Shopify's Agentic Commerce Playbook: VP of Product Mani Fazeli on 8X Agentic Traffic Growth and the Long-Tail Boom
Retailgentic | Consumer Behavior & Retail TrendShow Notes
This epsiode is a platform-and-stats deep dive: Scot gets Mani to pin down what agentic commerce actually is (with a four-stage framework that’s the cleanest map we’ve heard), then pulls out a run of genuinely wild numbers on what Shopify is seeing across millions of merchants, before going deep on the catalog, the protocol soup, and everything that shipped in the Spring ‘26 Edition.
Highlights: Crawl, walk, run, fly: The framework of the episode. Crawl is AI-driven discovery (the biggest, most impactful stage today); fly is fully discretionary, budget-based buying. Mani’s verdict on where the industry actually is: “somewhere between walk and run today.” 8X traffic, 13X orders: Shopify’s Q1 numbers… AI-driven traffic to merchants up 8X year over year, and orders through those channels up 13X. AI buyers just hit harder: New buyers who discover a merchant through AI order at roughly twice the rate of organic search, are about 50% more likely to convert, and spend about 14% more per order because they show up deeper in the consideration funnel. 70% of AI orders are long tail: About 70–71% of AI-attributed orders last year fell outside the top 100 product categories. Models “don’t need to learn how to reach for the small merchant, they just need to learn the intent of the buyer.” 2X on fresh data: The Shopify catalog, over a billion products across millions of merchants, converts about 2X better than stale or scraped data, thanks to real-time pricing and availability straight from the merchant. A “7 out of 10 at everything”: On how AI is reshaping product, design, and engineering roles. The non-merchant-of-record era: Don’t become the marketplace reselling goods, just be the interface to the merchant. The merchant keeps the customer relationship and runs their own checkout. UCP was a “labor of love”: Shopify was at the genesis of the Universal Commerce Protocol. Sidekick, Pulse & Autopilot: Sidekick usage is up about 4X year over year; Pulse turns Shopify’s data into proactive recommendations right on your admin homepage; and the guiding principle stays “always put the control in the merchant’s hand.” B2B may reach “fly” first: By 2030, Mani splits the world into DTC and wholesale/B2B and bets B2B, where both sides transact professionally and obsess over efficiency, may hit full automation before consumers do. Mani’s four stages are the cleanest map of agentic commerce we’ve heard, and the numbers behind them are frankly staggering. And as he reminds us, we’re still in the early innings. Enjoy the conversation! Timestamps: 03:55 Welcome; watching Shopify's rise from ChannelAdvisor 04:38 Mani's path to VP of Product at Shopify 06:37 The Wish / ContextLogic founding story 08:18 Vibe coding and "AI makes everyone a 7 out of 10" 11:10 What Mani owns across the commerce loop 12:42 Non-merchant-of-record channels (ChatGPT, Gemini) 13:45 Defining agentic commerce 14:44 The crawl / walk / run / fly framework 17:50 The stats: 8X traffic, 13X orders, +50% conversion, +14% AOV 20:03 Out-of-the-box UCP compatibility and agentic storefronts 23:10 The Shopify catalog superpower (2x conversion) 26:40 WebMCP and the protocol stack (AP2, x402, Web Bot Auth) 29:15 UCP: Shopify's labor of love 32:24 Top things merchants should do to win 35:28 The escalation "escape hatch" 37:24 Word of mouth and the long tail, 70% of AI orders 42:41 Spring '26 Edition: Shop app, Ship & Pick Up, Pulse, Autopilot 48:10 Where it all goes by 2030: B2B vs DTC 52:29 Wrap-up
👉 Connect with Mani Fazeli: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mcfazeli/ 👉 Learn more about Shopify: https://www.shopify.com/ 👉 And check out the Shopify newsroom blog here 🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along: 📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/@Retailgentic
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This week is a product deep dive with a fresh funding story attached. eComID just closed Europe’s largest fashion tech seed round, and the company is building something agentic commerce needs: shopper context that belongs to the shopper and goes wherever they shop. The ID was born inside H&M, it already runs on about 70 brand sites, and it’s now headed for the US. Highlights 𝗧𝗵𝗲 $𝟭𝟳.𝟰𝗠 𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱: Europe's largest fashion tech seed round. Oscar says it's the second-biggest in the world, led by London's Systemiq Capital, and Nordic sports retailer Stadium (one of eComID's biggest customers) joined as a strategic investor. Scot rang the gong 🔔 𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗛&𝗠: Oscar pitched eComID internally in a Dragon's Den–style process and H&M's startup arm invested from day one. 𝗔 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿: Models are very capable, catalogs are open to agents and payments are getting solved. But without shopper context, AI "still starts from zero." It doesn't know your size, your taste or what you sent back. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁: One source of truth for your size, taste and preferences, tied to your email. It goes with you across eComID brands like H&M, Björn Borg, Peak Performance and Haglöfs. "We want to democratize personalization." 𝟵𝟭% 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝘇𝗲𝘀: 91% of shoppers buy different sizes from different brands. Oscar says that shows how broken sizing is. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: About 70 merchants, about 20 million shoppers reached each month, and 15% of users already in the US. Shoppers who use eComID have about 30% lower return rates and about 10% higher conversion. +𝟮𝟲% 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿: In a head-to-head test, eComID's AI search beat traditional on-site search by 26% on revenue per visitor. 𝗞𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲: "Average order value is a completely useless metric." What matters is average kept order value, because each handled return costs brands $21–46. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁: If an agent spends $1,000 for you, you need to know whose agent it is, what you authorized, what context it used and what happens if something goes wrong. Oscar argues Europe's GDPR-first approach suits agentic commerce. 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲: 92% of shoppers want to see their own return rate, and 75% say seeing it makes them want to return less. The live demo on Houdini Sportswear shows the search, sizing and nudge modules working together. Timestamps: 00:35 Welcome to Retailgentic 01:50 Announcement: Kiri Masters launches Adgentic 05:00 Welcome Oscar Rundqvist, CEO & founder of eComID 05:25 Big news: $17.4M, Europe's largest fashion tech seed round 06:15 Oscar's background at H&M 07:35 Lessons from H&M: why personalization never worked 08:55 Pitching eComID inside H&M's startup studio 09:40 Why we need eComID: AI without context starts from zero 10:55 The shopping passport: portable shopper context 13:20 Building the consumer side through brand modules 14:45 How the ID works across brands 16:30 Shopper control and a visible shopping algorithm 18:05 Beyond sizing: capturing taste and intent 20:35 The merchant suite: search, sizing, personalization, agents 23:00 Modular by design 23:50 Traction: 70 merchants, 20M shoppers, -30% returns 24:50 Why average order value is a useless metric 25:35 Use of proceeds and coming to the US 26:30 The fundraising journey and cap table 28:50 Fashion, shoes and future categories 30:15 Why AI can crack sizing when others couldn't 32:50 Product-led growth: no marketing, no sales 33:35 Agentic commerce adoption in Europe 37:15 AI platforms vs. brand sites and product context 38:55 Live demo: eComID on Houdini Sportswear 42:30 Wrap-up and how to reach Oscar 👉 Connect with Oscar: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oscarrundqvist/ 👉 Learn more about eComID: https://www.ecomid.com/ 🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along: 📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/@Retailgentic
Retailgentic listeners: this week we're sharing an episode of AdGentic, our sister show in the ReFiBuy Media Network. Retailgentic covers how AI agents are changing shopping. AdGentic covers what happens to advertising when your agent does the shopping. If you like this one, subscribe to AdGentic for more. Personal AI agents feel magical right now, and part of the magic is what's missing: ads. Kiri Masters walks through how Google, Facebook, WhatsApp and Amazon all started clean and ended up ad-funded, why AI is following the same script, and why that might not be the worst outcome. The real question isn't whether ads come to your agent. It's how bad they'll be. In this episode: → The broken no-ads promises of Google, Facebook and WhatsApp → Ensh*ttification, and why ads are still the least-worst way to pay for consumer tech → Subscriptions vs fees vs ads, and why fees quietly turn into ads → What Meta's Muse, OpenAI's Dots and Instinct have said about making money → The ad formats starting to appear in AI, and the ones agents might borrow Chapters 00:25 Welcome to AdGentic 00:50 The magic of an ad-free agent 01:55 Every platform starts like this: Google 02:30 Facebook and the scarf 03:05 WhatsApp's "No Ads!" note 03:25 Amazon: the store became the content 04:00 Ensh*ttification 04:40 Why I'm an advertising maximalist 05:05 Three ways to pay for an app 06:20 How Muse, Dots and Instinct plan to make money 07:05 The problem with subscriptions 07:30 Why fees turn into ads 08:25 How bad will it be? 09:15 AI ad formats so far 09:55 Formats agents could borrow 10:25 Off-site: ads without ads 11:20 Kiri's wish list for Ad Santa 11:50 The dark scenario 12:30 Ads are the least worst Subscribe to AdGentic Substack: https://www.adgentic.ai/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/adgentic-podcast Podcast: https://adgentic.transistor.fm/ 🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along: 📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/@Retailgentic
This episode was recorded live at the RetailClub AI Festival in Huntington Beach (Sept 22–24), where Jason Goldberg and I set up shop to record with retail and e-commerce leaders between sessions. You’ll hear a few nods to the festival in the conversation, and if there’s a little extra crunch in the audio, blame the snacks. We start with a quick tour of every CPG brand Justin has worked for, and the very scientific method he uses to pick the next one. From there it turns into a crash course in how challenger brands actually grow: the brutal economics of the physical shelf, why big brand houses are reshuffling their portfolios, and what it really takes to get into Costco and stay there.
We pick up where we left off a year ago and get into what has changed since. Ekta walks us through how e.l.f. is structuring its AI work, what kind of person they’re hiring to do it, and how a public company makes the case for investing before the ROI is fully provable. The live audience jumps in with some sharp questions along the way. We close by looking ahead to what Ekta thinks brands need to get ready for in the next 12 months. Hit play.
This week is a research deep dive. ReFiBuy commissioned a behavioral study of how real people shop inside ChatGPT and Google's AI Mode, and Scot sat down with the researcher who ran it to walk through what was found. The full study is published today This is the conversation behind the numbers. Highlights: 𝟴𝟰% 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗮 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱: About 84% of product choices in the study came from a product card. That's 83.7%, and Scot rounds it up "if you allow." 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝘄𝗼: The first card wins by a wide margin, with roughly 43% of picks. But card three outperformed card two in both ChatGPT and AI Mode. Eric's take is that "it's not really a ranking." Scot's guess is curiosity, because card three is only partly visible in the carousel. 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗵𝘀: About 75% of shoppers skipped the AI's written answer and went straight to the product cards. They'd come back to the text later, but only as a second step. 𝟵𝟴% 𝗼𝗳 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀: Purchase-intent prompts like "I want to buy X today" brought up product cards almost every time. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗶𝗻𝘀: When shoppers had to click out to a retailer, they leaned even harder toward the first offer than toward the first product card. The likeliest path is first card, first offer. 𝗔𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲: About 6 in 10 free-plan users saw ads or sponsored content on a task. 71% rated them at least as useful as Google search ads, and about 35% said an ad influenced what they considered buying. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗼𝘅: Reviews were the main reason for a pick only 2% of the time. Afterward, about 75% said reviews mattered. Scot's explanation is that nobody reads them, but everyone takes the 4.8 over the 3.2. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁, 𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗹 𝗶𝘁 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝘀: Eric says the biggest surprise after two years of these studies is "the extent to which people trust, even when they say they don't." A mismatched price or a wrong spec breaks that trust quickly. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗸𝗲𝘆𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗷𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗲𝗿𝗮: Scot compares 20 years of chasing "men's running shoe" on Google with a world where shoppers let the AI choose for them. 𝟰𝟬 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲, 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸: The study had 40 remote participants doing 30-minute think-aloud sessions on screen recordings. The team logged small behaviors down to seconds spent and scroll percentages. Scot came out of the Amazon era believing the buy box was everything, and this study tells him ChatGPT has one too. Enjoy the conversation. Timestamps: 01:57 Meet Eric Van Buskirk, Clickstream Solutions 02:15 Why ReFiBuy commissioned this study 02:48 Eric's background: SEMrush, Backlinko, Kevin Indig 04:05 Stated preference vs. observed behavior 06:05 How a behavioral study works 08:30 Why 40 people is enough 10:20 Who took part, and who got cut 11:55 The Amazon buy box and agentic commerce optimization 14:25 Finding #1: Pictures beat paragraphs 16:40 Card position: #1 wins, #3 beats #2 18:55 84% of choices come from a product card 20:35 Google SEO vs. AI: the "keyword jail" era 23:40 When do shoppers click out? 25:30 75% skip the text and go straight to the cards 27:25 Offer cards: the first offer dominates 30:20 Ads in ChatGPT: what shoppers really think 35:50 Trust and the reviews paradox 40:25 When bad data breaks trust 41:35 Where to get the study and work with Eric 44:55 Wrap-up 👉 Connect with Eric: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vanbuskirk/ 👉 Learn more about Clickstream Solutions: https://clickstream.cc/ 🧠 Want to stay ahead in AI commerce? Subscribe and follow along: 📰 Subscribe to the free Substack: retailgentic.ai 📺 Watch episodes on YouTube & Subscribe for updates: https://www.youtube.com/@Retailgentic