Show Notes
Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Matt on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged 01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed 05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s 11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity? 15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data? 18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy? 21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust 26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise 31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news 33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium 37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances 42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world 48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China 52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen 58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change next Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
More from Top Traders Unplugged
Alan Dunne is joined by Mission Value Partners founder Andrew McDermott to challenge some of the conventional thinking around Japan. Andrew argues that Japan’s supposed “lost decades” look very different when viewed beyond GDP and stock market performance, and that its emphasis on manufacturing, engineering and long-term resilience may now be becoming a major advantage. They discuss the consequences of financialization in the US and Europe, Japan’s role in semiconductors, robotics and AI, and why Warren Buffett’s move into Japanese equities matters. The conversation also explores public debt, domestic capital flows and why Japan could play a much larger role in the global economy ahead. For those who are quick, check out this event featuring Andrew McDermott as well as last weeks guest Jesper Koll: https://mvpnashjapan.up.railway.app/ ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski explore why the changing structure of global markets may be creating a very different environment for trend followers. They discuss why today’s bond selloff may represent a return to normal rather than an anomaly, how declining safe-haven benefits could reshape government debt, and why geopolitical fragmentation may increase divergence across markets. Mark also examines commodity shortages and the conditions that can produce explosive price moves. Finally, they turn to AI and machine learning, asking whether increasingly similar quantitative models are shortening the life of alpha and why trend following may prove unusually durable in an increasingly crowded investment landscape. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----
Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are less threatening than many investors assume, and how labor scarcity, rising wages and corporate reform are reshaping the economy from within. They discuss the return of domestic capital, Bank of Japan normalization and the government’s push into semiconductors, defense and energy. Jesper also makes the case that Japan’s broad economic expansion, industrial strength and accelerating corporate consolidation could make it unusually resilient in a world increasingly dominated by the AI cycle. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----
Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE -----