Read_947 - On Overconfidence

In this breakdown of the Ledger supply chain hack, I walk through how a tiny hardware implant turned legitimate hardware wallets into seed-stealing spy devices. I cover who’s actually at risk, why buying from resellers is a ticking time bomb, and what self-custody conditions are now non‑negotiable for serious bitcoiners. This isn’t the end of self-custody but a painful step we have to take to make it robust enough for the world we’re heading into.

I break down the biggest lie we've all deeply internalized about the economy: that prices are just supposed to go up. In a productive and advancing society, almost everything should actually be getting more affordable over time.

We finally stopped being lazy and brought a guest onto the Roundtable. Max Hillebrand joins Steve, Jeff, and I to talk about the absolute madness happening in the freedom tech space right now.

In this Take, I break down why the biggest AI labs, while deeply unprofitable sitting on massive future compute obligations, are racing toward trillion-dollar valuations. I explore how open-source competition, especially from China, is crushing their moat, and why that pushes them toward lobbying for fear-driven regulation, immunity, and government partnerships. Ultimately, I argue that the AI panic is about preserving a failing business model and building a centralized surveillance infrastructure, and why we shouldn’t be the ones paying their bill.

***"The dollar is going to continue to lose purchasing power. Bitcoin is going to continue to gain purchasing power. It's going to keep on happening over the rest of the century. We will at some point have enough people that have most of their wealth in bitcoin that they don't have anything else to spend and they will start to spend their bitcoin. And when they start to encounter more people like them on the other side of the transaction, they will no longer convert to some other currency on the merchant side for that transaction."