries still need U.S. Treasuries

20:30 Diversifying into foreign currencies

23:13 Will America inflate away its debt?

26:05 Why the fiscal problem keeps getting pushed forward

27:31 A potential housing reset in 2028

30:04 Tech valuations and the AI bubble

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