What is Anthropic really worth?

Blain’s Morning Porridge 26th, October 2026 “The supreme Art of War is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” Global conflict risks are rising. The wars in Ukraine and the Gulf are the openers. However, a global conflict for hegemonic power between China and the USA is more likely to take the form of “Grey” conflict than outright “kinetics” between them – triggering further inflation threats, political and economic disruption, and supply chain destabilisation driven by ongoing cyber-attacks, fake news and regional conflict. The resilience of nations will be the critical factor – and that means being prepared to defend themselves. Key Takeaways: The potential for geopolitical conflict has become a critical investment consideration. Prolonged strategic rivalry between China and the USA is the reality behind the rash of conflicts and trade frictions destabilising the market and economic outlook. The potential damage to global supply chains, trade, and financial markets of conflict will be huge – but mistakes and miscalculations mean they could happen. More likely is a long term “grey-war” of cyber-attacks, sabotage, political destabilisation, trade dislocations, civil unrest and region/local conflicts to maintain economic pressure while avoiding direct conflict between the two superpowers. A Ukraine “deal” which rewards Russian aggression will achieve multiple goals for China, further splitting the West, diminished confidence in the USA in Europe and reinforcing the lack of European energy security. Resilience will be key investment theme. Nations will need to defend themselves from Grey War and Kinetic attacks by being adaptive, innovative, and do so at cost. Good will be good enough. Europe faces uncomfortable choices between the cost of “Guns” to defend itself vs “Butter” to meet demands for increased welfare spending. Rebuilding industrial capacity and war-winning kit could prove the spark Europe needs for recovery.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 23rd October 2026 “I am going to make you an offer you can’t refuse.” Elon Musk is the richest man in history. With great wealth comes great power and influence. How wisely is Musk wielding that power? Switching off Starlink in Ukraine, threatening Europe with “devastating consequences” on satellite broadband, and whatever deals he doing on the regulation of his companies all beg closer examination. He raises questions about his accountability, and whose interests he serves. Key Takeaways: Extreme wealth is no longer confined to domestic power – Elon Musk shows it can be wielded on the geopolitical stage. His control of Starlinkt, and dollar political funding power is not balanced by accountability. Starlink is now shown to be a Strategic Resource. Musk has demonstrated its power and that he controls it – and it’s in his and America’s interest to limit others from having it. Europe needs to build its technological independence from the USA. Digital and Space sovereignty is critical, especially as Trump, Musk, the Art of the Deal and America First collide in the new America’s stance to the world. Tesla and Space X will shortly merge, giving Musk an enormous payoff, further increasing his wealth without having to deliver on the targets once set him. It deserves closer oversight by government. The points discussed this morning are opinions. Feel free to believe whatever you still do about Musk.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 21st October 2026 “Pride cometh before the fall…” It really does feel the Atlantic Ocean got much, much wider. As Europe struggles with riots and populism, financiers in the USA dismiss Yoorp as irrelevant, and think their economy is doing just great, fuelled by the AI boom and rising earnings. What they miss is the vulnerability of the economy to a debt shock and rising Treasury refinancing risk. Key Takeaways: America’s apparent economic strength masks considerable financial vulnerability – the USA’s high government debt, escalating and persistent deficits, and rising refinancing risk leave it exposed to excessive bond market risk in the event of any loss of confidence. The economies of Europe and the USA diverged after 2008 – creating an impression Europe will remain mired in ongoing sovereign debt crises and lethargic growth. That is reinforced by Europe’s capital markets being diverse and subscale, while the US has benefited from plentiful access to capital (much of it European!) though its highly efficient capital markets. Strip out the scale of US debt, then the scale and pace of the US and European economies are not that different. The size of the AI infrastructure boom dwarfs the risks from other parts of the US economy – making any AI downturn a highly significant risk. Treasury Refinancing risk is the biggest risk to the USA – if inflation remains high and yields continue to rise, the scale of quarterly refinancings to simply stand still will rise. Eventually… something breaks. With 25% of the Treasury market held overseas, the USA’s political stability, and competency to address crisis, are core issues for foreign buyers. If post mid-term gridlock and lawfare erupts after the Midterms it will change sentiment – particularly where the USA is no longer seen as aligned with the core values of Europe. The potential for political disruption, an equity correction, and rising treasury yields to create an “imperfect storm” around the US economy for the remainder of Trump’s term is high.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th October 2026 “Do you hear the people sing? Singing a song of angry men.” The Russians are masters of Maskirovka, the art of distraction, disinformation and misdirection. After sabotaging the transatlantic economy, the next stage is to destabilise Europe and break its resilience by fermenting social unrest, political conflict, and riots. The current waves of protest are likely to erupt across Europe with the potential of triggering a bond crisis, are deliberate and part of a hostile plan to remove Europe from the board. Key Takeaways: A European Sovereign Bond Crisis is a rising risk as riots hit market confidence and cause rates to rise and growth to stall. Genuine social grievances leave Europe vulnerable to Russian manipulation and misdirection – seeking to undermine European unity, diminish support for Ukraine and rearmament, and further split NATO. Russia is indifferent exploing Hard Right and Hard Left grievances to achieve its destabilisation goals. Immigration or Palestine are divisive topics which ferment dispute and conflict. How European Governments counter the deliberate destabilisation is critical, and given the vulnerabilities of Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK to populist parties, will be difficult. If a bond market crisis emerges, the ECB could face distracted European politics and could struggle to contain a chaotic bond market where yields rise and confidence breaks down. The social cohesion of Europe is under threat – and that’s the economic asset that underlies the Euro and the European polity. A crisis will impact European markets, growth, inflation and further fuel political instability.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 19th October 2026 “A walk in the woods will change the way you respond to the everyday enshitification of everything” Markets have a habit of watching the wrong things – which why they are repeatedly shocked by No-See-Ums. Perhaps, the real issue isn’t how economies miss growth or inflation targets, but how miserable or unhappy the electorate becomes? Traditional politics are failing in the democratic nations, while populism is set to create wider instabilities. Maybe it’s time to go “forest bathing” in the autumnal glory and focus on resiliency and satisfaction? Key Takeaways: The real economic crisis is being felt at household level. Markets focus on inflation, rates and outlook in terms of prices, but rising costs and diminished opportunities explain crashing consumer confidence. The political unrest – so visible in France and India – highlight the growing sense of public disillusionment with political failure and corrupt bureaucracy. Populism offers easy answers, but, as Trump is demonstrating, ineffective solutions. The repair of failing state infrastructure and services is long-term while blocked opportunities for all workers (from young to mature) is breeding resentment. Political incompetence will reduce economic strength – while resilient and adaptable nations will exhibit a greater ability to absorb shocks, innovate and adapt themselves out of crisis. The USA’s loss of global standing illustrates incompetency, while Ukraine is example of resiliency. The War in Iran demonstrates how Iran is winning because the USA has failed to achieve its objectives, while Ukraine demonstrates how it is winning by frustrating Russia’s objectives. Social cohesion is a factor in the strength of nations. Political competency and household stability underpin successful economies – and are more important long-term than quarterly earnings or month-to-month growth. This is going to be another… interesting week. Breathe deep. Earnings reports, European inflation and a host of other data lie ahead, but who knows what else is about leap out and mug us all? Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com for access to the full story. If you subscribe to the full Morning Porridge you get the email every morning and links to videos and podcasts…