S15 EP193: Hour 2 - Dems Stacked Alaska's Ballot With Dan Sullivans, and Republicans Are Texting Their Donors Away

Erick Erickson breaks down Benjamin Netanyahu's surprise comeback in the Israeli election, why early exit polls got the Knesset race wrong, and what it means for polling ahead of the American midterms. Then he takes on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s comments about Arab nations a week before Michigan votes, Abdul El-Sayed's Muslim Brotherhood ties, the 2002 UN Arab Human Development Report, and JD Vance on the unrest in France. Erick also explains why he is leaving one Georgia ballot line blank, his predictions for the Senate and House, and the Atlanta Dream versus Golden State Valkyries WNBA Finals scheduling mess. Israel election: Netanyahu and Likud lead, his coalition drops from 68 to 54 seats, exit polling errors, Knesset coalition math, and a possible caretaker government Midterm election 2026 predictions: Republicans hold the Senate, lose the House, why polling overstates Democrats, Ken Paxton in Texas, and Patrick Ruffini's data Why Erick is leaving a Georgia Senate ballot line blank, Mike Collins, and the case for keeping the Senate for judges and a possible Clarence Thomas retirement Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Arab culture, Abdul El-Sayed and the Muslim Brotherhood, Mike Lawler on CNN, and the UN Arab Human Development Report on book translation JD Vance on rioting in France, immigration and assimilation, Democrats and post-election protests, plus Atlanta Dream versus Golden State Valkyries WNBA Finals and caller Charles on endless campaign calls

Erick Erickson digs into the Nielsen numbers showing Fox News headed for its lowest October in years, with just 98,000 viewers in the coveted 25 to 54 demo, and explains why populist movements like MAGA rarely survive the departure of the big personality, from Huey Long to Zell Miller to a post-Trump 2028 fight over Donald Trump's term limits and JD Vance. Then he takes calls on the Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, why pastors stayed silent in the primary, early voting panic in Georgia and Michigan, and the Federal Reserve holding off on a rate hike until December. Fox News ratings collapse: Nielsen October numbers, a 32 percent drop in the 25 to 54 demographic, News Nation gaining, and why Erick says he refuses to be captured by his audience Populist movements after Trump: Huey Long, Zell Miller, the two term limit and the 22nd Amendment, JD Vance, 2028 presidential campaign talk, and the future of MAGA Texas Senate race: Ken Paxton versus James Talarico, undecided voters breaking for the incumbent party, and why Erick faults Texas pastors for staying quiet in the primary Midterm early vote: more than 33 million ballots cast, Michigan at one in five voters, Georgia passing two million early votes with weak rural turnout, and Patrick Ruffini on border state Republicans Federal Reserve holding rates until a likely December hike, Trump on working with a Democratic House, Christians killed in Nigeria, and Erick's warning about Carl Schmitt on the right

One week before Election Day, Erick Erickson breaks down Donald Trump's nonstop midterm campaign swing, why 13 visits to Kansas is a red flag for Roger Marshall, and how tariffs, diesel prices, fertilizer costs, and Canadian aluminum are hurting Iowa farmers and Republicans. He also digs into Georgia early voting numbers, the Anthropic Claude voter data controversy, the Los Angeles early ballot court fight, and why he expects a possible Democratic House takeover while urging listeners to stay calm, vote, and look ahead to 2028. Trump's closing campaign tour, 13 Kansas visits, Roger Marshall, Texas, Georgia, Florida, and the GOP House majority Tariffs, diesel and fertilizer prices, Iowa farmers, Canadian aluminum, and the Maine tariff waivers for Susan Collins and Mike Rogers Georgia early voting data (1.95 million ballots), rural turnout, and the Claude-built website and Anthropic paywall controversy Midterm forecast and 2028: Democrats and the House, Senate races with James Talarico, Ken Paxton, Mike Rogers, and Sherrod Brown, Hakeem Jeffries, JD Vance, Brian Kemp, and Ted Cruz The Invesco QQQ Atlanta Gridiron Classic rant: the Georgia Florida game rename and corporate sponsorship in college football

Erick Erickson explains why the Senate candidates with their own brand, Susan Collins in Maine and Mike Rogers in Michigan, are beating the ones who are only known as Donald Trump's pick, from Mike Collins in Georgia and Michael Whatley in North Carolina to Ken Paxton in Texas. Then he turns to Florida, where Democratic socialist Angie Nixon's Cuba embargo answer and a criminal referral over $270,000 missing from her charity are dragging down the whole ticket, plus Attorney General James Uthmeier's Sinaloa Cartel takedown in Tampa Bay. Midterm Senate races: Susan Collins, Mike Rogers, Ken Paxton, James Talarico, Mike Collins, Michael Whatley, Sherrod Brown, and why a candidate needs his or her own brand Scott Jennings and Van Jones on CNN: Abdul El-Sayed, Barack Obama's Detroit rally, black voters, Jewish voters, and Michigan early vote polling Georgia, Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa: Rick Jackson, Keisha Lance Bottoms, Greg Abbott, Ashley Moody, Vivek Ramaswamy, and the 2018 Brian Kemp lesson Angie Nixon: Florida Democratic Senate nominee, the Cuba embargo, Obama era policy, Cuban Americans, and the National Legal and Policy Center complaint over her charity Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, the Sinaloa Cartel drug ring, Tampa Bay arrests, and Erick's golf trip with the Golfer's Journal Broken Tee Society

Erick Erickson unpacks Barack Obama's Cheesecake Factory joke from the Abdul El-Sayed rally in Michigan, why Donald Trump taking the bait four times hurts Republicans, and why the left's sneering at the middle class and small business owners is the real story. Then he reads the early vote one week before the midterms: Republicans leading in Nevada and Florida, the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton tied, Susan Collins in Maine, Mike Rogers in Michigan, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and a first look at the Israeli election and Benjamin Netanyahu. Barack Obama's Cheesecake Factory and White House gold leaf jab, Trump's four responses, and Scott Bessent's Cheesecake Factory lunch The left's snobbery toward the middle class and small business owners, Boeing and Apple tariff relief, and Honda warning of a 50 percent tariff on Canadian auto parts Israeli election day: Benjamin Netanyahu in trouble, a surge in Arab Israeli and young voters, and what the media will get wrong Early voting a week out: Republicans ahead in Nevada and Florida, Byron Donalds over Dave Jolly, Greg Abbott's Texas turnout machine, and why late undecideds break for the incumbent party Senate map: James Talarico versus Ken Paxton, Susan Collins versus Troy Jackson, Mike Rogers versus Abdul El-Sayed, Sherrod Brown, Vivek Ramaswamy versus Amy Acton, and Matt Towery's warning on the GOP closing message