Show Notes
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com
Bitcoin is both volatile and cyclical. You get periods of extraordinary gains. But then you get periods of extraordinary losses. But … If you can buy during low points in the cycle, that volatility can work in your favour. And the house view is that we are within a month or two of the low point right here and now. It might be that the very low was on July 1st at $58,000. It might be that we need to give that price one more retest this autumn. Either way you want to be sure that by November-December, if you haven’t already, you have your long position in place, ready for the next run. There is nothing worse than watching others enjoy a bitcoin bull market while you’re on the sidelines. I have made many mistakes over the years, but I do get some things right, and last time around, in August 23, I wrote up Microstrategy, now Strategy (NDX.MSTR) close to the lows, and some readers made twenty times their money. It made me very popular. I am planning a similar coup this time. Today, I want to explain the bitcoin cycle, where I think we are in it and how I would get exposure. If you are one of those people who didn’t buy Bitcoin at $500 or $1,000 and have spent the years since telling people how you could have bought it, but missed out, now is your chance to move on from that story. And if you are one of those people who says, “I don’t understand it,” and uses that as a reason not to invest, I’m going to address that too. For the avoidance of doubt, I have some history here. In 2014 I wrote what was, as far as I am aware, the first book about bitcoin published by a mainstream publisher. I have been following this thing for a long time. “Read it and glimpse into the future,” said Sir Richard Branson. Though it’s not clear he did actually read it. Bitcoin: the Future of Money? by Dominic Frisby is available at all good bookshops. The audiobook, which had particularly good reviews, has now been re-released. UK version here. US version here.
I have a target of $200,000 for the next cycle, perhaps 2.5x where we are today. (Bitcoin currently sits around $78,000 But I am going to show you a simple way to play this where the returns could be much, much greater than 2.5x. So let’s get into it. The four stages of the Bitcoin cycle The bitcoin cycle goes something like this * Quiet accumulation. * Rampant bull market and blow-off top. * Monster correction. * Frustrating consolidation. Then the process starts again. This cycle is remarkably consistent and quite easy to identify. I think we are currently somewhere between stages 4 and 1, and that is when you want to be getting positioned. The high came at $128,000 a year ago. Bitcoin was on the front cover of every paper. The US was going to adopt a bitcoin standard and fiat money was on its way out. Something like that. It duly crashed. Now it’s going to be destroyed by Quantum computing or something. All the talent has left bitcoin for AI. Nobody is talking about it any more. And now, with the Coldcard disaster followed by the Blockstream hack, we have had the requisite failures in major players which mark bear market lows. The great difficulty with bear markets is psychological. It is easy to buy when it is going up. You get sucked in. It is much harder to buy when everyone is telling you it is finished. Another simple, but eerily accurate way of playing the bitcoin cycle is the 500-day rule. Buy 500 days before the halving and sell 500 days after it. A bitcoin halving is when the rewards paid to miners reduces. This happens every four years, and the next one is due around April 2028. We are perhaps 580 days before the next halving. (One thing I have noticed is that when everyone knows about a cycle, they tend to come earlier, hence my alerting you to this one now and not in 80 days time). Again it means you want to be positioned before December.
More from The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more
Something a little different this week. On Monday I gave a talk for UK Finance called Making Sense of It All, about the multiple contradictions at work int he economy: rising bond yields yet equity markets grinding higher, huge investment in AI despite limited profit, and the growing squeeze on the materials needed to build AI infrastructure. (Many thanks to Duncan and Rhiannon for inviting me to speak). I’ve taken the deck and put together an online version - the first time I’ve ever attempted such a thing - I hope you will find it useful. The transcript is available above. Until next time, Dominic If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
After an extraordinary run which started in 2022 below US$20/oz and ended in January this year at US$122, silver has been working its way downwards. We have had a correction of almost 50%. Today we’re at $58/oz having been as low as $55 in July. We are almost certainly going to go back and retest that low, I would say, and silver is very much in a downtrend. $50 has been a huge line in the sand that goes all the way back to 1980 and for decades silver could not get above that number. Then, late last year, it cut through it like butter. What was resistance becomes support is one of the technical analysts’ guiding mantras, and there is every chance $50 will do just that. However, if there is one thing I have learnt about silver over the years it is that has an unrivalled propensity to let you down, which is I suppose my way of saying it could quite easily go a lot lower. It’s silver after all. However, the fundamentals favour silver. The market remains in deficit. The Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey forecasts a 46.3 million ounce deficit in 2026, which would be the sixth consecutive annual deficit. Never mind jewellery and investment demand, silver finds an enormous amount of industrial demand (~60% of annual demand), especially in electronics, because it is such a good conductor of electricity. The sudden increase from solar panel demand a few years back is thought to have triggered the recent run, although manufacturers are reducing the amount of silver used in each panel. Bear markets are a time to build. As an investor, you research the companies you might want to buy - there is no need necessarily to rush out and buy them - start building positions when nobody else wants them, make the purchases on your own terms. There is no need to rush. With that in mind, I am going to tell you about my largest silver position today. I even have an interview with the boss. It was a big winner for readers in the last cycle going from below 30c north of C$3, rising more than 1,000%. With the falls in the silver price it has now come back more than 50%, and I think it is worth taking a look. Its CEO is both young and competent and he is growing the company in an admirable way so that in 3 to 5 years time you are going to see something much bigger.
It’s my pleasure to sit down with with the man who “gold pilled” me back in the day with his book, The Collapse of the Dollar. James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, has spent five decades working in banking, finance and investments, making the case that gold is not an investment or another commodity, but money in its purest form. We discuss why he believes the US can no longer repeat the Volcker rescue of the 1980s, the relationship between sound money and liberty, and why he expects gold eventually to return to the centre of global commerce as technology changes the way money moves. James’ latest book is Money and Liberty and you can find his IEA paper here. This interview was brought to you by The Pure Gold Company If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
Good Sunday to you, We have a fantastic interview for you today. I sit down with legendary Canadian investor Frank Giustra to discuss gold, government debt and why he believes the world is entering the most dangerous geopolitical period of our lifetime. You can either watch the video or listen as a podcast via Spotify et al.Frank made his fortune in mining and natural resources, before founding Lionsgate Films, the world’s biggest independent film studio. His track record as a businessman and investor is superlative. We discuss why he believes this is no ordinary metals bull market, the accelerating shift by central banks from government debt into physical gold, the risk that another round of quantitative easing could trigger a dollar crisis, and whether gold may ultimately need to be revalued higher, dramaticically higher. We also touch on China, financial repression, critical minerals and why, of everything Frank owns today, gold remains the asset he is most excited about. Money Markets & More is the interview series from Dominic Frisby, exploring money, markets, gold, economics and the ideas shaping the world.🥇 The programme is brought to you by The Pure Gold Company If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com