
📉🤔 Will the Market Get Worse Before It Gets Better? - December Toronto Area Real Estate Market Live Update & Q/A
Move Smartly: The PodcastShow Notes
John Pasalis presents his latest data and top stories on Toronto area real estate in conversation with fellow Realosophy agents Gus Papaioannou and Davin McMahon and our Move Smartly mortgage expert, David Larock - and you, our viewers, who join the discussion in our live chat!! This week on our live show, John and the team break down what could be coming in 2026 - including the possibility of interest rates rising again. So the big question is: Will higher rates finally push those buyers who've been sitting on the sidelines to make a move? We're already seeing early signs that some are starting to jump back in before affordability shifts again. Dave Larock, our mortgage expert, provides a breakdown of November's big job gain and why that headline might be more hype than reality. Dave believes rates will hold steady in the short term, but he's predicting rate cuts coming in 2026. Set-up a meeting with John Pasalis and his agents at Realosophy to discuss your own real estate questions privately: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn Sign up for our email list to be alerted to the next online market update to join our YouTube session live chat and ask your own Qs: https://www.movesmartly.com/monthly-public-webinar Today's show links: John's latest articles on the Toronto area real estate market are on realosophy.com https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/author/john-pasalis Dave Larock's latest weekly blog post on mortgage rates on MoveSmartly.com: https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/author/david-larock Contact Us: John Pasalis, President and Broker, Realosophy Realty, Toronto | Email: [email protected] | X-Twitter: @JohnPasalis David Larock, Mortgage Broker and Analyst and Realtor | Email: [email protected] | X-Twitter: @Dave_at_IMP About This Show: The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada. You can also watch this and every episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please subscribe and leave us a positive rating on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from — thank you!!
More from Move Smartly: The Podcast
In this month's live, we took a closer look at the latest GTA housing market stats and trends, along with our new First-Time Homebuyer Report, exploring where buyers can find homes under $1M in great school districts and how MoveSmartly.com can help make that search easier. We also caught up with Davin and Gus from our team to hear what they're seeing on the ground this fall, what buyers and sellers should keep in mind, and why multiple offers don't always mean paying well over asking. Mortgage expert David Larock joined us to break down the latest U.S. inflation numbers and what they could mean for the Bank of Canada and mortgage rates here at home. Set-up a meeting with John Pasalis and his agents at Move Smartly to discuss your own real estate questions privately: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn Read our full report on the top GTA neighbourhoods for first-time buyers looking for great schools and homes under $1M: https://insights.movesmartly.com/first-time-buyer-neighbourhoods-great-schools
Steve Saretsky and David Larock join this month's roundtable on the housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver. The fall market stalled in September, and the panel explains why a big rebound looks unlikely before year end. Rates are also moving the wrong way for buyers. Even with the Bank of Canada on hold, fixed mortgage rates are rising. David explains what's driving that and what it means for borrowers. Finally, will Canada let foreign buyers back in? With the federal ban set to expire, Ottawa is considering allowing foreigners to buy new homes. The panel debates whether that would help clear unsold condos or bring back the speculation that created the glut.
For more than a decade, Canadians borrowed on the assumption that interest rates would always come back down. BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic says that assumption no longer holds. In this episode, Robert explains why BMO believes the era of low real interest rates is officially over. He sees it as a long-term shift, not a temporary spike that the next rate-cutting cycle will undo. We discuss what that means for housing, especially in the GTA. Robert sees the market splitting in two. Larger ground-oriented homes are firming, while the small condo market remains saturated and investors have largely walked away. He says he can see house prices levelling off while condo prices continue to trend down. We close with the AI-driven stock market boom, which Robert places in the "seventh inning stretch" of a classic asset bubble, and what happens when it ends. Robert Kavcic is Director and Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets. His research is available at economics.bmo.com.
Every month, John Pasalis and Davin McMahon take real situations from real people and work through them on air. This month, four of them come back to the same question from different directions: what do you do when you think prices haven't finished falling? A buyer who has been waiting since last year wants to know what a bottom actually looks like in the data, before it's obvious to everyone. A couple in Etobicoke has been on the market since May, cut their price twice, and can't get an offer. A pair of empty nesters with no mortgage are wondering whether to sell, rent for a few years, and buy back in. And a small landlord is $900 a month out of pocket on a condo with a tenant who isn't going anywhere. Then a fifth situation, which is about what a slow market does to the people selling houses rather than the houses themselves. Two first-time buyers with a hard $800,000 ceiling keep getting shown listings $75,000 to $100,000 above it, on the theory that those sellers are desperate.
Two people knocked on Mr. Bouchard's door. He didn't invite them. They got him to sign documents he says he didn't understand, and left without giving him copies. Then they registered a charge against his house for $30,999.85. Money started leaving his bank account every month. Years later, a notice of sale arrived. To keep his home, he was told to pay $80,711.29. That's a real case, decided this year by the Ontario Superior Court. And according to my guest, it's one of dozens involving the same companies, the same people, and in some cases the same lawyers. David Sterns is a partner at Sotos Class Actions. He's acting without fee, alongside lawyers from the Advocacy Centre for the Elderly, in a case that alleges a pattern of fraudulent and unconscionable mortgages registered against the homes of older Ontarians. We go through how it works, step by step. Who knocks first, who comes back promising to fix it, where the money actually goes, and how a charge ends up on title without the owner knowing. If you own your home, the last part of this conversation is the practical one. What to look for, how to check what's registered against your property, and who to call if you find something you can't explain.