Episode 98 — What Is a Bull Run — and How Do You Spot One?

EPISODE 98 — What Is a Bull Run — and How Do You Spot One?

Bitcoin hit $126,000 in January 2025 — its highest price in history. By early 2026 it had fallen more than 40% from that peak, and debates about whether the cycle was over or simply pausing were dominating every corner of crypto. These debates happen at the end of every bull market, and the same costly mistakes are made by the same types of investors every single time: buying in excitement at market peaks, selling in panic at lows, and missing the recoveries that follow. Understanding the market cycle — what drives it, how to read where you are in it, and how to stay disciplined through it — is more valuable than any specific price prediction.

In this episode of Crypto for Beginners, we explain the crypto market cycle from first principles. We cover the four phases in full detail: accumulation — when prices are low, sentiment deeply negative, and patient capital enters quietly; early markup — when prices rise and the narrative slowly shifts from despair to cautious optimism; late bull market euphoria — when everyone seems to be making money and risk management disappears from conversations; and the bear market — when prices fall further and longer than almost anyone expects, resetting conditions for the next cycle.

We explain what each phase looks, sounds, and feels like from the inside. We cover on-chain metrics that have historically signalled cycle phases: the MVRV ratio and what it means when the average holder is sitting on large unrealised gains, SOPR and what sustained selling at a loss signals about market bottom conditions, Bitcoin dominance and altcoin season timing, and exchange flow data indicating whether holders are preparing to sell or accumulate. We explain what drives bull markets: the Bitcoin halving supply shock, institutional adoption waves, and macroeconomic liquidity conditions. We spend significant time on the most expensive mistakes beginners make at market peaks and how to recognise when you are about to make them.

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