Show Notes
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You’ve probably heard: gold has just had the worst month in its history. Given that gold is older than the earth itself, that’s quite a long history. What headline writers actually mean, even if they don’t know it, is that: in US dollar terms, gold just had its worst month since 1971, at a stretch 1789. But the US dollar is a bogus, fiat measure, and the sooner we start using constant money as our unit of account, the more truthful the world will become. Gold hasn’t changed. It doesn’t. What has swung, violently as ever, is the price of fiat. The move looks more extreme than it is because of where the month started. Gold began March near a high, around $5,400, and then sold off hard. A thousand-dollar swing sounds a lot, but after the run we’ve just had it’s not especially surprising. Indeed I would go as far as to say it’s normal. Here is a 3 year chart of gold to put the March move in some perspective. I’ve also added a very useful indicator - the 233-day exponential moving average - in red. 233 is a Fibonacci number, and with roughly 250 trading days in a year, the 233 EMA works out as roughly the one-year average, but with the added magical quality that Fibonacci numbers often seem to have. In this case, it caught the exact bottom, as you can see. What effectively has happened is that after a long run-up gold has pulled back to the one-year average and bounced off it. What we’re seeing is normal behaviour in a secular bull market. Corrections feel violent at the time. They always do. But this is what bull markets do. My view remains unchanged. We are somewhere in the middle of a multi-year move that ultimately takes gold into the $7,000 to $10,000 range. By the way, if you’re interested in learning more about gold, the latest edition of Charlie Morris’s Atlas Pulse is out now. It remains in my view the most level-headed gold letter out there. And, best of all, it’s free. Read it here.
The bigger point is not the chart, it’s the backdrop. I keep saying it, but you absolutely must own some gold in your portfolio, particularly if you are in the UK, indeed anywhere in Western Europe. We have big, big problems coming down the tracks and they are going to result in the further debasement of the national currency. Debt levels are rising, not falling. Governments are spending more, not less. The cost of servicing that debt is going up. The political incentives all point one way: more issuance, more intervention, more currency debasement. The UK is a particularly clear example. You can already see the strain in the gilt market, the pressure on public finances and the complete lack of both political will and ability to address it in any meaningful way. No party is going to fix this. The system itself is broken. There is only one way fiat money is going and it’s the same way it’s always gone. If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
Treat pullbacks like this for what they are: opportunities. If you don’t own gold, you are relying entirely on a monetary system that is under visible strain. That in itself is a bet, whether you realise it or not. Onto more positive news - or is it? Squeaky bum time in Nicaragua My largest position, and a core holding for many readers, is Metals Exploration (MTL.L). Broker Hannam has just put a 37p price target on this 13p stock, implying roughly 3x upside. The current market cap is about £400 million. The share price has pulled back sharply after its recent run to 19p to around 12–13p, largely tracking the ups and downs of gold. The company has just issued a construction update, following a recent site visit to the main project in Nicaragua, La India, attended by major shareholders inc
More from The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more
Something a little different this week. On Monday I gave a talk for UK Finance called Making Sense of It All, about the multiple contradictions at work int he economy: rising bond yields yet equity markets grinding higher, huge investment in AI despite limited profit, and the growing squeeze on the materials needed to build AI infrastructure. (Many thanks to Duncan and Rhiannon for inviting me to speak). I’ve taken the deck and put together an online version - the first time I’ve ever attempted such a thing - I hope you will find it useful. The transcript is available above. Until next time, Dominic If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
After an extraordinary run which started in 2022 below US$20/oz and ended in January this year at US$122, silver has been working its way downwards. We have had a correction of almost 50%. Today we’re at $58/oz having been as low as $55 in July. We are almost certainly going to go back and retest that low, I would say, and silver is very much in a downtrend. $50 has been a huge line in the sand that goes all the way back to 1980 and for decades silver could not get above that number. Then, late last year, it cut through it like butter. What was resistance becomes support is one of the technical analysts’ guiding mantras, and there is every chance $50 will do just that. However, if there is one thing I have learnt about silver over the years it is that has an unrivalled propensity to let you down, which is I suppose my way of saying it could quite easily go a lot lower. It’s silver after all. However, the fundamentals favour silver. The market remains in deficit. The Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey forecasts a 46.3 million ounce deficit in 2026, which would be the sixth consecutive annual deficit. Never mind jewellery and investment demand, silver finds an enormous amount of industrial demand (~60% of annual demand), especially in electronics, because it is such a good conductor of electricity. The sudden increase from solar panel demand a few years back is thought to have triggered the recent run, although manufacturers are reducing the amount of silver used in each panel. Bear markets are a time to build. As an investor, you research the companies you might want to buy - there is no need necessarily to rush out and buy them - start building positions when nobody else wants them, make the purchases on your own terms. There is no need to rush. With that in mind, I am going to tell you about my largest silver position today. I even have an interview with the boss. It was a big winner for readers in the last cycle going from below 30c north of C$3, rising more than 1,000%. With the falls in the silver price it has now come back more than 50%, and I think it is worth taking a look. Its CEO is both young and competent and he is growing the company in an admirable way so that in 3 to 5 years time you are going to see something much bigger.
It’s my pleasure to sit down with with the man who “gold pilled” me back in the day with his book, The Collapse of the Dollar. James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, has spent five decades working in banking, finance and investments, making the case that gold is not an investment or another commodity, but money in its purest form. We discuss why he believes the US can no longer repeat the Volcker rescue of the 1980s, the relationship between sound money and liberty, and why he expects gold eventually to return to the centre of global commerce as technology changes the way money moves. James’ latest book is Money and Liberty and you can find his IEA paper here. This interview was brought to you by The Pure Gold Company If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
Good Sunday to you, We have a fantastic interview for you today. I sit down with legendary Canadian investor Frank Giustra to discuss gold, government debt and why he believes the world is entering the most dangerous geopolitical period of our lifetime. You can either watch the video or listen as a podcast via Spotify et al.Frank made his fortune in mining and natural resources, before founding Lionsgate Films, the world’s biggest independent film studio. His track record as a businessman and investor is superlative. We discuss why he believes this is no ordinary metals bull market, the accelerating shift by central banks from government debt into physical gold, the risk that another round of quantitative easing could trigger a dollar crisis, and whether gold may ultimately need to be revalued higher, dramaticically higher. We also touch on China, financial repression, critical minerals and why, of everything Frank owns today, gold remains the asset he is most excited about. Money Markets & More is the interview series from Dominic Frisby, exploring money, markets, gold, economics and the ideas shaping the world.🥇 The programme is brought to you by The Pure Gold Company If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com