NATO Review: The consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for international security – NATO and beyond

At the NATO Summit in The Hague, NATO leaders recognised that in order to deter any future military conflict, Allies will have to pledge to spending 5% of their GDP to defence (of which up to 1.5% may be spent on defence-related investments). This has created the conditions for Allies to channel robust funding into governmental contracts with the defence industry in order to meet the new Capability Targets that are assigned for each Ally to generate collective effect. To meet these targets and acquire capabilities at pace, NATO now has to greatly increase and optimise the capacity of its defence industrial base. The updated Defence Production Action Plan, publicly released at the Summit in The Hague presents a concrete programme to optimise and strengthen the Allied defence industry, maximise its outcomes and increase Allies’ return on investment.

As the NATO Summit approaches, we stand at a pivotal moment for our Alliance and our shared mission to safeguard peace. The Madrid, Vilnius and Washington Summits already set a clear path for NATO following Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine and a shifting global security landscape. In The Hague, we will evaluate our progress and go even further, cementing our new capability targets and establishing new spending commitments to strengthen our collective defence.

Recent events have solidified the Baltic Sea as an area of critical strategic importance. It serves as a vital maritime trading route, hosts considerable networks of Critical Undersea Infrastructure (CUI), and holds significant potential for the development of new sources of energy. As a result, it is also an area which is highly vulnerable to the increasingly prevalent threat of hybrid attacks – that is, attacks just below the threshold of kinetic warfare, which blur the lines between peace and conflict, such as the sabotage of critical infrastructure.

The defence posture of NATO member countries, which had already dramatically shifted after 2014, was accelerated irreversibly in 2022 with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The trend of boosting defence spending has been witnessed across the Alliance, however, it has been especially strong in the countries closer to NATO’s eastern flank, as Europe has recognised its obligation to share more fairly the financial burden of defending itself. Within this new paradigm, Poland and Germany represent two examples of European countries who are stepping up to this challenge by securing significant defence funding in different yet equally effective ways.

Three years on from the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the values of liberty and volia—a unique Ukrainian word that signifies an unyielding drive for freedom and overcoming obstacles — have remained central to Ukraine’s identity. They say that the true value of something is only fully understood when it is either lost or when one gives everything to defend it. As we endure this war, we Ukrainians fully understand what it means to be free.