Show Notes
It's been a while between trips, but last week Trivium's Head of Markets Research, Dinny McMahon, was back in Beijing. In this podcast, he and Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk discuss Dinny's observations and takeaways from the trip. After dissecting the vibe on the street, the gents get into: Where there might be some potential for investment growth this yearWhy the only thing that will unlock household spending is a housing market recoveryThis one is short and sweet, so please enjoy this fun-...
More from The Trivium China Podcast
China’s GDP growth rose to 4.5% y/y in Q3, after slipping to 4.3% in Q2. That puts it right at the bottom edge of Beijing’s 4.5–5% target range. On the surface, that looks like a real pickup. A closer look tells a less encouraging story. Nearly all of the growth came from China’s record trade surplus, which rose almost 30% y/y. Consumption and investment added very little.Joe Peissel calls it “hollow growth.”On this episode, Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) fills in for regu...
On October 8, the PBoC published an essay – in both English and Chinese – defending China’s exchange rate policy and pushing back on foreign calls for the RMB to appreciate. Just like MofCom’s July essay on overcapacity, the piece takes aim at the fundamental premise of Western policymakers’ complaints rather than answering them directly. Beijing has now taken two key economic issues that advanced economies keep raising – the currency and overcapacity – and essentially said “suck it up, we’re...
Back in July, when the Politburo met to discuss economic policy, officials signaled little more than incremental policy tweaks were on the horizon. But fast forward to early October, and Beijing has rolled out a slate of support measures, including a fresh debt quota for local governments, more policy bank lending, and new interest subsidies for mortgages. Dinny McMahon calls it a clear pivot – Beijing is now more concerned about the economy than it was a couple of months ago.That said, the r...
For the first time in recent memory, a senior Chinese economic official is really pushing the idea that China needs to control its debt-to-GDP ratio. In a recent Qiushi essay, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng laid out why credit growth has to slow.Trivium made this call back in July, when deleveraging sounded like a wild idea given how weak the economy is. Dinny McMahon’s take: “We feel quite validated.”On this quick-reaction episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk sits down...
When Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called on US labs to pace the AI frontier, Washington said no – and so did Beijing. In fact, Chinese state media outlet China Daily went further, calling Amodei’s suggestion a “self-serving bid for profit.”The back-and-forth has led to an ongoing debate around whether China takes AI safety seriously. Kendra Schaefer’s take: China does take AI risk seriously – but what it won’t accept is the premise that its own progress is the problem.On this episode of the Tri...