Show Notes
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Sonali joins the podcast on the one-year anniversary of moving from Bloomberg to iCapital, discussing her media series “The Bridge” and iCapital’s reach across wealth and asset managers. The conversation centers on AI economics, especially how declining token costs shift value along the “AI food chain,” with hyperscalers capturing a large share while software and enterprises benefit as costs fall, and with demand (Jevons paradox) potentially sustaining aggregate spend and CapEx. They address rising APAC innovation, why frontier labs pursue IPOs amid heavy cash burn and broad access to debt and equity, and the new NVIDIA-led $500B compute financing platform as Wall Street crowds into AI while investors struggle to diversify as infrastructure, power, and data centers converge. They discuss abundant 2026 liquidity that may tighten, oil’s impact on consumers and second-half caution, hedge fund crowding and the situational awareness leverage unwind, valuation dispersion (semis vs financials/utilities), and rate risks including Treasury basis-trade leverage, a 10-year yield range of 4–4.8%, Japan’s carry trade, and selective interest in Japan and parts of APAC for international exposure.
-- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.
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The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.
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More from On The Tape with Danny Moses
On On the Tape, James Aitken of Aitken Advisors recounts writing “Notes From a Small Island” for decades and describes his work helping institutional and high-net-worth clients ignore noise, stay patient, and capitalize on dislocations. In a macro backdrop of higher debt, inflation, wars, and concentrated equity leadership, he says bonds—especially parts of the Treasury curve and TIPS—now offer unusually attractive risk-reward, though they may hedge less reliably in a higher-inflation regime and could challenge risk-parity positioning. Aitken argues a government-underwritten AI and national-resilience CapEx boom is inflationary near term, with markets increasingly scrutinizing leverage and downstream project economics. He critiques Scott Bessent as buying time in Treasuries and expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to keep hiking to re-anchor inflation amid Middle East-driven energy risks. He views the dollar as supported by global asset-allocation inertia, stresses judgment over AI tools, and praises Mark Carney’s pragmatic reforms and efforts to attract capital to Canada.
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Danny, Vinnie and Porter are joined by R.P. Eddy, founder and CEO of the global intelligence and advisory firm Ergo, and co-author of Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.
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Danny Moses welcomes back Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, for a deep dive into what's really holding this market together — and where the cracks are starting to show. Cameron explains why the S&P has held its 50-day moving average through war, higher oil, and a more hawkish Fed, and why that resilience comes down almost entirely to earnings. But she digs into a more troubling story underneath the Mag 7's earnings growth: deteriorating earnings quality, accounting maneuvers (reclassified leases, extended payables, one-time investment gains from stakes in companies like Anthropic and SpaceX), and a multiple that's compressed from 23x to 19x as a result. They cover the credit market's early warning signs in CCC-rated bonds, the "crowding out" effect as hyperscalers shift from self-funded to debt-and-equity-funded AI capex, why voters aren't punishing politicians for record deficits (yet), the stock market's growing role as the economy's real pressure point, and positioning in bonds, the dollar, and gold heading into next week's Fed and Bank of Japan decisions.