Trump Jr Says BACK OFF • American Odds Shift • Sharps Go Dark | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX
Circles Off - Sports Betting PodcastsShow Notes
This week on Circle Back, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Shipper to break down three stories shaking up the prediction markets and sports betting world. The crew dives into a New York Times report that Donald Trump Jr. privately urged a room of Republican state attorneys general to back off regulating prediction markets, arguing that state pushback was being driven by gambling companies protecting their own turf rather than genuine consumer concerns. The panel unpacks what this closed-door pitch means for the ongoing battle between state and federal oversight of the industry, and why prediction markets have become such a political flashpoint heading into the fall.
From there, the conversation shifts to a major shift in how prediction markets present their pricing, as platforms move away from familiar American-odds formatting toward straight percentages, a change that's got bettors adjusting their mental math and wondering if more platforms will follow. The show wraps with a look at sharp originators pulling their models and ratings out of public view, as some of the most respected names in the space decide their edge is too valuable to keep sharing for free, and what that shift could mean for bettors who've relied on that public data for years.
This episode also marks the final edition of Circle Back Thursday. After more than a year on the air, this is the last time the show will run in this Thursday slot, though Circle Back Monday continues as normal and new content is on the way to fill the Friday spot.
🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/
🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW
LINKS
🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
🔵 Follow Shipper - https://x.com/ShipTheJustice
🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42
🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - The FINAL edition of Circle Back Thursday
1:43 - Originators are going private on prediction markets
11:04 - Prediction Odds begin to remove American Odds
27:28 - Donald Trump Jr. tells Republican state attorneys general to “back off”
36:21 - RAS early releases
42:15 - Worst settlement rules for fights?
50:11 - Taylor Mathis strikes again
53:54 - Chopping Block: A trip down memory lane
1:09:38 - Thank you for watching Circle Back Thursday!
Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
#Predict
More from Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts
Most same game parlays lose because bettors stack two good legs that have nothing to do with each other. In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, full time NBA bettor Calvin breaks down the same game parlay that paid +4000 when some sportsbooks priced a rookie center's blocks and double double as if they were unrelated, and shows how to find correlation the market hasn't accounted for.
A Grandissimo entry worth an estimated $513,333 never got its Week 6 pick in, and the player says his proxy forgot to submit it. That left 14 entries chasing the $7.7 million winner-take-all prize, and then the Rams lost to the Cardinals and the Colts fell to the Titans, wiping out more than half of the Survivor field. Over 1,600 of 2,908 entries were gone in a single Sunday.
How does a professional NBA bettor get ready for opening week? Pips NBA breaks down how he gathers information from the 30 teams in 30 days series and preseason film, turns it into minutes and rotation projections, and focuses on the teams that changed the most, where he thinks sportsbooks are most likely to be wrong early in the season. He also explains how matchups, defensive schemes and coverage types help him find mispriced player props, walks through correlated same game parlay reads, and covers how AI cuts his research time. Plus, how he reacts when a line moves against him, why he thinks top-down betting is drying up and pushing people toward originating, and answers to your mailbag questions on a long shot future, balancing life with the NBA grind, and how he reads questionable tags.
Beating the closing line is the best long-run sign you're betting well, but a lot of what gets called CLV isn't, and even great numbers lose all the time. I used years of NFL and college football line data to show what CLV actually measures, whether the market really gets sharper as kickoff gets closer, and whether you should fade or follow big line moves.
Everyone says AI can help you win at sports betting, but there's a right way and a wrong way to use it. We cover why more context beats a better prompt, why you should always check the steps behind an answer, and how to test a betting idea before you risk anything. Plus, the NFL's latest push on prediction markets at the Supreme Court, viewer questions from our most-watched AI video, and this week's plus EV moves.