The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, breaks down why a broader equity bear market may already be underway beneath surface-level index strength. Deluard unpacks the approaching stagflationary squeeze, driven by persistent wage pressures, slowing fiscal subsidies, and a looming political gridlock that strips away both monetary and fiscal safety nets. He outlines a tactical rotation out of equities and into long-term Treasuries over the next six months, capitalizing on year-end liquidity, pension fund rebalancing, and debt ceiling constraints. Finally, the conversation looks abroad to the escalating fiscal spiral in France and the broader structural crisis facing the Eurozone, mapping out why currency devaluation or fragmentation may be inevitable.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:03 Bear Market Call

02:58 Why Treasuries Now

07:12 Secular Inflation View

08:46 AI Bubble and Taxes

11:38 Fiscal Boost to Margins

14:55 Sarmaya LENS ETF

16:22 Fed Stagflation Trap

24:53 Oil Shock Tail Risk

29:24 France Debt Spiral

34:55 Euro Devaluation Fix

40:07 Weak Euro Politics

43:53 Euro Designed for Crisis

48:34 ECB Tightening and Succession

52:33 Brazil Election Shock and Flows

56:12 Brazil Terms of Trade Tailwinds