Science Counterpunch

Chapter 8 - Outbreak: Contained

Science Counterpunch

Show Notes

Note: This is a freely accessible serialized version of Lab Leak Fever. Audio voiceover was AI generated for accessibility. Find an overview of all chapters here or consult the book website for further information. Independent and interdisciplinary science is important. When evolutionary virologist Michael Worobey, a professor at the University of Arizona, got involved in the search for the origins of COVID-19, he had no idea what he got himself into. With a “soft spot for wild theories,” at least according to a former colleague, and a track record of tackling hotly debated theories around dangerous viruses, the renowned scientist is a force to be reckoned with. NPR even called him the Sherlock Holmes of origin investigations for his work on identifying the origin of HIV by hunting for chimpanzee samples in Kisangani, Eastern Congo. A dangerous trip where Mike developed a life-threatening infection after he injured himself and where his mentor, Bill Hamilton, contracted malaria. Only one of them survived. Yet it was critically important work. Mike’s field sampling and phylogenetic analysis, together with that of Prof. Beatrice Hahn, was instrumental in debunking the widely propagated notion that HIV came about from a contaminated polio vaccine trial in the 1950s. They discovered that HIV had its origin decades earlier, before the turn of the 20th century, and was spawned by at least four separate human-chimpanzee contacts that seeded the outbreak near Kinshasa (called Leopoldville in colonial times) and would spread for decades before it was recognized scientifically in the 80s by making people sick in Los Angeles in the US. Based on Worobey’s data, they reasoned that somewhere around 1910, HIV-1 emerged in humans during a period of rapid urbanization and demographic change (Leopoldville was the largest city in the region at that time) and thus was a “likely destination for a newly emerging infection.” In a 2022 podcast conversation with Kristian Andersen, the YouTube science communicator Sam Gregson, and myself, Mike recalled how he had been frustrated by the inconclusiveness of the WHO mission report. The WHO mission opened more questions about the origins that it answered, or at least that had been his impression given the media environment. “I never had a moment where I thought the furin cleavage site needed a non-natural explanation… As an evolutionary biologist, evolution can certainly deal with that pretty aptly,” he explained where he came from. “What was a bit of a curveball to me is that quote here: ‘Market authorities have confirmed that no illegal trade in wildlife had been found’” he elaborated on a different occasion, explaining why he grew hesitant about the market hypothesis. At the time, he was unaware of the struggles the WHO mission had in getting their Chinese counterparts to admit to wildlife being sold at the market. “I have been amongst the most open scientists to this idea that at least some form [of] a lab incident, maybe even with a virus that has not been characterized by the lab, could have infected someone,” Mike Worobey admitted. “So, I sort of initiated this fateful letter in Science magazine.” Mike reached out to virologist Jesse Bloom, a well-known lab leak proponent on the origin question, to organize the letter titled “Investigate the origins of COVID-19” to the journal Science (published in May 2021). They, along with 16 other authors, such as Alina Chan, Ralph Baric, and David Relman were arguing for giving the lab leak theory a “proper” investigation that should be objective, transparent, data-driven, and “subject to independent oversight.” The letter to Science made a lot of waves internationally and contributed to the vibe shift that legitimized the lab leak theory, ultimately prompting the Biden administration to start their 90-day intelligence investigation. Despite giving the impulse, Mike was not involved in drafting the wording of this letter, which came out way more accusatory of C

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