
Show Notes
The “engine” of the U.S. economy is starting to crack—and real estate is already feeling the effects. Just last week, we touched on the hidden “recession” affecting many Americans. Today, we’ve got even more data to back up that analysis. Americans are at a breaking point, and the long-term trends are not looking good for spending, GDP, the economy, and real estate.
If you feel economic strain, you’re not alone. We just hit a level of low confidence that hasn’t been seen in 70 years. So, how is the economy still growing? How is GDP still rising? Why haven’t we seen a traditional recession with high unemployment, stock market declines, and a pause in consumer spending? It’s not a question of “why not,” but “when will it happen?”
If you invest in real estate, this will affect you. Home prices, rent prices, and activity in your local market will change. Dave is sharing the markets where investors are quickly leaving, the others seeing the most money pour in, the property types that still make sense in this market, and what to prepare for so your rentals weather any economic storm.
In This Episode We Cover
New economic data showing just how worried the average American is about the economy
How consumer confidence problems can quickly seep into the housing market
What to do now to start preparing your rentals for a slow season ahead
The reasons why the average American is struggling so much in 2026
How is GDP still growing when consumer confidence is so low?
What (and where) investors are buying in 2026 (property types, markets, etc.)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
On the Market 427 - The 2026 Recession Is Here
On the Market 429 - The Ultimate “Stress Test” for the Housing Market: Do We Pass in 2026?
Redfin: Investor Home Purchases Fall to Lowest Level Since 2020
Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-431.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More from On The Market
The affordability crisis isn’t improving. Gas is above $4 per gallon, inflation just hit 3.7%, and paychecks aren’t keeping pace. This is a tough spot for the American economy, but why does it feel like we’re getting hit on all sides of the affordability spectrum? Today, I’m breaking down the American household’s affordability crisis, and whether it’s a modern spending problem or something much, much deeper.
Commercial real estate prices have fallen 20%-50% from their peaks just a few years ago—but the slide may not be over yet. A “second wave” of the commercial real estate crash is on the horizon now that interest rates are back around 7.5%, and struggling multifamily, office, and commercial investors who thought a long-term refinance would save them are now in a stickier spot.
The housing market isn’t going back to “normal” anytime soon. In fact, it could take significantly longer than many of us thought. Rates are around 7.5%, median home prices hover near $400,000, but your salary is not keeping pace. Something needs to change: is it rates, prices, incomes, or a combination of all three?
A Fed official says what we’re all thinking: home prices must drop—and sellers seem to have gotten the message. Per a recent Redfin report, 44.7% of home sales included seller concessions such as price cuts, rate buydowns, covering closing costs, or even renovations, repairs, and expensive layout changes. So, if you’re a buyer, how do you get the most from your seller on the next deal?
America could enter what nobody wants—a “lost decade.”