Show Notes
In the face of potential major cuts to foreign aid, how can we anticipate the impact on global health and effectively direct resources to the areas of greatest need?
In this episode, GiveWell’s CEO and co-founder, Elie Hassenfeld, speaks with Principal Researcher Alex Cohen to discuss the forecasting work GiveWell has undertaken to better understand what the future of global health funding might look like. They explore the potential size of the funding gaps, which programs might be affected, and how GiveWell is preparing to respond in a new era for global health philanthropy.
Elie and Alex discuss: The scale of potential aid cuts: Informed by insights from professional forecasters, policy experts, and other partners, GiveWell anticipates a potential 50% cut in US global health funding and a 35% reduction in overall global health funding, creating a funding gap of approximately $20 billion annually. These estimates are highly uncertain, but they provide a directional view of what the funding landscape could look like. The impact on the most cost-effective programs: While some prioritization is expected to protect cost-effective programs, we estimate around $1.5 billion in cuts to programs that are 20x our benchmark or greater—in addition to another $1.5 billion in cuts to programs that are 10x to 20x our benchmark. This includes programs like malaria prevention, HIV treatment, and childhood vaccinations. How GiveWell is preparing to respond: In response to these potential gaps, GiveWell is working to increase its research capacity to investigate new funding areas like HIV/AIDS, which have historically been well-funded. We’re also engaging with supporters to highlight the exceptional impact additional funding could have.
While forecasting provides a valuable framework for planning, these estimates are highly uncertain, and the situation remains fluid. GiveWell is monitoring the funding landscape through regular check-ins with partners and experts, as we recognize that the impacts of the coming cuts will likely emerge gradually rather than all at once. Whatever the exact outcome, the scale of cuts we're forecasting will likely create significant new funding needs, and we will do all we can to find and fund them.
Visit our USAID Funding Cuts webpage to learn more about our response and how you can help, and listen or subscribe to our podcast for the latest updates. This episode was recorded on June 11, 2025 and represents our best understanding at that time.
More from GiveWell Conversations
In an effort to direct substantially more funding to the most cost-effective opportunities we can find to help people, GiveWell’s research is expanding in two directions at once: going broader, to cover more areas of global health and development, and going deeper, to improve the inputs that inform our decision-making.
GiveWell works to continually improve our research so we can make better grant decisions and direct donations where we believe they can do the most good. GiveWell’s Cross-Cutting research subteam is an important part of that effort—it investigates the impact of the programs we fund, works to resolve our largest uncertainties, and aims to improve our research. As GiveWell’s grantmaking grows, the Cross-Cutting subteam is strengthening our data collection and analysis to support that growth. In this episode, GiveWell co-founder and CEO Elie Hassenfeld speaks with Program Director Alex Cohen, who leads the Cross-Cutting subteam, about how better data can improve our decision-making, our work to gather stronger evidence, and the ways we’ve tested AI as a tool to increase our research capacity and quality.
GiveWell, with co-funding from Coefficient Giving, recently made our largest grant to date: $276 million to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) to support the procurement and distribution of 92 million nets in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 2027 through 2029. We estimate that the nets, 46 million of which we think would not otherwise be distributed, will avert roughly 67,000 deaths. We have supported AMF’s work for more than 15 years, and the insecticide-treated nets it procures and distributes remain one of the most cost-effective ways we've found to save lives.
When GiveWell investigates a new cause area, we’re often focused on two priorities: directing funding where we think it can help people most and generating evidence to inform larger investments later. Family planning is a clear example. Recent foreign aid cuts—including reductions from the US, UK, and Dutch governments—deepened an already substantial need and opened up new cost-effective funding opportunities.
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