Show Notes
The EU has gone through seven waves of enlargement since 1973, but there has not been one since Croatia joined in 2013. Indeed, there are not likely to be any new members in the club before 2028 – some 15 years after Croatia entered. But 2026 undeniably has momentum, and is on track to be a record year in terms of opening and closing new chapters for existing applicants. That is why our guest, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, sees this as "the year of the enlargement." "Montenegro, which is really the frontrunner, could finish technical negotiations at the end of the year, and then become a member in 2028," Kos says. "Albania is well on the way. Moldova is delivering better and better and, of course, also Ukraine. So these are the four frontrunners. But when we say that this is the year of the enlargement, I mean that in the nine months of this year, we have opened and closed more chapters than in any previous year in the last 25 years." But there's a distinction between the frontrunner and the best student. Kos says that Moldova "is the best performer in my class," taking into account that it started the process much later than applicant countries in the Balkans. Speaking of the Balkans, Kos admits that there is uneven implementation of reforms, which could lead to €330 million in EU funding shifting away from the weakest performers. "We will see how much money we will reallocate," Kos says. "Montenegro, for instance, has a 91 percent implementation rate of reforms to date. But then we also have Bosnia and Herzegovina with a zero (rate), because their politicians are not able to ratify two important agreements which would enable us to pay the money," Kos explains. "You know, our European Union is not a charity. So in order to be able to help their economies and societies to develop, they have to deliver the reforms, and we only give the money if they are doing this." We turn to Serbia, which has been an EU candidate since 2012, but which has had a turbulent relationship with Brussels. According to Kos, "the trust between EU member states and Serbia was broken even more with the glorification of the war criminal Ratko Mladic at his funeral, which is really unacceptable. And that's also why I cancelled my planned mission to Serbia. We can have different opinions on how fast a country should make reforms. But there is no space for the glorification of a war criminal, or for denying the genocide in Srebrenica. We expect all the EU candidates, especially those from the Western Balkans, to walk the way of reconciliation. But sometimes I have the feeling that, instead of healing the wounds of the past, leaders are rubbing salt into those wounds." Of course, enlargement is not only about the EU's closest neighbours. While Georgia's EU bid has stalled, Armenia is increasingly eyeing EU membership as an attractive option – even though it has not formally applied. "We are helping Armenia, especially now when Russia stopped importing many Armenian products. So we are helping Armenia to redirect its exports to the European Union. We are also in the process of visa liberalisation. This means that Armenians would be able to travel to the EU without a visa. So now they have to align a lot of legislation, and they are doing great work. I'm full of admiration for the people of Armenia. It is not easy but, with the result of the last parliamentary elections, they have clearly shown that they want to be on the European path."
More from Talking Europe
Estonia's counterintelligence service has recently warned that sabotage operations orchestrated by Russian special services have reached a new and dangerous phase in Europe, with targets no longer being purely symbolic. Talking Europe sits down with the country's foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, to discuss the security situation in Estonia and the European Union in general. Speaking of undercover operations against Estonia attributed to Russian special services, Tsahkna says: "We have witnessed terrorist attacks, sabotage attacks, against the defence industry companies. We just attributed, three weeks ago, one serious attack against our defence industry company organised by the Russian secret services. We caught these three guys. They are in prison now. We see an increase in the number of these attacks. But we also see that they are not against the Baltic States as much as against Europe as a whole. We (in the Baltics) are not at the top of this list. Russia is increasing the pressure on Europe. This is about terror attacks, sabotage attacks, cyberattacks, and any kind of disinformation to divide our unity and to divide our societies as well." Tsahkna distinguishes between this hybrid war and Russia’s actual military capabilities, which he implies have been degraded by its involvement in Ukraine. "When I served as a defence minister in 2016-2017, we had permanently 120,000 Russian troops on the other side of our borders, very close, ready to go within 48 hours. These troops were literally sent to Ukraine; they are not existing anymore. They are dead," he says. Tsahkna goes on: "We know exactly what to do on the military level. We have NATO troops. Actually, French troops are located in Estonia. They are 100 percent integrated with our troops. We have very solid NATO regional defence plans. So this is not the main concern. The main concern now is to keep all of us in Europe united. And we need to understand that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is testing all of us. He's very carefully watching how we are acting, how united we are, how we are responding." On diplomatic moves to try to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine, Tsahkna warns that Europe cannot, and should not, become a kind of neutral arbiter. "Europe is taking part in initiatives, and we just had a meeting in Oslo, together with the US representative and President Zelensky and also the Nordic presidents, prime ministers and the Norwegian prime minister, " Tsahkna says. "So it's not about whether Europe is connected. Of course, we must be there. But we must also understand the position. We cannot let ourselves be dragged into the mediating position that Putin really wants: appointing a special envoy and then trying to mediate between Ukraine and Russia. So we are part of the process, of course, but we are not in the mediating position, a so-called neutral position, in which we would somehow stop our sanctions or give the frozen assets back to Russia. So this is important to understand. " Tsahkna also has a few observations about the recent protests, violence and unrest in France. "Elections are coming next year in France that are so important for Europe," he notes. "Of course, using violence is not a solution. And in Estonia we have been paying a lot of attention to keeping our society united, not divided. How to not go to the way of radicalisation. Because divisions in society are making you weaker as a country and as a nation. But of course, it's a matter for France and for the French how to have this dialogue about the future. You know, I'm coming from [the] north. We are very calm people!" Programme prepared by Oihana Almandoz, Isabelle Romero, Perrine Desplats and Ahmed Hassaine
A marathon EU summit on October 15-16 failed to produce a breakthrough on the European Union's next long-term budget. Although EU leaders put on a brave face at the end of the talks by saying that "the way forward is clearer", EU capitals appear deadlocked on what that path is. At stake is the EU's ability to finance its strategic priorities from 2028 to 2034. The main dividing line is between the so-called "frugal countries", who want deep cuts to the proposed budget, and the "friends of cohesion", who say that cuts are not the answer. The clock is ticking, not least because next year will see 10 parliamentary or presidential elections in EU member states, which could well change the political balance across the bloc, while the European Parliament will have its say as well. We delve into the issue with two MEPs. Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Perrine Desplats and Oihana Almandoz
Our guest is veteran French journalist and commentator Bernard Guetta, who is a Member of the European Parliament for the centrist Renew group. He tells the programme that Donald Trump is "a liar, because he tried to tell the American people that Zelensky and the Ukrainian resistance were responsible for the price of diesel. This is a pure lie. He (Trump) is responsible because he started the war with Iran." Guetta goes on to say that "without American intelligence sharing, Ukraine is weaker and weaker. That's terrible, to see the president of the United States giving a hand to Putin against Ukraine." Programme prepared by Oihana Almandoz, Perrine Desplats and Isabelle Romero
As the international context becomes more challenging for the European Union, the bloc is looking to boost its ties with like-minded allies. Canada is part of that architecture that the EU says it wants to build. The big news of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's State of the Union speech in September was that Canada could become an associate member – an arrangement that does not exist for the EU's partners at the moment. The EU-Canada summit, set to take place at the end of October in Montreal, might provide some clues as to what this enhanced relationship will look like. We delve into the topic with two MEPs. Programme prepared by Oihana Almandoz, Isabelle Romero and Perrine Desplats
2020 was an annus horribilis. Covid stalked the land. Lockdowns, curfews and social distancing were the order of the day. But there was a silver lining: European countries showed themselves to be capable of great solidarity, jointly procuring vaccines and then agreeing on a mammoth post-Covid recovery fund, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). That fund has disbursed €450 billion in grants and loans to EU member states since 2021. As the RRF enters its crucial final phase, we take stock of the situation with Pierre Moscovici, the French member of the European Court of Auditors (ECA). The ECA has just presented a report on the health of the EU's finances, which also talks about the implementation of the RRF. Moscovici says that the creation of the Covid recovery plan "was a crucial decision. Some people, and I was one of them, had been arguing for Eurobonds, for common borrowing, in order to invest together in Europe. And this was never possible due to some political positions between member states and the EU Commission. And finally, because of Covid, this was done. This was called Next Generation EU. It was the idea that we could borrow together some €750 billion in order to sustain growth, to be capable of facing the consequences of Covid. And this was absolutely a success. Some countries, for example Spain or Italy, massively benefited from this fund and were able to recover swiftly." Moscovici elaborates: "The question is, is this a one-off, or should we do that again? Should it become permanent? Should it also inspire the Multiannual Financial Framework (the EU's long-term budget) that the member states and the Council are now preparing? Because if we want to do that again – that's what Mario Draghi (the author of a seminal report on EU competitiveness) is proposing that we do massively. He believes that we need to have €1.2 trillion worth of investments in defence, in greening the economy, in order to face the future. But to do that, we also have to know what has been working in the RRF and what has not been working." Moscovici sums up: "The Recovery and Resilience Facility now also has to be evaluated not only on what has been disbursed, but also on the results. And that's what the European Court of Auditors is wondering or examining or evaluating with facts and findings. So our main concern and our motto is 'let's go to results'." Moving onto broader economic issues, Moscovici highlights the problem of debt, both at the EU and at the national level. "There two different things," he explains. "The one thousand billion euros of debt (that is projected to be reached in 2027) refers to the European Union. And then there is the problem of national countries. In France we have a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120 percent. That means that the servicing of debt is over €90 billion a year. The consequences of that are clear. When you have so much to reimburse, you cannot finance pensions, health, research and innovation, or schools. We are now in a in a crisis with education. We are in a crisis with the price of energy. That's the consequence when a country is indebted. The EU is not in the same situation. It still has a triple A (rating). But what the European Court of Auditors has flagged is that the EU has a debt as well. It is significant. The repayments will last for decades. And we must take care of that debt." Programme prepared by Agnès Le Cossec, Perrine Desplats, Oihana Almandoz and Isabelle Romero