Show Notes
Follow Trita here: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/ Follow Tom here: https://substack.com/@tomswitzer
This week marks 150 days since US and Israeli air strikes hit Iran. Back then, President Donald Trump predicted the campaign would be over within four to six weeks. The Iranian regime would be humbled, perhaps even overthrown. Its missile and drone capabilities would be shattered. Its nuclear ambitions would be set back for at least a generation. And its regional proxy network -- from Hamas and Hezbollah to the Houthis -- would be gravely weakened.
Five months on, the picture looks very different. Tehran has proved far more resilient than many expected. US stockpiles of precision munitions have been depleted. The global economy is under strain. Petrol prices have climbed, America’s Gulf allies are increasingly anxious, and President Trump’s approval ratings have fallen sharply.
What now? Washington lacks the appetite to commit the blood and treasure required for a decisive military victory. Yet it cannot simply disengage without risking a major strategic setback. Is there a realistic pathway to ending this war? Why has Trump appeared to halt his recent military escalation which helped end the ceasefire a fortnight ago?
Trita Parsi is co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and author of A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran.
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