Show Notes
Zack Peng, co-founder and CEO of Seel, joins Lightwork to explain why he treated e-commerce returns as an underwriting problem rather than a logistics one. He was a philosophy and physics major who learned to code at Orbital Insight, where he watched algorithms predict events for hedge funds and insurers, and noticed that payment chargebacks drew heavy investment despite representing under 1% of GMV while returns ran 15 to 25%. Seel started by predicting returns from pre-purchase behavior using roughly 200 signals, including one Zack still finds surprising, which is whether a product photo uses a human model. The conversation gets into the choice to sell the liability rather than the signals, and a go-to-market that is free for brands and paid by shoppers at checkout, where an insurance-backed refund policy sits alongside features like 24/7 support and one-click resale through an agent that lists an item across seven marketplaces. Zack explains why Seel builds agencies rather than agents, arguing that an agency owns the outcome while a product can always blame the user, and why he thinks that accountability gap is what leaves many agentic support tools short of full resolution. He closes on where agentic commerce leaves the shopper, the consumer app Seel built around that, and why he expects a one-person billion dollar brand to stop sounding far-fetched. Chapters: 0:00 Welcome, Zack Peng! 1:45 What Does Seel Do for E-Commerce? 4:21 How Zack Peng Went From Satellites to E-Commerce 6:07 How Does Seel Predict Returns? 7:25 How Seel’s Return Prediction Model Became Profitable 9:05 What Did Seel Learn From Smaller Brands? 11:17 How Does Seel’s Business Model Work? 14:52 Who Is Accountable When Things Wrong? 17:28 Where Does Seel Draw the Line on AI Operations? 18:21 How Will Agentic Commerce Change E-Commerce? 20:07 How Will AI Change the Consumer Shopping Experience? 22:21 The Future of Seel 24:57 Closing Thoughts
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Josh Machiz is joined by Lightspeed partner Amber Yang for a week where agents turned up on both sides of the security line. A security researcher reported that one hacker used AI agents to break into more than a hundred company websites, including John Deere, by running a single prompt across thousands of agents at once. Amber explains what makes that approach work now, and how it differs from an agent swarm. Attackers also forced refrigeration systems at hundreds of French supermarkets to defrost, and a developer used Claude Code to strip preinstalled software off his parents’ TV. Then, Goodfire, a Lightspeed portfolio company, published an essay by researcher Nick Cammarata arguing that neural networks are far more readable than the field has assumed. Amber breaks down what he’s claiming, why it would matter for AI safety, and why it’s still a working hypothesis rather than a finding. DeepSeek and MiniMax both shipped efficiency updates the same week the US moved to remove DeepSeek from civilian federal systems, and Josh and Amber get into what that means for American companies choosing models on cost. They close on the personal agent race, including Claude Duet’s research preview, and Amber’s answer to what she’s looking for as an investor, which involves an unexpected parallel to the early oil business.Chapters:0:00 Welcome to Lightwork1:03 AI Agents Hack 100+ Websites4:09 Hackers Sabotage Supermarket Refrigeration Systems5:16 Using AI to Make Smart TVs Dumb Again7:01 Goodfire: Are Neural Networks Easier to Read?13:29 DeepSeek & MiniMax Race on Cost18:00 The Personal Agent Race: Duet, Muse, Instinct22:59 Amber Yang’s Request for StartupsStay in touch: www.lsvp.comX: https://twitter.com/lightspeedvpLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/lightspeed-venture-partners/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lightspeed/The content here does not constitute tax, legal, business or investment advice or an offer to provide such advice, should not be construed as advocating the purchase or sale of any security or investment or a recommendation of any company, and is not an offer, or solicitation of an offer, for the purchase or sale of any security or investment product. The views expressed by our guests do not necessarily represent the views of Lightspeed. For more details please see lsvp.com/legal.
Meta and Google are making their next moves in the race for frontier AI, Apple is pushing deeper into the smart home, and SpaceX wants to become a major player in mobile. Claire and Josh discuss Meta’s Muse Wonder and Wonder Full models, including the company’s focus on active memory, persistent agents, and keeping its most capable model inside the Muse ecosystem. They also examine Google’s Gemini 4 Argon and its strengths across professional workflows, vision, coding, spatial reasoning, and long-running tasks. Then, they look at Apple’s HomeView and why privacy, personalization, and ambient intelligence could give Apple an opening in the AI-powered home. Plus, they unpack what SpaceX would actually need to become a major U.S. wireless carrier and how a company that controls satellites, spectrum, and broadband could reshape the telecom market. Chapters: 0:00 Welcome to Lightwork 1:04 Meta Muse Wonder vs. Google Gemini 4 5:00 Why AI Agents Need Memory and Focus 6:23 Gemini’s Advanced Reasoning and Task Automation 8:37 Apple HomeView: Siri Comes Home 11:33 AI Privacy and Smart Homes 16:52 SpaceX’s Plans To Be a Carrier 22:12 Zaria $5.2M Seed Round Led By Lightspeed 22:45 Zenzap Comes Out of Stealth Stay in touch: www.lsvp.com X: https://twitter.com/lightspeedvpLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/lightspeed-venture-partners/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lightspeed/ The content here does not constitute tax, legal, business or investment advice or an offer to provide such advice, should not be construed as advocating the purchase or sale of any security or investment or a recommendation of any company, and is not an offer, or solicitation of an offer, for the purchase or sale of any security or investment product. The views expressed by our guests do not necessarily represent the views of Lightspeed. For more details please see lsvp.com/legal.
Reflection co-founder Misha Laskin sits down with Claire Zau in Washington, D.C. to explain why AI labs need a presence in policy conversations and where the open weights debate stands right now. Misha compares closed and open models to renting and owning a home, and says companies that started by renting intelligence are now moving toward ownership. He describes a shift on AI gateways over the past six months from roughly 70 percent closed tokens to a majority of open ones. They also cover some of Misha’s arguments: why China's labs have led on open models, why AI startups want control over cost, compute and data, and why that open source is the safer way to deploy AI. He makes the case through the history of strong encryption and Linus's law, and through the recent incident involving OpenAI and Hugging Face. Stay in touch: www.lsvp.comX: / lightspeedvp LinkedIn: / lightspeed-venture-partners Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lightspeed/...The content here does not constitute tax, legal, business or investment advice or an offer to provide such advice, should not be construed as advocating the purchase or sale of any security or investment or a recommendation of any company, and is not an offer, or solicitation of an offer, for the purchase or sale of any security or investment product. The views expressed by our guests do not necessarily represent the views of Lightspeed. For more details please see lsvp.com/legal.Chapters: 00:00 Why AI Labs Need a Presence in DC01:15 The Open Weights Fight Explained02:09 Closed vs. Open Models: The Real Estate Analogy03:16 Why China Is Leading Open Models05:05 Why Developers and Startups Are Adopting Open Models06:45 AI Safety and the Open Source Debate08:19 Linus’s Law Applied to AI Safety09:26 Why Open Models Are Actually Safer10:44 Open Models in Practice: The Hugging Face IncidentvShifting From Renting AI to Owning It • Shifting From Renting AI to Owning It
Josh Machiz is joined by Shaurya Aggarwal, a partner on Lightspeed's growth team, for the week the West showed up to the open model fight. Reflection unveiled Beam on Monday, and Mistral unveiled Large 4, better known as Le Chonk, on Tuesday. Shaurya explains what open weights actually buy you, why both companies are competing on intelligence per dollar instead of chasing the frontier, and he breaks down mixture of experts in a way that makes the huge parameter counts finally make sense. Only about 5% of Beam wakes up for any given token. Lightspeed led Mistral's inception round and has invested in every round since, and co-led Reflection's Series A.Then DoorDash, which showed a delivery drone it designed itself plus an AI agent you can text to order. Shaurya's take is that the marketplace is the moat, and building its own agent is offense and defense at once against the assistants people already use. On that note, Instinct can now join your group chat, and Meta and Sierra announced an open standard for how personal agents work with businesses. Finally Oura, which called off its Nasdaq IPO hours before pricing despite heavy demand, and what that says about late stage growth investing. Plus updates from RobCo and Avarra. Lightspeed led RobCo's Series B, co-led its Series C and participated in this round, and led Avarra's seed and participated in its Series A.Chapters:00:00 Open Models, Drone Delivery, and AI Agents01:08 Mistral's Le Chonk Meme and Naming Story02:33 What Open-Weight Models Mean for the AI Race03:56 When to Choose Open Models Over Frontier AI05:30 Why Open Models Compete on Cost Efficiency06:35 Mixture of Experts Explained07:32 Is Reflection the DeepSeek of the West?07:58 Why DoorDash Is Building Its Own Delivery Drones09:38 DoorDash's Competitive Edge 12:28 DoorDash's Moat Against AI Agents14:34 Personal AI Agents in Group Chats16:08 How AI Agents Could Change Consumer Spending17:26 Meta, Sierra, and the Future of Personal AI Agents19:56 Oura Postpones Its IPO22:13 Lightspeed UniverseStay in touch: www.lsvp.comX: / lightspeedvp LinkedIn: / lightspeed-venture-partners Instagram: / lightspeedventurepartners The content here does not constitute tax, legal, business or investment advice or an offer to provide such advice, should not be construed as advocating the purchase or sale of any security or investment or a recommendation of any company, and is not an offer, or solicitation of an offer, for the purchase or sale of any security or investment product. The views expressed by our guests do not necessarily represent the views of Lightspeed. For more details please see lsvp.com/legal.Reflection Beam, Mistral Le Chonk & the Drone That Delivers Your Chipotle | Lightwork • Reflection Beam, Mistral Le Chonk & the Dr...
Robotics had a big summer, and it is genuinely hard to tell who is doing what. Claire Zau met with Lightspeed partner Amber Yang in front of a whiteboard to draw the whole market on two axes. How general is the model, and how general is the body. Yang explains what actually changed at the model layer, why robots cannot just be trained on the internet the way language models were, and why she thinks humanoids are not about to get cheap. Roughly 40 to 60 percent of a humanoid build is actuators, and that supply chain runs through China. Then she fills in the map. Dexterity, Tacta and Reflex Robotics building their own models for their own hardware. Ultra skipping training entirely and fine-tuning on Physical Intelligence. Skild and Physical Intelligence chasing one brain for many bodies. Sunday Robotics, 1X and Figure on the humanoid side. She also makes the case for what she calls DeployCos, companies that take someone else's model into places like a restaurant or a nursing home without the customer ever knowing what is under the hood. Her closing point is the one we believe worth sitting with. Robotics still has no shared benchmark, so every company grades its own homework, and in a field this tied to safety that gap may be an opportunity. Stay in touch: www.lsvp.comX: https://twitter.com/lightspeedvpLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/lightspeed-venture-partners/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lightspeed/The content here does not constitute tax, legal, business or investment advice or an offer to provide such advice, should not be construed as advocating the purchase or sale of any security or investment or a recommendation of any company, and is not an offer, or solicitation of an offer, for the purchase or sale of any security or investment product. The views expressed by our guests do not necessarily represent the views of Lightspeed. For more details please see lsvp.com/legal.