Macro Minutes

To hike, or not, that is the question

Macro Minutes

Show Notes

Market pricing for central bank policy rates has been on wild ride. Front-end yield spiked to extreme levels during the initial phase of the oil shock. They are lower now but in some countries painting a very different picture than before the war started. Policy responses will not be uniform across countries but some central banks might be inclined to move pre-emptively while others could wait a lot longer. In episode we discuss why hikes could occur by mid-year in the UK & Europe while the BoC and Fed will be more patient and hold the line. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

More from Macro Minutes

Oct 14, 2026

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Oct 7, 2026

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Oct 1, 2026

Bond yields have spiked globally led by an inter-related combination of oil prices and re-pricing of central bank terminal rates. Momentum and investors exiting long exposure has added fuel to the fire. To put it in context, the one-month increase in US 2y yields is one of the largest over the past 25 years. This has pushed up long term rates and flattened the curve. These dynamics haven’t been isolated to the US market; it is a global phenomenon. For now, risk asset such as equities and credit has been well behaved, but history shows when rates rise sharply and there is an accompanying exogenous shock like oil, that small cracks in macro or markets can grow. Participants: Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics

Sep 29, 2026

For most of 2026, Emerging Market assets held their ground against a wall of external headwinds — but September may mark the moment that resilience finally cracks. A surprise Fed hike, relentless UST repricing, and a USD trading near multi-year highs are draining the confidence that underpinned EM idiosyncratic trades across every region. In this episode, Luis Estrada, Dasha Parkhomenko, and Abbas Keshvani take stock of what is breaking down, what is holding, and how G10 developments are eroding EM resilience. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Luis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist

Sep 17, 2026

The ECB hiked rates a second time in this cycle last week and did not suggest that the 2.50% they previously flagged as top end of neutral will be a key line in the sand. In contrast, the BoE did not hike this week, but left the door wide open to do so – maybe even before the end of 2026. Listen to Peter and Cathal as they dissect both recent meetings and provide an outlook for the rates paths going forward against a difficult energy price outlook. Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist

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