Show Notes
Welsh politics has been shaken by stunning new polling from YouGov and the Wales Governance Centre — and the implications are seismic.
In this episode of Senedd Sources, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan (former adviser to First Ministers Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones) and Craig Lawton (political adviser and Welsh Conservative candidate) unpack a poll that puts Plaid Cymru on 33%, Reform UK on 30%, and Welsh Labour collapsing to just 10%.
📊 Using seat projections, the panel explores: What a historic Labour collapse would mean after 100 years of dominance Whether Plaid Cymru has replaced Labour as the party “standing up for Wales” Why Reform UK is surging, and where its votes are really coming from The battle for anti-Reform voters between Plaid and the Greens Who could realistically form the next Welsh Government — and how Eluned Morgan’s leadership challenge and Labour’s messaging problem Why age, turnout, and tactical voting could decide the election With coalition maths, minority government scenarios, and sharp political insight, this episode explains why the 2026 Senedd election could transform Welsh politics forever.
📲 Get involved: WhatsApp: 0333 404 6507 (start with “Senedd”) Email: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
More from Senedd Sources
Mark Drakeford has delivered a sharp assessment of Plaid Cymru’s first six months in government. But is the new Welsh Government losing its way?
This week on the Senedd Sources podcast, Ollie Cole and Jo Kiernan return from party conferences to discuss:
Is Plaid Cymru’s voter coalition on shaky ground when it comes to Welsh independence? In this episode of Senedd Sources, host Ollie Cole and former First Minister advisor Jo Kiernan are joined by Louis O’Geran from polling firm More In Common to break down exclusive new polling data on Welsh politics post-conference season. We analyse: 🗳️ Plaid Cymru’s Honeymoon Phase: Why key policies like £1 bus fares and NHS surgical hubs aren't cutting through with voters. 🏴 The Independence Divide: Exclusive polling reveals Plaid Cymru voters are split 47% to 44% on Welsh independence. 🌹 The "Burnham Bounce": How Westminster Prime Minister Andy Burnham is winning back Labour defectors in Wales. 🏛️ Budget Battles in Cardiff Bay: Can Plaid secure a budget deal with Labour or the Conservatives? 🟢 Green Party Civil War: The fallout from the England & Wales Green Party conference over foreign policy and nuclear energy. 💬 JOIN THE CONVERSATION: Have your say on WhatsApp! Send your comments/questions to 0333 404 6507 (start your message with Senedd) or email us at [email protected]. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
On this special episode of the Sources Podcasts, we're taking you to Liverpool for 24 hours at Labour Party Conference 2026. Hear the secrets of Political Christmas with Politico's Megan McElroy, More In Common's Louis O'Geran, Labour MP Jonathan Hinder, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting, former Andy Burnham advisor Kevin McKeever and more.
In this episode of the Senedd Sources podcast, Ollie and Jo analyse the latest Welsh political conferences, budget negotiations, and the challenges facing Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru as they navigate their new roles and upcoming elections.