Monte Carlo #72: Rob Newbold - The Industry Should Be Ready for a $170B+ Cat Year
The Reinsurance PodcastShow Notes
Sub-$50bn of first-half cat losses, no hurricanes last year, none so far this year, and rates heading south. Verisk's Rob Newbold boards the TRP yacht at Monte Carlo RVS to explain why reinsurance should still be braced for $171bn of insured catastrophe loss in an average year. Then he gets into what AI is actually doing to cat modelling, from globally correlated models to agents that talk to each other so humans can get on with deciding.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN: Why Verisk puts modelled global insured cat loss at $171bn a year, and why a light first half doesn't change the maths How to separate the market cycle from the risk itself, with the 1-in-100 now close to $500bn Where AI is changing cat modelling for real: a physically correlated global model, plus agents handling the button-pressing so people can make the calls Why data centre exposure deserves a look before it surprises you What Rob thinks will finally tip reinsurance into using AI properly
TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro00:28 A $171bn average loss in a sub-$50bn year01:48 Why cat models don't care where you sit in the cycle02:46 AI in cat modelling and the first globally correlated model03:52 Agents calling agents, humans making the decisions04:46 Token bills, data centres and the hyperscaler question06:18 New perils, faster models and what clients actually want08:00 Meeting clients where they are, and what forces the flip09:02 Final word: the cycle doesn't set the risk
EPISODE LINKS:Rob's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-newbold-080380/ Verisk: https://www.verisk.com/solutions/catastrophe-risk-solutions/
CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss
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