Australian CPI to put RBA on a Knife-Edge

Wednesday 28th October 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Phil and NAB's Skye Masters break down a risk-on session across global equity markets set against a tense, pivotal day for monetary policy. Wall Street rallied—led by a 2.2% surge in the Nasdaq and broad tech strength—fuelled by news of mega-cap chip-financing deals and solid US consumer confidence readings. The primary focus, however, turns squarely to domestic macro data, with Australian Q3 CPI arriving today. With markets pricing in roughly a 60% probability of an RBA rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day, Skye explains why NAB sees downside risks to the consensus 1.0% trimmed mean expectation. Across global central banks, attention turns to meetings for the RBNZ, Bank of Canada, and the FOMC, alongside the delivery of the UK budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.