TWIG #402: Xbox Bets on Kojima, Halo Gets Handed to CoD and AppLovin Hits the Road

Is Steal an Egg the real engine behind Roblox’s revenue?This week the crew argues over a Konvoy piece saying Roblox should go private. With the stock well off its highs, $6B in cash and a long-term HD strategy that Wall Street keeps punishing, is a buyout the only way out of the brainrot cycle? We also look at the AI-driven surge of first-time creators on Roblox, Arc Raiders’ new big-update content model, the Liquid Swords shutdown and which genres GTA VI is about to hit hardest.Topics Covered:• Takeaways from our interview with Riot’s CFO• Why Riot’s China revenue mostly benefits Tencent• GDC moves to four days and adds dealmaking space• Gen Alpha plays to be seen, not to disappear• Creator activations and the UA content they feed• 20% of top mobile spenders are looking for their next game• Roblox leads PC and console playtime• Should Roblox go private?• Steal an Egg and revenue concentration on Roblox• AI tools bring a 10x jump in first-time Roblox creators• What Liquid Swords’ closure teaches indie AAA founders• Arc Raiders’ content update and Steam free weekend• GTA VI’s launch threatens shooters, sports and racing gamesCHAPTERS: 00:00 Intro01:21 Banned Topics and AI Jokes01:53 Riot CFO Interview Takeaways02:50 Riot China Revenue Reality10:07 Sponsor Shoutouts Sensor Tower14:14 Roundtable Recap Gen Alpha20:32 Whales as Free Agents Stat23:42 Roblox29:30 Replace Dave Or Go Private31:03 AAA Pivot And Moral Debate34:37 Algorithm And Revenue Concentration37:49 AI Flood Of New Roblox Games44:01 Indie AAA Studio Collapse50:04 Arc Raiders57:35 GTA Launch Shockwave01:02:38 EA Bioware Closure

Riot shipped one game in ten years, then four in the next two. Mark Sottosanti, CFO of Riot Games, was there for all of it. He joined in 2012 as head of monetization after running a hedge fund, and has been at Riot ever since.We start with how Riot went from League of Legends to a multi-game publisher. That covers the 10th anniversary reveal, why five of its seven launches worked, and what Legends of Runeterra and 2XKO taught the team. Then we get into the business side, discussing regional strategy, Korea’s PC cafes, mobile and China, Valorant on console, and why Valorant still has no loot boxes.Mark also explains the real math behind Arcane and how Season 2 broke even, how Riot uses AI today, where he sees the industry heading, and why Riot has never bought revenue.CHAPTERS:00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro01:09 Why Riot Now02:07 Mark Joins Riot04:01 From One Game to Many08:55 Greenlighting and Results13:54 Global Offices Strategy17:54 Mobile Shift and China22:55 Wild Rift and Console25:24 Monetization Philosophy26:39 Arcane and Transmedia ROI34:54 Industry Outlook and Hiring37:18 Hybrid Work and CFO Advice39:36 Wrap Up and Whats Next

Xbox has a franchise problem, and Gears of War E-Day just made it obvious.This week we look back on Mobidictum in Istanbul and argue about why Turkey became the puzzle capital while Sweden didn’t. Then we pull apart Aream’s Q3 report: the M&A number is inflated by the EA deal, the IPO window stays shut, and seed funding is at a five-year low. We also cover the EU’s new action against ten game companies over virtual currency and dark patterns, the panic over US console sales, and Xbox’s new XP division. We finish with the Aniimo launch and why FunPlus held back on monetization.Topics Covered:• Mobidictum takeaways and the Sweden vs Turkey debate• US console sales hit record lows ahead of GTA VI• EU targets ten companies over virtual currency bundles• Aream Q3 report and the real M&A numbers• No IPO market for gaming• AI infrastructure money counted as gaming VC• Steam growth and new IP winning on PC• Mobile installs down and the frozen top charts• Turkey stands out in IAP growth and early stage deals• Gears of War E-Day and the cost of losing the console war• Xbox launches XP for film, TV and products• Aniimo launch numbers and its core loop• Why Aniimo skipped direct creature gachaCHAPTERS:01:58 Istanbul Takeaways04:18 Sweden vs Turkey Debate08:02 Cyprus Event Plug13:47 EU Targets Virtual Currency19:00 Areem Q3 Report34:59 Gears E-Day Franchise Autopsy41:31 Xbox XP48:21 Aniimo Launch and Core Loop52:38 Aniimo Monetization and Costs

Retrofitting AI into a 1,300-person company and building one around it from day one are different problems. Mishka Katkoff sits down with Liaz Kamper, AI Experience Architect at AppsFlyer, and Maor Cohen, CTO of Vibes, to compare the two.00:00 — AI-first vs. AI-native companies06:19 — Transforming an established company with AI16:22 — Building an AI-native organization20:40 — Coordination and shared context26:12 — Building the company’s “AI brain”32:27 — Earning customer trust in an AI-powered world37:40 — Success in AI-native teams45:03 — AI as a tool, not the goal51:48 — Token costs58:56 — How AI is changing jobs66:02 — Closing thoughts on the two paths to AI transformation

AI-made mashups of games like Skate 3 and Modern Warfare II took over social media, and publishers responded with takedowns. Google launched Playground, joining Roblox and Meta in the race to build prompt-to-game platforms. New InvestGame data shows 2026 already has more deals than any year since 2022, but buyers are paying less for each dollar of revenue, and the market has reopened on their terms. We also look at whether the Resident Evil movie actually sold games, and where Xbox is headed after its latest “we’re not selling” statement.Topics Covered:• AI mashup mods go viral and publishers issue takedowns.• Jagex pulls a RuneScape trailer after players spot generative AI.• Google launches Playground, with Unity Spark coming soon.• Roblox Build, Meta Horizon Create and the race for AI UGC platforms.• Gaming M&A picks up, but it’s a buyer’s market.• Circle Games raises a $25M Series A led by Tencent.• Resident Evil engagement jumps 50% after the movie, but the back catalog gets the lift.• The GTA VI cloud streaming deal and Xbox’s “we’re not selling” statement.• SNL’s GTA vs Zelda sketch and Mike Tomlin’s Minecraft city.• Aion 2 is eating someone’s life.CHAPTERS: 00:00 Welcome and lineup02:30 Gaming hits pop culture11:10 Xbox sale talk and hardware woes14:36 AI Mods & Mashups23:14 Google Playground prompt games33:08 Marketing Versus Product Reality40:04 Investments54:07 Resident Evil Engagement58:01 Aion 2 MMO Recommendation59:18 Wrap Up And Next Week