Show Notes
Markets are modestly higher after December CPI showed cooling under the hood, reinforcing expectations for a patient Federal Reserve. Futures are mixed, Treasury yields edged lower, and investors are now balancing inflation data against the first wave of bank earnings and policy noise.
Core CPI rose 0.2% month over month and 2.6% year over year, both softer than expected, while headline inflation held at 2.7%. Shelter remained the largest contributor, rising 0.4%, underscoring why policymakers are not rushing to cut rates. Bond markets took the report as confirmation that disinflation remains intact, keeping the Fed on an easing bias without urgency. Concerns linger around tariffs, fiscal stimulus, and measurement distortions, but upside inflation risks appear contained near term.
Earnings season opened with banks sending mixed signals. JPMorgan Chase beat overall expectations, but investment banking revenue disappointed, while trading benefited from market strength. Executives across Wall Street publicly defended Federal Reserve independence, a rare and notable intervention amid political pressure. Meanwhile, Delta Air Lines topped quarterly estimates but offered conservative guidance, pressuring the stock.
Takeaways:
Core inflation cooled, supporting a steady Fed stance.
Shelter costs remain the key inflation variable.
Bank earnings are uneven beneath headline beats.
Fed independence is back in focus for markets.
Travel demand holds, but growth is normalizing.
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