
Show Notes
Someone sent me a reel asking if this is a real strategy: every January, buy last year's best stock in the S&P 500, hold it a year, then swap. Shout out to Ricky, @the.steady.investor. I ran it back to 1998. Your $10,000 hit about $48,500 by the end of 1999, then fell to about $1,400 by 2011. You trailed the S&P 500 at the end of every year from 2001 to 2023. Then NVIDIA and Palantir more than doubled, and you finished 2025 at about $252,000 against $117,000 for the index, in US dollars. Change whose list of winners you use and the same idea ends anywhere from about $84,000 to $810,000. Whole countries went the other way. Over 50 years of developed markets, buying last year's best country turned $10,000 into about $1.5 million. Owning them all in equal shares got about $2.3 million, and last year's worst got about $91,000. Old data can fit almost any story. One researcher showed butter production in Bangladesh explained about 75% of the S&P 500's swings. Please don't buy sheep. Momentum is real in the research, which buys hundreds of recent winners at once, and published edges shrink by about 58% once everyone knows. About 4% of US stocks created all the market's gains over treasury bills from 1926 to 2016, and 98.8% of Canadian equity funds trailed the TSX over the 10 years to 2025. 3 things I'd keep 1. Own the whole world as your base, with low-cost market index funds. 2. Tilting toward momentum, value or profitability? Have a reason that holds up once everyone knows it, and be ready for it to trail for 10 years. 3. Where you rotate matters. In a regular account, half of every gain you sell is taxed. In a TFSA or RRSP the switch isn't taxed. More at calmmoneycoach.com, and my email list is free. I'm Brian Orlando, CPA, in Halifax. Advice-only planning through Calm Money Coach. No products, no commissions. Before fees, trading costs and taxes. My backtest of yearly S&P 500 winners, Ken French country data, Leinweber, McLean and Pontiff, Bessembinder 2018 and SPIVA Canada Year-End 2025. Education only. #investing #indexfunds #sp500 #personalfinancecanada
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Four videos on the bigger Canadian picture. Why the number at checkout keeps climbing: the dollar, climate, how few companies sell our groceries, and housing. Why 140,457 Canadians filed for insolvency in 2025, the most in 16 years. What 100 years of income tax actually built, since it arrived in 1917 as a temporary war measure. And whether Canada's math still works for the people now in the middle. More at calmmoneycoach.com I'm Brian Orlando, CPA, in Halifax. Advice-only planning through Calm Money Coach. No products, no commissions. Education only, not advice for your situation.
Is Canada heading into stagflation? Prices were up 3.1% in September, unemployment is 6.5%, and groceries cost 33% more than in September 2020. Stagflation is prices jumping while the economy stalls. It followed the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, and in 1981 the Bank of Canada's rate went past 21%. Economists say we're nowhere near that today. Leave gas out and prices are up 2.2%, and the Bank's rate is 2.25%. It stings more than it should because growth was already slow. In 1984 a Canadian worker produced about 88% of what an American did per hour. By 2022 it was about 71%. Part of that is how the country was built: 13 securities regulators, different trucking rules at every provincial border, and a Supreme Court case over 14 cases of beer. The IMF says clearing the barriers between provinces could add close to 7% to the economy over time. There's real building too. Less of what we sell goes to the US, Trans Mountain runs nearly full, Darlington has a small nuclear reactor underway, and LNG Canada approved doubling its size. And 76% of small business owners plan to exit within 10 years, with only 9% holding a succession plan. 4 things I'd do 1. Build or protect your emergency fund. 2. Keep the savings habit alive, even $50 a month. 3. Invest in yourself and point it at work that's hiring: a trade, nursing, a credential, a side business. 4. When prices ease or a raise comes in, send part of it to savings first, into a simple low-cost global ETF. And keep living. A potluck still counts. My free retirement calculators come with my monthly email at calmmoneycoach.com. I'm Brian Orlando, CPA, in Halifax. Advice-only planning through Calm Money Coach. No products, no commissions. Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, IMF and CFIB, read October 2026. Photos: Robert T Bell (Darlington), Colin Rose (Supreme Court), Brett Jordan (Tamagotchi), CC BY 2.0. Education only. #stagflation #inflation #canadaeconomy #personalfinancecanada
Canada doesn't have an estate tax like the US. We tax death a different way, and it reaches a lot more regular families. Take 2 cousins. Doug in Regina and Chad in Dallas each put $2 million into index funds, and today each pile is worth $10 million. Chad's playbook is buy, borrow, die. He never sells, borrows against his shares to live, and when he dies the US resets the cost of those shares to their value that day. The $8 million of growth is never taxed, and the US federal estate tax only starts above US$15 million a person. The US Treasury puts that reset at about US$40 billion this year. Canada dropped its estate tax in 1972 and started taxing gains at death. Doug is treated as if he sold everything the day before he died. Half the gain counts, and at Saskatchewan's top rate that's about $1.87 million. In St. John's it's about $2.14 million. Probate adds about $70,000 in Saskatchewan, $149,000 in Ontario and $169,000 in Nova Scotia. Manitoba dropped its fee in 2020. A spouse defers it all, and the family home is exempt. Far past US$15 million, the US takes 40% of every dollar over the line. Big US estates paid about 19% of their value, about the same as Doug. 4 things I'd keep 1. Use your TFSA and name your spouse as successor holder, or a beneficiary. In Quebec, do it in your will. 2. Draw your RRSP or RRIF down in lower income years. A $1 million RRIF left to your kids adds about $475,000 of tax. 3. Keep your will, beneficiaries and power of attorney up to date. 4. Enjoy your retirement first, then give cash while you're alive. Canada has no gift tax on cash. Pitched life insurance or a family trust to cut the bill? Ask what it costs and who it's built for. My estate guides are in my community at calmmoneycoach.com, and my email list is free. I'm Brian Orlando, CPA, in Halifax. Advice-only planning through Calm Money Coach. No products, no commissions. US: IRS and US Treasury, read October 2026. Canada: 2026 top rates and each province's probate schedule. OECD 2018. Parliament Hill photo: Saffron Blaze, CC BY-SA 3.0. Education only. #estateplanning #estatetax #tax #personalfinancecanada
Which province is cheapest? It depends on who's asking. In part 1, I take the typical full-time wage in each province and work out what's left after tax and the bills. In part 2, I run a young family through all 10 provinces and 3 territories. Part 1. Montreal came out on top with about $24,000 left a year. Calgary was next at about $23,000. Halifax came last at about $14,000, and yes, I checked that twice. Pay and rent move the most money. Tax matters more as your income goes up. Sales tax, groceries, power and car insurance mostly cancel out. Part 2. The Canada Child Benefit is the same everywhere, about $13,400 a year for a family on $60,000 with 2 kids under 6. What changes is what your province adds, from about $6,100 in Quebec to nothing in 6 provinces and territories. Daycare moves the most money: about $10 a day in 5 provinces and Nunavut, more than double in Ontario, and about $13,700 a year reported in BC for 2 kids. For 2 parents on $60,000 each, Vancouver costs about $15,000 a year more than the cheapest 5 cities. 5 things I'd keep 1. Compare what's left after tax and bills, on the pay you'd earn there. 2. Pay and rent move the most money, and tax matters more as your income goes up. 3. With young kids, a raise is worth less and an RRSP or FHSA contribution can pay you back more. 4. File a tax return every year, both parents, even with no income. 5. Open an RESP. Ottawa adds 20 percent. Money is only part of where you live. Your family, your friends and the view aren't on my spreadsheet. My province calculator is in my community at calmmoneycoach.com, and my email list is free. I'm Brian Orlando, CPA, in Halifax. Advice-only planning through Calm Money Coach. No products, no commissions. Pay: Statistics Canada. Rent: CMHC Rental Market Survey, October 2025. Tax: 2026 federal and provincial rates. Benefits: CRA, July 2026 to June 2027, and each province's own page. Daycare: each government's fee page and Statistics Canada, 2025. Bills: my Cheaper Province model, October 2026. Yellowknife photo: Quintin Soloviev, CC BY 4.0. Education only.
Probate on a $1 million estate costs $0 in Manitoba and about $14,000 in New Brunswick. It's usually the smaller of the 2 bills your family pays. Probate is the court confirming your will and your executor. Each province and territory sets its own fee. Alberta and the territories charge $525 at most, Manitoba charges nothing, and in Quebec a notarial will skips it. Ontario, BC, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick charge around 1.5 percent of what goes through the will. Take Elaine, 80, in Moncton, leaving $1 million to her 2 kids. Her house goes through the will, and the principal residence exemption usually means $0 tax on it. Naming her kids on her RRIF and TFSA keeps both out of probate, which takes her probate from about $14,000 to about $8,000. The RRIF is still fully taxed on her last return, about $140,000. Her total income tax is about $150,000 either way. The popular ways to skip probate usually cost more than the fee. A segregated fund at close to 3 percent a year to dodge a 1.5 percent fee once is valet parking every day to avoid 1 parking ticket. A trust costs $3,000 to $15,000 to set up plus a return every year. Adding a kid to the house title can put the principal residence exemption at risk. 3 things I'd keep 1. Probate is a court fee your province sets, on what goes through your will. 2. Check who's named on every RRSP, RRIF, TFSA, pension and insurance policy. 3. Income tax is usually the bigger bill, and a retirement plan that lines up with your estate plan is where you can shrink it. My estate guides are in my community at calmmoneycoach.com, and my email list is free. I'm Brian Orlando, CPA, in Halifax. Advice-only planning through Calm Money Coach. No products, no commissions. Probate fees from each province's and territory's schedule, read October 2026. Tax at 2026 federal and New Brunswick rates. Quebec RRSP, RRIF and TFSA designations follow Quebec rules. Education only.