Empirical Cycling Podcast

Watts Doc #63: Confronting Uncertainty In Training And Data

Empirical Cycling Podcast

Show Notes

We reveal our process for dealing with the uncertainty inherent in training and racing by keeping the FO in the scientific method of FAFO. After addressing whether or not probabilities are even real and the role of subjective experience, we look at some examples of uncertainty and predictions in testing, training, and racing, how reliable and accurate that data and performance models may be, and the process of improving our confidence in their ability to guide a training program. We also discuss incorporating peer-reviewed literature as well as anecdata, and the ultimate value of coaching or self-coaching experience.

More from Empirical Cycling Podcast

Oct 11, 2026

This episode details our approach in coaching high quality training that isn't based on traditional intervals and power targets. We go over advantages and disadvantages of both approaches, and discuss how cyclists who don't enjoy intervals can still make progress. We advocate for a middle ground of "semi-structured" training, and different ways to take this approach in workouts as well as periodization. Plus your listener questions.

Sep 28, 2026

After discussing testing and getting descriptive with power profiling, we weigh the merits of several things power profiles are typically used for like training needs, fractional utilization and underestimated FTPs, race selection and scenarios, potential for training response. We also answer your listener questions on nature vs nurture, normalized power, and much more.

Sep 17, 2026

We take a very deep dive into the world of lactate. Starting out with "metabolic logic" to illustrate how and why lactate gets formed during exercise, we then get into the idea of "glycolytic strength" as well as the lactate shuttle hypothesis. Then we tackle lactate testing, with a critical eye on first threshold (LT1), lactate concentrations and various threshold definitions, as well as sources of variability that affect how valid test results may be. We end with your listener questions, including lactate gels.

Aug 26, 2026

This episode goes into our approach to periodization and training around holidays with and without bike access, injury and illness, extreme heat and cold, including how to adjust mid training block. Plus your listener questions on exam stress, weight loss, and more.

Aug 19, 2026

We discuss our process for learning from a season and applying it to the next one. Goals, roadblocks, recovery, availability, progressive overload, health, and more. We also answer your listener questions about what we're looking for in all that data, spotting limiters, race specificity, planning around holidays, and more.

See all episodes →