Show Notes
US index futures were steady Friday after a quiet week of delayed data and selective earnings reactions. Investors head into the final full trading week of 2025 watching for a soft-landing read on 2026 growth, Fed rate-cut timing, and whether breadth can keep expanding beyond mega-cap tech.
Big banks led 2025’s surprise winners: the KBW Bank Index rose about 28%, powered by strong trading and dealmaking, a less restrictive regulatory backdrop, and a yield-curve un-inversion that supports net interest income. The debate now shifts to 2026: can loan growth reaccelerate, and does a pickup in regional-bank M&A reward stock pickers over index exposure?
AI also broadened into “picks-and-shovels.” The playbook focuses on data-center construction, cooling, grid and nuclear-linked utilities, plus defense and late-stage biotech as potential 2026 tailwinds tied to spending and M&A cycles.
Trending tickers: Oracle (ORCL) jumped on a signed TikTok US joint-venture deal, Nike (NKE) slid on weak guidance, FedEx (FDX) rose after topping estimates and lifting its profit-floor outlook.
Takeaways:
Banks outperformed in 2025; 2026 hinges on lending and deal flow.
Deregulation expectations stay a key financials catalyst.
AI leadership may rotate toward infrastructure and power.
Nike’s reset highlights uneven consumer and China demand.
FedEx cost actions show up in guidance, not just headlines.
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