Show Notes
Blain’s Morning Porridge October 6th, 2026 “Athletes want to be the best, and want someone to pay for it.” The threat list to markets has suddenly expanded – plague, protests and increasing signs the AI boom is a damp squib. However, Sporting Investment remains a hot sector – which may require some tweaking as the full implications of the Man City financial scandal emerge. Durable sporting value requires sound corporate governance, managing the money to ensure competitive integrity, a growing and excited audience, and a clear flow of players from the grass-roots to the big leagues. Key Takeaways Suddenly there are a lot of new threats on the board – from slowing markets, AI failing to land, Plague, and riots across Europe. Sport has become a thriving sector for esoteric private investment, boosted by a sports finance class selling billionaire investors vanity investments they can effectively monetise for power and profit. That market is developing. Sporting assets are not liquid assets, but many prestige sporting brands are said to be “quietly” up for sale. Sport appeals to the population because of its exceptional participants, and is marketed as the pinnacle of personal achievement, excellence and fair-play. There is great commercial and (for some investors) soft-power strategic value from sporting franchises. Some selling may be driven by scandal – and a lack of good corporate governance creating a sense some sports are not a level playing field. Advisors to the owners of Man City, the English football team, broke rules around financial fair play to win the league by hurling money at the team. Man City demonstrates the world’s most competitive league (The EPL) is vulnerable to financial power to build dominance – which was why rules on financial fair play were brought in by UEFA and the League. Supporting fair play should be a corporate governance objective. It’s taken 8-years for the league inquiry to get this far, and probably as long again to exhaust the appeal process. Meanwhile, strategic national interests between the UK and the owner state are also in play. Across the rest of the sporting sector, potential investors need to be aware of the importance of grass roots investment and media exposure to make the long-term economics, participation and support for top level sports viable. Interesting world we live in – for now… I feel the earth shift under my feet… this market is getting… tremulous. Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com for access to the full story. If you subscribe to the full Morning Porridge you get the email every morning and links to videos and podcasts…
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Blain’s Morning Porridge 21st October 2026 “Pride cometh before the fall…” It really does feel the Atlantic Ocean got much, much wider. As Europe struggles with riots and populism, financiers in the USA dismiss Yoorp as irrelevant, and think their economy is doing just great, fuelled by the AI boom and rising earnings. What they miss is the vulnerability of the economy to a debt shock and rising Treasury refinancing risk. Key Takeaways: America’s apparent economic strength masks considerable financial vulnerability – the USA’s high government debt, escalating and persistent deficits, and rising refinancing risk leave it exposed to excessive bond market risk in the event of any loss of confidence. The economies of Europe and the USA diverged after 2008 – creating an impression Europe will remain mired in ongoing sovereign debt crises and lethargic growth. That is reinforced by Europe’s capital markets being diverse and subscale, while the US has benefited from plentiful access to capital (much of it European!) though its highly efficient capital markets. Strip out the scale of US debt, then the scale and pace of the US and European economies are not that different. The size of the AI infrastructure boom dwarfs the risks from other parts of the US economy – making any AI downturn a highly significant risk. Treasury Refinancing risk is the biggest risk to the USA – if inflation remains high and yields continue to rise, the scale of quarterly refinancings to simply stand still will rise. Eventually… something breaks. With 25% of the Treasury market held overseas, the USA’s political stability, and competency to address crisis, are core issues for foreign buyers. If post mid-term gridlock and lawfare erupts after the Midterms it will change sentiment – particularly where the USA is no longer seen as aligned with the core values of Europe. The potential for political disruption, an equity correction, and rising treasury yields to create an “imperfect storm” around the US economy for the remainder of Trump’s term is high.
Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th October 2026 “Do you hear the people sing? Singing a song of angry men.” The Russians are masters of Maskirovka, the art of distraction, disinformation and misdirection. After sabotaging the transatlantic economy, the next stage is to destabilise Europe and break its resilience by fermenting social unrest, political conflict, and riots. The current waves of protest are likely to erupt across Europe with the potential of triggering a bond crisis, are deliberate and part of a hostile plan to remove Europe from the board. Key Takeaways: A European Sovereign Bond Crisis is a rising risk as riots hit market confidence and cause rates to rise and growth to stall. Genuine social grievances leave Europe vulnerable to Russian manipulation and misdirection – seeking to undermine European unity, diminish support for Ukraine and rearmament, and further split NATO. Russia is indifferent exploing Hard Right and Hard Left grievances to achieve its destabilisation goals. Immigration or Palestine are divisive topics which ferment dispute and conflict. How European Governments counter the deliberate destabilisation is critical, and given the vulnerabilities of Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK to populist parties, will be difficult. If a bond market crisis emerges, the ECB could face distracted European politics and could struggle to contain a chaotic bond market where yields rise and confidence breaks down. The social cohesion of Europe is under threat – and that’s the economic asset that underlies the Euro and the European polity. A crisis will impact European markets, growth, inflation and further fuel political instability.
Blain’s Morning Porridge 19th October 2026 “A walk in the woods will change the way you respond to the everyday enshitification of everything” Markets have a habit of watching the wrong things – which why they are repeatedly shocked by No-See-Ums. Perhaps, the real issue isn’t how economies miss growth or inflation targets, but how miserable or unhappy the electorate becomes? Traditional politics are failing in the democratic nations, while populism is set to create wider instabilities. Maybe it’s time to go “forest bathing” in the autumnal glory and focus on resiliency and satisfaction? Key Takeaways: The real economic crisis is being felt at household level. Markets focus on inflation, rates and outlook in terms of prices, but rising costs and diminished opportunities explain crashing consumer confidence. The political unrest – so visible in France and India – highlight the growing sense of public disillusionment with political failure and corrupt bureaucracy. Populism offers easy answers, but, as Trump is demonstrating, ineffective solutions. The repair of failing state infrastructure and services is long-term while blocked opportunities for all workers (from young to mature) is breeding resentment. Political incompetence will reduce economic strength – while resilient and adaptable nations will exhibit a greater ability to absorb shocks, innovate and adapt themselves out of crisis. The USA’s loss of global standing illustrates incompetency, while Ukraine is example of resiliency. The War in Iran demonstrates how Iran is winning because the USA has failed to achieve its objectives, while Ukraine demonstrates how it is winning by frustrating Russia’s objectives. Social cohesion is a factor in the strength of nations. Political competency and household stability underpin successful economies – and are more important long-term than quarterly earnings or month-to-month growth. This is going to be another… interesting week. Breathe deep. Earnings reports, European inflation and a host of other data lie ahead, but who knows what else is about leap out and mug us all? Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com for access to the full story. If you subscribe to the full Morning Porridge you get the email every morning and links to videos and podcasts…
Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 16th, 2026 “Markets are not smart or intelligent, but they are very efficient at converging on the wrong conclusions.” It’s been a bad week in the AI markets. Suddenly folk are waking up to the growing gap between inflated expectations and disappointing revenues, and the risks which include competition. It’s a pattern that reoccurs repeatedly in markets. The name to watch will be CoreWeave – illustrating what can go wrong when blithe assumptions about fantabulous upside ignore the rules of financial commonsense. A default or troubling rescue is on the cards. Key Takeaways AI is a key technology of the future, but the path to riches seldom runs smooth. The AI Investment Bubble is running well ahead of commercial adoption as businesses figure out how best to harness its power effectively and economically. CoreWeave is the potential catalyst for an AI reset. It is the canary-in-the-coal mine showing how revenue growth is failing to cover rising debt costs. Strong demand for AI Services in a competitive and price-inelastic market (remember the Chinese do AI too!), does not guarantee success when capex, opex and debt costs are rising – Accounting 101. Nvidia’s infamous circularity financing of chip sales to datacentres could magnify losses. Nvidia is down nearkly $300 bln this week! It highlights the risks of being an investor in what you supply – making it a leverage play on GPU demand (which is a function of price and competition)! A collapse in Chips could trigger a reset across the private capital markets based on the number of deals secured on chips, compute and infrastructure, now on the books of captive insurance firms.
Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 15th, 2026 “Be certain that those who will betray you once will betray you again.” Ukraine was stabbed in the back yesterday. Its defenders found their access to Starshield and Intel on incoming missile strikes suddenly blocked. Trump is saying nothing – but it's increasingly clear the orders came from POTUS. Trump is furious that Zelensky refuses to surrender Ukraine to his good chum Putin. It represents a new nadir of the Trump presidency. Key Takeaways: Trust in America has taken a global battering after Trump used his Kill-Switch to leave Ukraine defenceless. The alleged withdrawal of Intel and Starlink support is seen as a fundamental breach of trust by NATO allies. It will have massive implications on future working relationships and warfighting coordination within NATO functions – European nations will never be entirely certain the US will honour its commitments. Trump thought he would get away with sacrificing Ukraine for a short-term bolster to MAGA’s electoral prospects in the Midterms – pretending the deal with Russia would bring down diesel prices. (It will benefit his family through the deal Jared Kushner has struck to buy Lukoil!) Instead, Trump has further unravelled the USA’s geopolitical credibility. It will have market consequences as demand for US weapons, financial services, and confidence in the dollar and Treasury market slumps as Europe faces up to America as “unreliable.” Trump appears to have taken the decisions to deal with Russia, and to deny Ukraine intel and Starshield, without reference to his cabinet or military advisors – creating speculation he is either unfit for office, or even a Russian asset. The coming midterms may now become a vote on Trump’s leadership and judgement. American’s can decide if what is good for Trump is good for them, or what is good for freedom and democracy is better for America in the long run.