“We’ve Seen the End of Times”: Tom Michaud on Market Extremes, IPO Red Flags, and 9/11

What evidence do you use when weighing up an investing decision? In this masterclass on capital cycle investing, Wilf sits down with Django Davidson, founding partner and portfolio manager at Hosking Partners – an $8 billion global investment firm focused on the capital cycle approach, an investing philosophy which has led their firm to significant outperformance in recent years. Django breaks down their methodology; how high profits actually attract devastating competition, and in contrast why low returns on capital can provide fantastic entry points to stocks. The key is knowing how to spot the turning points before the crowd catches on. Moving beyond Wall Street's obsession with demand forecasts and growth narratives, Django shares why true contrarian outperformance relies on measuring supply, tracking replacement costs, and understanding industry consolidation. He explains why the era of zero interest rates was an aberration and how the return of a real cost of capital has revived two powerful forces: mean reversion and creative destruction. Wilf and Django discuss Hosking’s early investment in memory chip stocks – Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix – and how the capital cycle investing framework drew them into the space a decade ago, but is also leading them to sell today as a key warning sign – enterprise value to replacement cost – flashes red. They also cover why acute supply shortages in copper and platinum make both metals a core holding for Hosking; why his “Death Of The Brand” thesis a decade ago predicted Nike’s current fall from grace; and why the company’s biggest country bet is on Japan, which they feel is at the start of a long upswing. Recorded 12th October 2026

Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, sits down with Wilf for an in-depth look at global bond markets, central bank policy, and what it means for equities and your portfolio construction. After maintaining a bearish stance on bonds since 2020, Bianco reveals why he has finally stepped back from that call and now sees value in the bond market. With US yields crossing 5% and global rates surging, Bianco explains why bonds are offering fair value for the first time in years, and why strong nominal GDP growth justifies higher rates as opposed to sending warning signs. Despite that major pivot, Jim explains why he prefers long-term TIPS over nominal Treasuries to hedge ongoing inflation risks, and explores the risks to his call that come from surging bond yields in Europe and Japan, which could mean there is more downside to come. Wilf and Jim discuss the evolving nature of the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh including why the unanimous 12–0 September vote to hike rates makes it HARDER for the Fed to re-establish their credibility in the short term, with risks of higher yields as a result through the rest of 2026, and enormous competing pressures on the Fed around their next two meetings, which sit either side of the mid-term elections. They also discuss why rising yields haven’t derailed stocks more; why he thinks Scott Bessent has been forced to make outlandish claims like “I am the house”; why the scale of the US debt problem is overstated; why he is constructive gold, but disappointed by its recent performance; why he loves crypto long term and thinks the failure of the Clarity Act is in fact a good thing. Finally Jim outlines why a 60/40 portfolio is still sensible long term, but not for the reasons you might think, and why the key question for the next stock market crash is not the level prices fall to, but the time they remain there – “a bear market is time, not price.” Follow Wilfred Frost on X: @WilfredFrost Follow Jim Bianco on X: @biancoresearch

In this rare extended interview, Wilf sits down with the famed market contrarian and man who coined the phrase "Magnificent Seven", Bank of America’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett. Hartnett unpacks the structural forces reshaping markets this decade, from ballooning fiscal spending and nominal growth, to the massive rotation away from sovereign debt. He explains why the AI trade now faces a twin threat: bond market discipline on Wall Street and pushback from voters on Main Street. From the Mag 7 shifting from cash-flow machines to spending $1.2 trillion on CapEx, to the historical warning signs from the 1880s railroad boom and the 1990s dot-com bubble, Hartnett provides an unvarnished playbook for navigating today's market regime. Hartnett breaks down the reasons why the equity market has not yet collapsed in the face of spiking bond yields and the importance of the Fed reestablishing its credibility. “Central Banks never run out of ammunition, but they can run out of credibility. The Fed has now been forced to do things to restore its credibility. I think that they're panicking and I think that they'll win.” He reflects on the lessons learned from past stock market bubbles – with particular focus on the Railroad and Nifty50 bubbles which he feels have similarities to today – and answers the question of what pops a bubble? Bonds and social upheaval – which is why he is so focused on the midterms which he feels could derail the AI trade. Finally – the ultimate contrarian – he explains why he lives by the mantra "Buy Humiliation, Sell Hubris" – revealing and explaining the contrarian trades you should have exposure to – certain bonds, China, small caps and real estate.

What happens if the invisible system feeding and fuelling our planet suddenly breaks down? In this episode of The Master Investor Podcast, Wilfred Frost sits down with Ed Conway, Economics & Data Editor at Sky News and bestselling author of Material World and Trade World. Drawing on Ed’s latest book, Trade World, they explore the enormous importance - and growing fragility - of global trade, and why the hyper-efficient, just-in-time supply chains that have delivered decades of cheap goods are increasingly vulnerable to tariffs, geopolitical friction and war. Ed offers some stark warnings about what could happen if the global trading system begins to break down: “So if we were to have a kind of breakdown in global trading system, God forbid, it would make the Global Financial Crisis look like a walk in the park because this is everything.” And, looking at the growing tensions between major powers: “It's not implausible that if things go south from here, people will look back and say this was the foothills for another world war.” At the same time, the fact that the stakes are so high and the world is so integrated encourages him that the cost of escalating conflicts and diminishing trade would far outweigh the upside for world leaders. He also unpacks the ingenuity of trade middlemen who have ensured a resilience to world trade such that while oil prices have risen this year, they haven’t risen as much as worst estimates. “Trade doesn't just stop when a trade barrier is put in place. It adapts and it evolves - it’s like water - it’s very difficult to stop it from finding a level.” They also explore why established industries so often push back against new technologies and innovation; the extraordinary moment in history when technological progress delivered an even greater economic transformation than AI; and why global yields have reached multi-decade highs, how hedge funds are driving the gilt market, and the mechanics behind ending QT. #EdConway ’s new book, Trade World, is available now in the UK and will be released in the US next May.

Thomas Peterffy is worth well over $100bn, making him one of the 20 wealthiest people in the world. He is a markets titan and the founder of Interactive Brokers, and joins Wilf on this week’s episode of The Master Investor Podcast. He breaks down how Interactive Brokers has grown both earnings and its share price by around 40% per year over the past five years, driven by its focus on building the products its customers want. He explains why he remains calm about the rise in bond yields, believes the Fed will hike rates, and disagrees with that decision. Peterffy is optimistic about AI, arguing that fears of a Hindenburg moment are overstated and that AI will overwhelmingly boost the economy and stock market. He points to companies such as Nvidia, which he believes are “cheap” when their earnings growth is taken into account. Wilf and Thomas also discuss prediction markets at length. Peterffy boldly predicts that they will eventually account for the majority of Interactive Brokers’ earnings, explaining the decade-long thinking behind his forecast, including his attempt to buy Kalshi five years ago. Most strikingly, Peterffy reveals the deeply personal rationale behind his massive land holdings across the United States. Drawing on his childhood in communist Hungary, he puts the probability of capitalism faltering in America at 20% and explains why he sees physical land - rather than gold - as the ultimate generational hedge.