UGO12: Why the Next Financial Crisis Could Change America Forever ft. Danielle DiMartino Booth
Top Traders UnpluggedShow Notes
As Kevin Warsh prepares to take the reins at the Federal Reserve, a deeper question emerges: has the Fed reached the limits of what monetary policy can achieve? Cem Karsan sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth to explore the growing tensions between inflation, debt, financialization, and political pressure. From the future of quantitative easing and Treasury market risks to the rise of populism and the long term consequences of decades of intervention, this conversation examines whether the United States is approaching a turning point that could redefine the relationship between markets, government, and the Federal Reserve. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Danielle on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and why Kevin Warsh's arrival at the Fed matters 02:25 - Warsh steps into a divided Federal Reserve 05:13 - The debt problem and the pressures facing policymakers 07:52 - Can Warsh avoid another era of quantitative easing? 10:00 - Interest rates, inflation, and the limits of Fed policy 17:53 - Revisiting Arthur Burns and the lessons of the 1970s 23:02 - Treasury buybacks, debt monetization, and market stability 29:27 - Populism, demographics, and the future inflation outlook 37:34 - Is the Fed’s mandate shifting toward managing government debt? 43:06 - Sovereign wealth funds and the possibility of equity market intervention 45:56 - Would merging Treasury and the Fed end central bank independence? 49:59 - Has the Federal Reserve broken the natural business cycle? 51:22 - Final thoughts on crisis, reform, and America’s economic future Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
More from Top Traders Unplugged
Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are less threatening than many investors assume, and how labor scarcity, rising wages and corporate reform are reshaping the economy from within. They discuss the return of domestic capital, Bank of Japan normalization and the government’s push into semiconductors, defense and energy. Jesper also makes the case that Japan’s broad economic expansion, industrial strength and accelerating corporate consolidation could make it unusually resilient in a world increasingly dominated by the AI cycle. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----
Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----
How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----
In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to discuss his new book, THE MADNESS OF MARKETS, WHY SMART INVESTORS MAKE CRAZY DECISIONS AND HOW TO EXPLOIT THEM. Alex explains why “mood matters” for markets and the surprising relationship of football results and music playlists to market movements. We discuss why individual investors sometimes have an advantage over professionals in taking advantage of psychological biases and go through practical ways this can be implemented. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----