(Preview) Brussels and Beijing Make a Deal; Weak Holiday Spending Data; Xi’s Reported Rest Breaks; Peak Dove?
Sharp China with Bill BishopShow Notes
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an extended survey of EU-PRC trade dynamics in the wake of an eventful week. Topics include: a deal on hybrid exports that may have averted a trade war, potential loopholes that may complicate the effectiveness of that reform, the tools proposed by France and Germany that may have forced a compromise, tensions that remain unresolved as the EU Council meets later this week, and a word on currency reforms as the PBOC rejects international methods for assessment. From there: Holiday spending per trip hits a four-year low amid analysis that suggests debt may be constraining stimulus measures. At the end: reactions to a report on Xi’s rest breaks at the White House, Xi succession questions, a report on the F-35 mishap, and speculating on the future of US-China relations and whether the current administration has passed peak China dove.
More from Sharp China with Bill Bishop
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of proposed export controls from Beijing on AI related technologies, solar components, and machinery, as well as continued angst surrounding Japan’s rare earth access. Then: Reactions to strong Q3 GDP numbers in the PRC, continued stock market struggles, questions about GDP targets, and speculation about the agenda for next week’s Fifth Plenum. At the end: The EU signals a willingness to continue protectionist measures in new sectors, a report on new investment deals between the US and China, a potential Putin-Xi-Trump, sanctions on China’s version of Y Combinator, and a Politico report on OpenAI’s suddenly restrained export control lobbying, which spawns a variety of thoughts on the state of US chip policy.
On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through Xi Jinping’s trip to Washington last week, including low expectations that were met, lots of pageantry in between, why both sides are incentivized to preserve stability for now, and how Mao Zedong’s writing on “strategic stalemate” may inform Xi’s understanding of the current moment. From there: A Taiwan weapons controversy, panda deliverables, and thoughts on Xi’s plan to recruit 100,000 young Americans to study in the PRC over the next five years. At the end: Shared language on Iran, limited progress on AI, trolling intrigue in the East Room and at the National Archives, new Bloomberg reporting on travel restrictions for AI talent and the continued tax crackdown, and more signals that the central government recognizes the economy is struggling.
On today’s show Andrew and Bill discuss Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States and what to expect in Washington D.C. this week. First: Reactions to the meeting between Scott Bessent and He Lifeng in New York City Sunday, including outstanding questions about the “hotline” that was mooted for AI, details that remain fuzzy on the board of trade that’s been “operationalized,” and lingering rare earths frustration that may or may not delay an extension of the Busan truce. Then: Xi’s agenda in D.C., why asymmetric pageantry is fine, the PRC business delegation that failed to materialize, questions about Taiwan, Iran and Chinese automakers, and a note on Min Zin as he remains detained in China. At the end: Protesters and counter-protesters in New York City, the September Politburo brings the official expulsion of Generals Zhang and Liu, and evidently unfounded Xi rumors make their triumphant return at the BRICS Summit in India last week.
On today’s show Andrew and Bill look at several dimensions of the PRC’s approach to AI. First: The various reasons a push for an agreement with U.S. labs to “pace” AI development is unlikely to bear fruit and the history of the CPC’s approach to control over technology. Then: The head of the MSS offers a view into CPC concerns around political security risks and data risks, while Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposes a misguided framework for forcing Chinese compliance with a slowdown agreement. From there: The U.S. reiterates its complaints about Chinese companies conducting “industrial-scale” distillation of U.S. AI models, while Anthropic suggests sensitive PRC data was shared with Claude. At the end: A law broadening exit bans goes live, the New York Times reports Chinese social media “getting dark,” while the Wall Street Journal highlights an influencer scandal captivating netizens.
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a perspective on PRC strategy under Xi, including what the party wants from global institutions, how the PRC differs from the U.S., and political security as a paramount priority. Then: Thoughts on the heartbreaking flood at the Nepal-Tibet border, including the party’s response, censorship and data sharing, and the realities of the geography in question. At the end: A raft of U.S.-China stories: the PRC scuppering a G20 joint communique, Anthropic and AI safety questions, notes before Xi’s visit in three weeks, waiting for better evidence that the PRC is shaping U.S. data center discourse, and TikTok dodges the China Select Committee.