Chlöe Swarbrick: Green Party Co-Leader discusses campaigning, coalitions, wealth tax, economy on the Mike Hosking Leaders Breakfast
The Mike Hosking BreakfastShow Notes
Greens Co-Leader Chlöe Swarbrick believes any dip in the polls as a result of the party’s association with gangs would have already been seen, but argues voters are more interested on other issues. Two polls this week show the Green Party holding its 14-16% vote share of recent months. The polling period of both polls captured in its final days the saga concerning last week’s resignation of Labour candidate Kerrin Leoni for campaigning at a gang event, which came after MPs from Te Pāti Māori and the Greens did the same. Swarbrick told Mike Hosking on the Leaders Breakfast she would have expected any impact to have been seen in polls this week, and believes voters were more interested in issues such as the cost of living. Asked about Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruling out many Green Party tax reform policies and ruling out giving the party some ministerial positions, Swarbrick insisted the relationship between the two parties was good and “collaborative”, noting she and co-leader Marama Davidson had regular conversations. However, she acknowledged the declining “direction of travel” for the two major parties, which she believed made the rule-in, rule-out conventions nonsensical. Swarbrick didn’t provide a clear answer when questioned on what her party might be able to secure in coalition negotiations regarding tax reform. Labour has promised no new taxes aside from its capital gains tax, whereas the Greens have proposed extensive tax reform, headlined by a wealth tax. While she encouraged people to vote for what they wanted, Swarbrick said, “of course we’re going to compromise". Swarbrick appeared confident her party would retain the three electorate seats it won in 2023, but also felt it likely the Greens would win Te Tai Tokerau and Christchurch Central, which was a long-time Labour seat. On Opportunity, Swarbrick wasn’t sure how much of the Greens vote had been lost to Qiulae Wong, saying the party’s support seem to be “flowing in from everywhere”, reiterating how Opportunity could support the current governing parties and how it wasn’t a guaranteed vote to change the Government. She observed that voters were “exhausted” and sick of the “tit-for-tat nonsense”. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
More from The Mike Hosking Breakfast
Israel's future governance is still up in the air, with parties on all sides falling short of the required 61 seats. With most votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu's holding a narrow lead over rival Gadi Eisenkot, with 53 seats to 48. The Arab parties have surged to a record 19. ABC News Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran told Mike Hosking we could see parties from either bloc break away to form a coalition. He says there's already speculation of Netanyahu trying to form a unity government with Eisenkot, who's campaigned for most of the year for him to go. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
ACT Leader David Seymour is cautiously confident the coalition could have speedier post-election negotiations this year, compared to 2023. National, ACT, and New Zealand First took 40-days to strike a deal after the last election. Both the Leaders of National and Labour have promised to try to finish negotiations by Christmas, but no firm promises have been made. Seymour told Mike Hosking on the Leaders Breakfast he can't speak for his colleagues in NZ First or National, but they have experience on side this time. He says himself and the other party leaders all know each other and have worked together. Seymour acknowledged compromise is necessary but says their proposal to remove tax from KiwiSaver is an important aspect of their policy platform. He also made it clear though that proposals by potential partners for compulsory KiwiSaver are a "non-starter". He didn’t express regret when asked about the level of reform the Government had been unable to progress, again pointing to the need for compromise. When asked if this morning’s RNZ Reid Research poll putting National below 25% was an outlier, Seymour didn’t provide a direct answer although noted Reid Research in 2023 had National lower than what it ended up on election night. Seymour argued ACT had “come of age as a party”, lauding the efforts of his ministers in Government. He believed ACT candidate James Christmas would win the Tamaki seat and likened National’s current candidate to Simon O’Connor, who lost the long-time National seat to Brooke van Velden in 2023. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Reserve Bank is keeping a close eye on several factors as it weighs up whether to hike the Official Cash Rate before Christmas. The Monetary Policy Committee voted, four votes to three, to hold the cash rate yesterday. The shock decision has had an immediate impact on exchange rates, with the already weak Kiwi dollar seeing its biggest drop against the Aussie in almost a decade. Governor Anna Breman told Mike Hosking they're monitoring both weak household consumption here at home and uncertainty abroad. She says the geopolitical tensions are high, fuel prices are volatile, many countries have high debt levels, France is facing widespread protests, and there are risks from the AI investment boom. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The figures keep defying the reality. 68,000 votes were cast on Monday. That day was a problem according to the conspiracy theorists who suggested that not only had enrolling closed early, but the opening day of voting was a public holiday and for some reason voting on a day off may prove to be some sort of issue. At 68,000, that is more than in 2023. So what does that mean? Nothing. But you could suggest it's an early turnout, which means a bigger turnout by the time this is over. A bigger turnout would be welcome because we should all be interested in democracy and, more importantly, actually participating in democracy. It's one thing to enrol, and here is the real story that the conspiracy theorists might like to spend more energy on: enrolment is not as important as turnout. Being on a roll isn't as important as actually voting. Last time only 77% turned out. That’s not great. You need to well and truly crack 80% for a good day at the office. The conspiracy folk need to be careful because when this washes out, they run the risk of looking like nutters. Trevor Mallard mouthing off on social media about his hall being closed, then banging on about voter suppression, had 'tin hat' written all over it, not to mention his inability to google a polling place that was open. My guess, if you want one, is an early flourish of voting indicates my long-held suspicion that this is one of your more predictable elections. This is a bloc election. The bloc that runs the place deserves three more years, or not. There are not actually a lot of game-changing policies. There is a lot of small policy designed to get daily clicks from the media. I'm convinced the vast majority of us know who we are voting for and have known for some time, so day one was a chance to tick a box and get on with life. My great hope is it continues, turn out is high, the Mallard's and tin hatters get back to their Telegram feeds and if the left lose, they don’t use it as an excuse. Because that would be what a sore loser would do. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 28th of October, we look at what the Reserve Bank is likely to do with the OCR today and how it might affect an election campaign. The Prime Minister pops in after the long weekend to talk early voting numbers, alleged voter suppression, and what the polls are saying. And on Politics Wednesday, Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell talk their electorates, the Fire and Emergency CEO's resignation and the confusion around whether Rakesh Naidoo is under investigation or not. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.