10 Predictions for Geopolitics in 2023

In Episode 82, Frank provides his grade score on the recent Canada Investment Summit hosted by Prime Minister Carney with two thumbs up for a job well done. He addresses the standoff on tariff negotiations between Canada and the US and figures the two sides are closer than one would otherwise think based on rhetoric.  He suggests that negotiations between Mexico and the US will be much less contentious believes that concerns raised by other countries who signed deals before the Supreme Court IEEPA ruling like Argentina will be one-offs.  Frank reflects on 9-11 and former Prime Minister Chretien's speech at the Gander, NL Memorial, which some pundits hail as one of the greatest speeches by a Canadian leader in history.  He also covers the latest developments ahead of mid-terms in the US, the election in Quebec and the referendum on a separation referendum in Alberta.

With the ink not yet dry on the Canada-US trade agreement, Frank attempts to separate signal from noise in analyzing winners and losers in bi-lateral trade negotiations between the two countries. With an all-out trade war, the worst possible outcome and zero tariffs unrealistic, Prime Minister Carney and his small negotiating team have worked tirelessly to ensure every constituency in Canada suffers a little bit of pain but none of them feel like they were hung out to dry to get a deal done. That said, the devil remains in the detail on topics such as digital alignment, whatever that means when the final agreement is published. Frank sounds the alarm bell for business leaders, many of whom will be in Toronto in September for Prime Minister Carney's Canada Investing Summit, about the back up in long-term interest rates and wonders why this topic is not getting more airtime. He finishes with a quick summary on the wars in Iran and Ukraine and strikes a slightly bullish tone on the Blue Jays.

In Episode 80, Frank jumps right into the tariff fray with a review of the recent 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports, suggesting that the maneuver is in part designed to eliminate any Canadian leverage in advance of CUSMA negotiations. He urges calm from Canadian leaders and no rhetoric. Frank disagrees with the decision by Carney's government to provide concessions to the US to get the Windsor-to-Detroit Gordie Howe Bridge opened as it might provide leverage to Republicans running for office in Michigan and directly impact control of the Senate and future relations between the two countries. However, he understands that the Canadian Government needed to consider the bigger picture relationship and upcoming negotiations in weighing the pros and cons of giving in to US demands. He admits to being stunned by the recent flattering coverage of Mark Carney in the Wall Street Journal. The Rupert Murdoch owned Journal's two-part detailed analysis of Carney's role in dictating the rest of the world's approach to the US likely left the US Administration seething and leads Frank to conclude that the Wall Street Journal supports Republicans, not Trump. Frank finishes up with thoughts on the US quagmire in Iran, suggesting one of two outcomes is now possible: a deal that does not result in US objectives or an expansion of hostilities that will result in loss of more US soldiers.

In Episode 79, Frank welcomes back his friend and colleague Chris Krueger, Head of Global Macro Research for TD Securities and an expert on Washington politics, to discuss the upcoming US Midterm elections in November. Before digging in on US politics, Frank and Chris work through some recent developments around the globe including the Iran Peace Deal, the Trump-Meloni dispute and Keir Starmer's resignation as Prime Minister of the UK. When the conversation switches to mid-terms, Chris educates our listeners on the math to control the House and Senate and suggests that the next leader of the Democratic Party is likely to emerge from state legislatures rather than chambers of government in Washington. Frank handicaps the Rubio-Vance sweepstakes for next Republican leader and believes that other horses will participate in the leadership race as well. The two finish up discussing the dispute over the opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge, IEEPA refunds and expectations for CUSMA negotiations.

Frank and Peter found heaven in the May episode of Geopolitics with the marriage of a live audience for Episode 78 before a Jays game at the Rogers Center and a special guest appearance in the second half of this podcast by former Toronto Blue Jays President Paul Beeston to talk baseball. Frank covers a wide range of topics in the first 30 minutes including his view on the wars in Iran and Ukraine as well as Canadian hot button topics such as the upcoming CUSMA negotiations and the upcoming separation vote in Alberta. He also takes a moment to remember the life of his friend Robert Irving from Moncton who passed away recently. The conversation shifts to baseball where two kids in a candy store named McKenna and Haynes lined up to ask Beeston everything he knows about baseball including his view on the Jays in 2026 as well as the pending labor negotiations between players and owners. Beeston offers his thoughts on the electronic review of everything in baseball, an outcome he would not support and finishes with some thoughts on 50 years with the Toronto Blue Jays organization.